AFL Round 10 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 155.25 units
Units Won = 162.11 units
Profit/Loss = +6.86 units (4.4% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.


Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Total match score over 167.5 points in the Geelong v North Melbourne game @ 1.88

Travis Cloke most goals in Collingwood v West Coast game @ 4.50

1 unit @ combined odds of 8.46 (Sportsbet)


Friday 23 May

Geelong v North Melbourne

7:50 PM AEST, Simonds Stadium, Geelong

View a detailed form guide for Geelong v North Melbourne

This Friday a landmark event will take place in Geelong, with their premier stadium hosting the premium Friday night football timeslot for the first time ever. The Cats will be pleased to return to home base after an unhappy trip to Fremantle last weekend resulted in a second interstate loss of the season, which saw Chris Scott’s men slip to 4th on the ladder. Chris’s twin brother Brad is the coach of the North Melbourne team that will be aiming to spoil Geelong’s Friday night party. The battle between the twins is always a good subplot to keep an eye on when these clubs play, but given North are only a win behind Geelong, the on-field action should provide enough entertaining viewing.

Geelong are still strong favourites for this match, but their price did ease after creative midfielder Steve Johnson was suspended during the week, although Johnson’s loss if partly offset by the return of diminutive ball winner Matthew Stokes who is free to play after serving a 1-week suspension of his own.

These teams have met three times during the past two years and the matches have gone right to the wire, with the winning margin remaining 17 points or less. I think the Cats are slightly better than the Kangaroos, and the home ground advantage is an extra boost. Geelong should be good enough to secure a narrow win and Chris can triumph over Brad in the battle of the coaching twins.

Tom Hawkins is the main goal scorer for Geelong and he is a great option for most goals in this match, while Andrew Swallow is a noted ball winner and even though he is playing his second game after a long injury layoff, Swallow is outrageously good odds for most disposals in the second tier group.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 39 points or less @ 2.25 (Sportingbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Tom Hawkins most goals @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Andrew Swallow most possessions Gr2 @ 5.50 (Sportsbet)


Saturday 24 May

Greater Western Sydney v Richmond

1:40 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney

View a detailed form guide for GWS v Richmond

Richmond are close to rock bottom ahead of this clash after a disappointing loss to Melbourne last Saturday left them third last on the ladder and a whopping three wins plus percentage outside the top 8. The Tigers season isn’t over but it’s a long way back from here. Richmond’s current plight puts them in the depths of the ladder with GWS, who have also only managed two wins for the season and enter this match on a 5-game losing run.

After initially appearing to have a better crop of young talent than fellow franchise club Gold Coast, GWS has fallen behind the improvement of their big brothers from the north. In year 3 the Suns managed 8 wins and did not suffer any 10 goal defeats, while the Giants have only won two games so far in their third year and have twice been beaten by more than 60 points.

A massive seven changes have been made to the GWS team from the side that lost to West Coast a fortnight ago, with plenty of big guns recalled, including leading goal kicker Jeremy Cameron, powerful ruckman Shane Mumford and gun midfielder Adam Treloar. Richmond have lost in-form key defender David Astbury to a knee injury, with Dylan Grimes called in to replace him.

Richmond should sneak the win, but there is no value in that, so I will hope that these two out of form teams will combine for a low-scoring game and take the ‘unders’ in the total match score line. I will also make a small play on Shaun Grigg for most disposals in his group. Given Grigg averages more disposals than anybody else in his group, $4.50 seems like generous odds.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Score under 187.5 points @ 1.92 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Shaun Grigg most possessions Gr2 @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)


Collingwood v West Coast

4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v West Coast

West Coast make a rare trip to the MCG this Saturday afternoon as they clash with Collingwood at the home of football, and although this will be the Eagles second MCG game of the year, they won’t play here again for the rest of the regular season. This match should be a ripper because the winner will finish the round in the top 8 and the loser probably won’t.

This is an especially big game for West Coast because the Eagles have not beaten a team higher than 12th placed Western Bulldogs so far this season, while Collingwood have already posted wins over top 8 teams Sydney and North Melbourne. Both teams have few excuses in terms of personnel, with only Beau Waters and Mark LeCras missing from West Coast’s best 22, while the Magpies are still without key position swingman Ben Reid.

The fact that Collingwood was only beaten by 21 points last week could be construed as a positive given their opposition had 47 more kicks, 22 more tackles and 10 more inside 50’s. Those sort of numbers generally indicate a 10 goal thrashing, so a 21 point loss shows the Magpies can still stay within striking distance even when they are not playing well.

Collingwood are a great MCG team and won 4 matches in a row here before last week’s defeat in Adelaide. This home ground familiarity tilts the scales in Collingwood’s favour, but I reckon this one will be very tight.

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Collingwood to win by 24 points or less @ 3.25 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Matthew Rosa most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)


Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

7:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

First hosts second in the match of the round this Saturday night from Adelaide Oval. A few weeks ago Port Adelaide knocked off Geelong in a top of the table clash at this ground, so Ken Hinkley’s team will be eager to claim another big scalp in front of their home fans. Given Hawthorn’s lengthy injury list, the Power will start this game as warm favourites even though the Hawks are still the clear Premiership favourites.

