AFL Round 8 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 126.5 units
Units Won = 130.03 units
Profit/Loss = +3.53 units (2.8% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.


Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Total match score under 170.5 in Port Adelaide v Fremantle game @ 1.88

Michael Hibberd Most Possessions Gr2 of Brisbane v Essendon game @ 3.75

1 unit @ combined odds of 7.05 (Sportsbet)


Friday 9 May

Hawthorn v Sydney

7:50 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Sydney

A week after Dale Thomas took on his old side, massive media interest has again built up a meeting of old friends as ex-Hawthorn talisman Lance Franklin comes face to face with his former club for the first time since he traded brown and gold for red and white. Both Franklin and Thomas made the switch after being seduced by big-fat contracts that could not be offered by their former employers. Franklin has certainly not been an instant hit at Sydney, with his off-field activities gaining more attention than anything he had done on game day. This is demonstrated by the fact that ‘Buddy’ is averaging only 2.0 goals per game this year, which is his lowest return since his debut season in 2005.

Sydney and Hawthorn have been regular finals rivals in recent years, crossing paths in each of the last three Septembers, with the most notable occasion being the 2012 Grand Final that was won by the Swans. Because of their finals battles, both sides will have a mutual admiration and respect for each other, and each will know they will have to perform near their best to win. It should be a hard-fought contest.

Hawthorn have been in devastating form this year and thrashed St Kilda by 145 points last week to return to the top of the ladder. The only concern for the Hawks is their ability to defend against the power forwards of the competition, with this problem exposed against Geelong on Easter Monday when Tom Hawkins dominated the final quarter to propel the Cats to victory. This perceived weakness could be thrust into the spotlight again this Friday night as key defender Brian Lake injured his ankle last week. Lake’s absence means Ryan Schoenmakers will be required to play down back this week and ‘shaky’ Schoenmakers has a reputation for making costly blunders at crucial times. The Swans have signalled their intention to exploit this area of the ground by recalling fit-again forwards Franklin and Kurt Tippett.

Hawthorn will be further handicapped by the absence of midfielder Sam Mitchell to a hamstring injury. Mitchell is the Hawks best ball winner and his absence, along with the continued unavailability of Brad Sewell will give Sydney the upper-hand at the stoppages. Although Hawthorn will have the advantage in the ruck through Ben McEvoy, with Sydney’s number one ruck Mike Pyke also ruled with a hamstring injury.

Their respective form-lines don’t suggest it, but the team news almost swings this match back to line ball. Given the Swans are big underdogs, I will plump for them to cause an upset win.

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Sydney to win by 39 points or less @ 3.30 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Josh Kennedy Most Possessions Gr1 @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)


Saturday 10 May

Port Adelaide v Fremantle

1:45 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Fremantle

Following Friday night’s mouth-watering clash, the early Saturday fixture also looks like one to savour as 2nd placed Port Adelaide host 6th placed Fremantle. Port backed up their win against Geelong a fortnight ago with a routine victory over GWS last Saturday, while Fremantle regained some form with a gritty win over West Coast in a low-scoring derby last Sunday.

The fact that Fremantle played last Sunday is significant because it means they travel to Adelaide off a 6 day break and will face the hardest running side in the competition; the Dockers are going to face a serious fitness examination. To counter this they have recalled outside runner Stephen Hill from injury, but their defence has been severely weakened as injuries have forced out their two best shutdown key position defenders in Luke McPharlin and Zac Dawson. Port Adelaide’s Jay Schulz is the competition’s leading goal-scorer so far this season and he will be fancying his chances of extending his goal tally knowing that McPharlin and Dawson are out.

