Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 69.75 units
Units Won = 83.80 units
Profit/Loss = +14.05 units (20.1% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Thursday 17 April
Brisbane v Richmond
7:50 PM AEST, GABBA, Brisbane
View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v Richmond
With no footy again this Good Friday, Round 5 kicks off on the Thursday night with a fairly uninspiring matchup between last placed Brisbane and 14th placed Richmond. The winless Lions were awful last weekend against Port Adelaide as they became the first team to lose by over 100 points this season. Richmond weren’t as bad, but the Tigers did make many errors and were well beaten by Collingwood.
Brisbane lost two of their most important players to injury last week. Ruckman Matthew Leuenberger damaged his knee and fleet-footed wingman Pearce Hanley injured his hamstring. Both players have been ruled out for the next few weeks. Richmond are still without elite midfielder Brett Deledio, while tall utility Tyrone Vickery has been dropped following a disappointing personal display last week. Vickery’s axing seems a little harsh to me given the man with the flamboyant hairstyle kicked a match-winning 4 goals in Round 2 against Carlton, propelling the Tigers to their only win this season.
Richmond have won their past 5 matches against Brisbane, which includes three successful raids to this venue. It seems like the Lions are struggling more than the Tigers this year too, so I am tipping Richmond to pick up a vital four points to keep in touch with the top 8 after a sluggish start to the year. The head to head odds are not good for the Tigers, and given they are out of form, I am not keen to make a margin bet.
I do like a play on Jack Riewoldt to kick the most goals though. The Lions have been unable to contain opposition key forwards this year with Jarryd Roughead kicking 5 goals against them in Round 1, then a rainy day helped mitigate Tom Hawkins’ output in Round 2, before the Lions defence conceded 4 goals to Sam Day a fortnight ago and 7 goals to Jay Schulz last week. With Vickery out, Riewoldt will be Richmond’s go to man inside 50 and that should see him have plenty of goal scoring opportunities.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jack Riewoldt for most goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Note: Previews for the remaining Round 5 matches will be published on Friday morning.
Betting Summary (after Round 4)
Round by Round
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Round Net Result (Units) |
Round % Profit |
Cumulative Net Result |
Cumulative % Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
14.41 |
41.2% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.625 |
-29.4% |
9.785 |
19.3% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
14.045 |
20.1% |
Bet Type
| Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
| H2H |
8 |
7.31 |
| 2-leg Multi |
5 |
5.25 |
| Supercoach player H2H |
1 |
3 |
| Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
| Goals Pick Your Own Line |
3 |
1.75 |
| Dream Team Individual Line |
1 |
1.74 |
| Line |
10 |
1.56 |
| Second Half Line |
1 |
0.9 |
| Either Team 15 points or less |
1 |
0.825 |
| 25 points or more |
1 |
0.82 |
| 16 points or more |
1 |
0.68 |
| Most Disposals in Group A |
3 |
0.3 |
| Most Disposals in Group B |
4 |
0.25 |
| Dream Team Group |
1 |
-0.5 |
| Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.5 |
| Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.5 |
| Either Team 24 points or less |
2 |
-1.5 |
| 39 points or less |
9 |
-1.55 |
| Win Q4 |
1 |
-2 |
| Most Goals |
5 |
-2.75 |
| Total Match Score (line) |
4 |
-3.59 |