AFL Round 9 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 141.25 units
Units Won = 151.94 units
Profit/Loss = +10.69 units (7.6% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.


Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Luke Parker to score a goal anytime in the Essendon v Sydney game @ 1.48

Total match score over 166.5 points in the Richmond v Melbourne game @ 1.88

Total match score under 185.5 points in the St Kilda v Gold Coast game @ 1.88

1 unit @ combined odds of 5.23 (Sportsbet)


Friday 16 May

Essendon v Sydney

7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Sydney

Sydney notched a conclusive victory on a sodden SCG when these teams met for the only time last year. The 44 point margin was not in keeping with the previous recent history of close results between these sides, with all four matches played between 2010 and 2012 decided by 9 points or less. With the Swannies on a four-match winning run, including victories over both of last year’s Grand Finalists, the pressure will be on Essendon to lift their game to ensure this remains a tight contest for the whole night.

After an impressive start to the season Essendon’s momentum has stalled due to their shortcomings in attack. To demonstrate this point, since their big victory over Carlton in Round 3, the Bombers have not kicked more than 10 goals in any of their past 5 matches. The off-season trade of Stewart Crameri to the Bulldogs might help Essendon’s young key position players develop for the long-term, but Crameri’s absence is hurting them in the short-term because players like Joe Daniher and Jake Carlisle are not pulling down marks in the forward 50 arc.

The one advantage Essendon will has over Sydney is in the ruck, with Tom Bellchambers returning from injury to play his first game for the year and partner Paddy Ryder. Sydney’s inexperienced ruckman Tom Derickx should run out of steam in the last quarter after Bellchambers and Ryder rotate against him all night.

Sydney’s forward line looked ultra dangerous against Hawthorn last week. Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett seemed to be marking everything that came their way and will pose plenty of problems under the closed roof at Etihad. With Essendon’s prized recruit, Paul Chapman, suspended for this match, the Dons don’t look like having the firepower to trouble the Swans.

Andy’s Bet: 1 units on Sydney at the line (-17.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Michael Hibberd to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than David Zaharakis @ 1.75 (Sportsbet)


Saturday 17 May

Richmond v Melbourne

1:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Melbourne

I am looking forward to this game and plan to enjoy whatever way Richmond decide to celebrate the contribution made to the club by legend and four time Premiership coach Tom Hafey, who sadly passed away on Monday aged 82. The tributes that poured in for Hafey fondly reflected on his ability to teach his players as much about life as football. I expect a big crowd of Richmond supporters will flock to the MCG on a sunny Saturday afternoon to celebrate Hafey’s life in football.

Richmond are languishing near the wrong end of the ladder with a 2-5 win loss record, which means they are lurking in the depths with Melbourne (2-6). The Tigers still harbour ambitions of a top 8 position at the end of the year so they need to get cracking and chalk up some wins on the board. A win this week, and again next week against GWS, would leave the yellow and blacks within striking distance of the top 8 as the season nears its halfway point.

Both teams have lost some experience leading into this game with Richmond veteran Chris Newman ruled out with a calf injury, while older Melbourne players James Frawley and Shannon Byrnes also miss through injuries.

Elite Richmond midfield duo Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio should tear this game apart and key forward Jack Riewoldt should be the beneficiary with plenty of ball supply that will enable him to kick a few goals. I expect the Tigers to boost their percentage with a big win.

I have added some other more exotic bets, including Brett Deledio to score a goal at anytime during the game. Deledio has kicked a goal in all three games he has played so far this year, so appears to be good value at $1.87.

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Richmond at the line (-30.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jack Riewoldt most goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Daniel Jackson to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Daniel Cross @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Brett Deledio to score a goal anytime @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)


North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Brisbane

North Melbourne enjoyed the week off last round, while Brisbane slugged it out for four quarters against Essendon at the Gabba. The Lions put in a brave effort as the underdogs last Saturday, pushing the Bombers right to line before coming up 8 points short at the end of the tense struggle.

Brad Scott’s Kangaroos have been the competition’s Jekyll and Hyde team this season, twice following up splendid interstate victories with sluggish losses the next week in Melbourne. But the 10th placed Roos have had a tough set of fixtures to start the year, playing 6 of their 7 games against teams placed 9th or higher, and this will be the first time they have played a team from the bottom 6.

Despite their better showing last week, Brisbane still sit a game and percentage adrift at the bottom of the ladder and look doomed for a bottom four finish, with the wooden spoon a distinct possibility.