Fremantle typically ensure their matches are low-scoring and full of congestion. With a few showers forecast, I’m tipping this will play into their hands and the Dockers will be right in this game heading into the last quarter, but Port Adelaide’s superior fitness shapes as the decisive factor.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Port Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jay Schulz most goals @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jared Polec Most Possessions Gr2 @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)


Brisbane Lions v Essendon

4:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane

View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v Essendon

Essendon’s battling victory over the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night wasn’t pretty, but it was an important first step on their recovery to a spot in the top 8. The Bombers now sit at 3-4 and are a reasonable chance of fighting their way into the finals positions by the middle of the season, and maybe even by end of this weekend if a number of results go their way.

There isn’t a lot to be optimistic about on Brisbane’s 2014 horizon, with the Lions doomed for a finish near the foot of the ladder. Another listless display last Saturday night against Sydney left Justin Leppitsch’s side a game plus percentage adrift in the wooden spoon position.

At least the selection news has been positive for Brisbane with veteran forward Jonathan Brown back from injury, while fellow old-timer Matt Maguire returns in defence and explosive winger Pearce Hanley is recalled after another niggling injury.

As I noted last week, Brisbane’s second half fade-outs are a worrying trend that has crept in this year. This continued last week against the Swans, when the Lions losing the second half by 46 points, bringing their second half record for the year to 0-7 with an average losing margin of 36 points.

Bank on the Bombers to win big and for the Lions to lose contact in the second half.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Essendon at the line (-25.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Essendon at the second half line (-13.5) @ 1.90 (Bet365)


Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

7:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

The MCG will again turn pink as Melbourne and Western Bulldogs come together to support the fight against breast cancer in their annual ‘Field of Women’ game. For two of the league’s lesser supported clubs it is very much a marquee game to get them in the spotlight, while highlighting a very worthy cause.

Melbourne will take the field full of confidence after grinding out an interstate win against Adelaide. That result was the Demons first interstate success against a non-expansion club since they beat Brisbane at the Gabba in 2010, and the win will have increased the belief the team has in new coach Paul Roos and his defensive game style. Going into the match last week, Adelaide had the third best attacking record this year, but the frugal Demons were able to restrict the Crows to their lowest score of the season despite the perfect conditions.

The Bulldogs may sit above Melbourne on the ladder by percentage, but the Doggies aren’t exuding as much of a positive vibe in the lead-up to this clash. Brendan McCartney’s team has narrowly missed out on victories for both of the past two weeks and desperately need to win this game otherwise their season is in big danger of sliding towards irrelevance.

Despite all the media love that came in for Melbourne last week, the Demons still had seven less scoring shots than their opponents and were very fortunate to escape with the win. Despite Jack Viney being given the all clear from the tribunal to play in this game for the Dees, the Bulldogs are snarling after two close defeats and I expect them to bite back hard on Saturday night.

Finally, Will Minson dominated the ruck for the Bulldogs in both games against the Demons last year. He could easily put in a big game this Saturday night and pick up a massive Super Coach score.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Western Bulldogs to win by 39 points or less @ 2.02 (Palmerbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Stewart Crameri most goals @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Will Minson to score the most Super Coach points in Group 2 @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)


Sunday 11 May

West Coast v Greater Western Sydney

4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for West Coast v GWS

This is match that it is particularly hard to get enthused about, even though it’s the sole game of the day. Only two teams have remained winless in the past four rounds, and those clubs are West Coast and Greater Western Sydney, who are the two teams squaring off in Perth this Sunday afternoon.

At least the Eagles have been competitive in their games, getting within 20 points in each of the past three weeks, while the Giants have been beaten by more than 25 points in each of their four successive defeats. Those losses by GWS have coincided with the absence of ruckman Shane Mumford to injury, and with Mumford still sidelined for this match, West Coast will have a big advantage in the middle of the ground through the tap work of Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui.

West Coast will also be boosted by the return of dangerous small forward Mark LeCras, while GWS have been hit by injuries to a trio of key players with prolific midfielder Adam Treloar, gun forward Jeremey Cameron and rebounding defender Curtly Hampton all ruled out of this match.