Port Adelaide’s second halves have been sensational at Adelaide Oval so far this year. In the four games the Power have played at their new home venue, they have outscored their opposition after the long break by at least 22 points each time. Because of this, I am going to put a few dollars on the Power to beat the second half line of 8.5 points.

Port Adelaide have been strengthened at selection by recalling number one ruckman Matthew Lobbe, while Hawthorn are boosted by the return of skipper Luke Hodge, but the Hawks have lost important trio Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli and Josh Gibson to injury or suspension. All those players are key men for the brown and golds, but Gibson’s loss is particularly damaging given he is the leader of the defensive unit and fellow tall defender Brian Lake is already sidelined through injury.

Hawthorn will still be competitive because they are a great football team and have plenty of depth, but Port Adelaide are fit and firing and should run out this game stronger than their opposition.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Port Adelaide at the second half line (-8.5 points) @ 1.90 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 unit on Brad Ebert most disposals in Group 1 @ 9.00 (Sportsbet)


Sunday 25 May

Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs

3:20 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast

View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs

Win this game and Gold Coast might finish the round in the top 4. Despite never taking part in September action before, the Suns are a genuine finals contender this year and it is frightening to think how dominant they might become over the next 5 years as their squad of young stars continue to develop. The Western Bulldogs travel north to take on Gold Coast for this Sunday afternoon game, and the Bulldogs will be looking for a victory that would lift them from their current ladder position of 12th place.

I am confident Gold Coast will win, but picking a margin of victory is really tough. The line is set at 27.5 points and, initially, that seems like great value to be cleared by the Suns as they are in great form at the moment, winning four in a row, including their last three by margins of 38 points or more. But, that can be countered by the Bulldogs, whose last 7 matches have been decided by 29 points or less.

In the end I have decided to go for Gold Coast at the line, because even though the Bulldogs have not suffered many big defeats recently, they haven’t played a top 8 team since North Melbourne in Round 2.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Gold Coast at the line (-27.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)


Carlton v Adelaide

4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Carlton v Adelaide

After copping a ruthless beating from the media after starting the season with four consecutive losses, Mick Malthouse’s Carlton team has shown a good deal of resolve to win 3 of their past 4 matches to inject some momentum into their 2014 campaign. Adelaide, meanwhile, will venture to the MCG full of confidence after a rousing victory over Collingwood last Thursday showcased just how good the Crows can be when they have most of their key players on the park.

Carlton are 0-4 at the MCG this season, which is a horrid record considering that includes matches against Richmond and Melbourne, as well as an 81 point loss against Essendon. The Blues start to the season is particularly disappointing when you consider they have had a reasonably good draw, with this being their 9th consecutive match played in Melbourne.

Adelaide are nearly back at full strength, while Carlton are still without Chris Judd and Matthew Kruezer, with Jarrad Waite no certainty to play despite being named on the extended bench.

The Crows are within touching distance of the top 8, but they have a really tough set of fixtures for the next two months, so this is a must win game. I think they should do it comfortably.

Andy’s Bet: 3 units on Adelaide to win @ 1.72 (Luxbet)



Betting Summary


Round Units Wagered Net Round Result (Units) % Profit
1 18.5 13.24 71.6%
2 16.5 1.17 7.1%
3 15.75 -4.625 -29.4%
4 19 4.26 22.4%
5 17.5 -6.295 -36.0%
6 18.5 -3.63 -19.6%
7 20.75 -0.595 -2.9%
8 14.75 7.165 48.6%
9 14 -3.835 -27.4%



Bet Type Bets Net Result % Profit
2-leg Multi 7 10.3 147%
H2H 12 4.91 32%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line 2 3.045 87%
Team Goals (line) 1 2.55 85%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H 4 2.35 36%
Win by 40 points or more 2 2.06 82%
Supercoach player H2H 3 1.95 28%
Goals Pick Your Own Line 3 1.75 78%
Wire to Wire (any other result) 1 0.825 110%
Either Team 15 points or less 1 0.825 165%
25 points or more 1 0.82 82%
16 points or more 1 0.68 68%
Supercoach group 3 0.5 20%
Win by 39 points or less 18 0.37 2%
Second Half Line 4 -0.3 -5%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group 1 -0.5 -100%
Half Time/Full Time 1 -0.5 -100%
Medal Winner 1 -0.5 -100%
Time First Goal 1 -0.5 -100%
Win by 24 points or less 1 -0.5 -100%
Most Disposals in Group B 8 -0.75 -14%
Anytime goalscorer 1 -1 -100%
Win by 19 points or less 1 -1 -100%
Team Score (Line) 2 -1.12 -37%
Most Disposals in Group A 5 -1.2 -24%
Most Goals 12 -1.5 -15%
Either Team 24 points or less 4 -1.65 -66%
Line 24 -1.935 -7%
Player Disposals Line 1 -2 -100%
Win Q4 1 -2 -100%
3-leg multi 3 -3 -100%
Individual Player Disposals (Line) 2 -3 -100%
Total Match Score (line) 8 -3.125 -30%



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