There is some exciting news at selection, with North Melbourne’s nice-guy skipper Andrew Swallow picked to play his first game since rupturing his Achilles in July last year. With Swallow’s inclusion, North will field their strongest team for the season and should blow away an inexperienced Brisbane outfit that appears to be low on confidence.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne at the line (-46.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)


Fremantle v Geelong

7:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Geelong

This clash between Fremantle and Geelong is the final installment of Saturday’s triple header and it promises to be the match of the round. The Dockers were my flag fancy during the pre-season but Ross Lyon’s team has endured a choppy start to the campaign and must win this match to keep pace with the top 8, while a place in the top 4 is a world away. Geelong have been typically brilliant so far this season and a win in this game would boost Chris Scott’s team up above Hawthorn into second spot on the ladder.

These teams have developed a big rivalry during the past two years, which began in the first game of 2012 when Geelong defender Matthew Scarlett lashed out and punched Fremantle forward Hayden Ballantyne. The Dockers got under the skin of the Cats that night and pinched a victory. See all the highlights in the video at this link.

Ryan Crowley is another player who has annoyed the Geelong, particular their skipper and influential midfielder Joel Selwood who has been well held by Crowley in recent matches. The Dockers have had generally had the better of Geelong in the past two years, crucially winning both finals games they have played.

Fremantle have been strengthened by the return of key defender Zac Dawson, while Geelong welcome back reliable mid-sized defender Andrew Mackie but lose in-form midfielder Matthew Stokes to suspension.

I am going to tip Geelong to win a close game because I think the Cats are travelling better at the moment.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Geelong to win by 24 points or less @ 3.50 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Michael Barlow over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)


Sunday 18 May

St Kilda v Gold Coast

4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Gold Coast

For the second successive Sunday footy fans will have to wait until the twilight timeslot to see any AFL action. Unfortunately this match is unlikely to reach any great heights for those who will wait patiently for it. Gold Coast have won their past three games to sit comfortably in the top 8, while St Kilda have list their past three to start slipping down towards the bottom of the ladder after a promising first five weeks.

Both these teams have a standout player; Gary Ablett consistently dominates in the midfield for the Suns, while Saints star Nick Riewoldt is one of the game’s best marking forwards. The problem for St Kilda is that they are more reliant on Riewoldt than Gold Coast are on Ablett. For the Saints, Riewoldt has booted 30% of their goals this season and their second highest goal kicker is midfielder Leigh Montagna with only 7 goals. The Suns might not have a goalkicker like Riewoldt, but they have a better spread of forward options with four players who have kicked more than 10 goals this year.

The Suns should win this game and quietly take another step towards a first ever finals berth.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Gold Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)



Betting Summary

Round Units Wagered Net Round Result (Units) % Profit
1 18.5 13.24 71.6%
2 16.5 1.17 7.1%
3 15.75 -4.625 -29.4%
4 19 4.26 22.4%
5 17.5 -6.295 -36.0%
6 18.5 -3.63 -19.6%
7 20.75 -0.595 -2.9%
8 14.75 7.165 48.6%



Bet Type Bets Net Result % Profit
2-leg Multi 7 10.3 147%
H2H 12 4.91 32%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line 2 3.045 87%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H 2 2.8 80%
Team Goals (line) 1 2.55 85%
Win by 40 points or more 2 2.06 82%
Supercoach player H2H 3 1.95 28%
Goals Pick Your Own Line 3 1.75 78%
Either Team 15 points or less 1 0.825 165%
25 points or more 1 0.82 82%
16 points or more 1 0.68 68%
Supercoach group 3 0.5 20%
Most Disposals in Group B 7 0 0%
Second Half Line 4 -0.3 -5%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group 1 -0.5 -100%
Half Time/Full Time 1 -0.5 -100%
Medal Winner 1 -0.5 -100%
Most Goals 11 -0.5 -6%
Time First Goal 1 -0.5 -100%
Win by 39 points or less 17 -0.83 -5%
Win by 19 points or less 1 -1 -100%
Team Score (Line) 2 -1.12 -37%
Most Disposals in Group A 5 -1.2 -24%
Either Team 24 points or less 4 -1.65 -66%
Line 21 -1.775 -7%
3-leg multi 2 -2 -100%
Individual Player Disposals (Line) 1 -2 -100%
Player Disposals Line 1 -2 -100%
Win Q4 1 -2 -1
Total Match Score (line) 8 -3.125 -30%
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