I am going to play this relatively conservatively and bank on a reasonably big West Coast win.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on West Coast to win by 40 points or more @ 1.48 (Palmerbet)


Monday 12 May

St Kilda v Carlton

7:20 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Carlton

Carlton’s mini-resurgence came to an abrupt halt last Friday night when they were spanked by bitter rival Collingwood. But at least the Blues saved face with an 8 goal final quarter, and they will look to carry that momentum into this game with a match-up against a St Kilda team low on confidence. The Saints were shellacked by 145 points against Hawthorn last week, which followed a loss to a previously winless Brisbane side.

For teams closer to wrong end of the ladder than the right end, both boast good records at Etihad Stadium this year, with Carlton at 2-1 and St Kilda at 3-1. With Carlton spearhead Jarrad Waite still out injured, St Kilda centre-half forward Nick Riewoldt is the key man for this game. Riewoldt had booted a third of his team’s goals for the season prior to the two most recent fixtures, and during the past fortnight he has booted just one goal and, accordingly, the Saints have struggled to hit the scoreboard. As was the case for Brisbane and Hawthorn recently, if Carlton can contain Riewoldt they are halfway to victory. Michael Jamison will probably get first crack at Riewoldt, although swingmen Lachie Henderson and Sam Rowe might also be required at some stage.

This is the fourth year in a row that these teams have played on the Monday after Mother’s Day. The previous three games have been crackers that were decided by 15 points or less. With Waite’s absence hurting Carlton’s scoring power and the Saints low on confidence, this could be another close contest.

After coming back from injury a couple of weeks ago, St Kilda’s pint-sized midfielder Jack Steven has hit form in the past fortnight, picking up 31 possessions against Brisbane and 29 last week against Hawthorn. He is primed for to go 100+ Super Coach points this week. That should go close to taking out the second tier group.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on either team to win by 24 points or less @ 1.94 (Centrebet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jack Steven to score the most Super Coach points in Group 2 @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Jack Steven to have over 27.5 disposals @ 1.97 (Sportsbet)


Betting Summary

Round Units Wagered Net Round Result (Units) % Profit Cumulative Net Result Cumulative % Profit
1 18.5 13.24 71.6% 13.24 71.6%
2 16.5 1.17 7.1% 14.41 41.2%
3 15.75 -4.625 -29.4% 9.785 19.3%
4 19 4.26 22.4% 14.045 20.1%
5 17.5 -6.295 -36.0% 7.75 8.9%
6 18.5 -3.63 -19.6% 4.12 3.9%
7 20.75 -0.595 -2.9% 3.525 2.8%


Bet Type Bets Net Result % Profit
H2H 12 4.91 32%
2-leg Multi 6 4.25 71%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line 2 3.045 87%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H 2 2.8 80%
Team Goals (line) 1 2.55 85%
Supercoach group 1 2 200%
Supercoach player H2H 3 1.95 28%
Goals Pick Your Own Line 3 1.75 78%
Second Half Line 3 1.7 43%
Win by 40 points or more 1 1.34 134%
Either Team 15 points or less 1 0.825 165%
25 points or more 1 0.82 82%
16 points or more 1 0.68 68%
Most Disposals in Group B 6 0.5 12%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group 1 -0.5 -100%
Half Time/Full Time 1 -0.5 -100%
Medal Winner 1 -0.5 -100%
Time First Goal 1 -0.5 -100%
Most Disposals in Group A 4 -0.7 -16%
Line 20 -0.775 -3%
Win by 19 points or less 1 -1 -100%
Team Score (Line) 2 -1.12 -37%
Either Team 24 points or less 3 -1.15 -58%
3-leg multi 2 -2 -100%
Individual Player Disposals (Line) 1 -2 -100%
Win Q4 1 -2 -100%
Total Match Score (line) 8 -3.125 -30%
Win by 39 points or less 14 -4.725 -36%
Most Goals 9 -5 -69%
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