AFL Round 16 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 243.00 units
Units Won = 244.55 units
Profit/Loss = +1.55 units (0.6% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.


Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Josh Jenkins to kick 3 or more goals in the GWS v Adelaide game @ 3.00

Gold Coast to win @ 2.00

St Kilda at the line (+35.5) @ 1.92

1 unit @ combined odds of 11.52 (Sportsbet)


Friday 4 July

North Melbourne v Hawthorn

7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Hawthorn

North Melbourne’s shock defeat to Brisbane last Saturday night meant the Kangaroos remain in 7th spot ahead of this clash with table topping Hawthorn. The loss to the Lions also underlined the gap between North’s best and worst, which I will devote more time to in the next paragraph. Hawthorn are consistently brilliant and returned to the top of the ladder with a 53 point victory over a talented Gold Coast team down in a soggy Launceston last Saturday.

But getting back to North Melbourne’s bizarre formline. So far this season Brad Scott’s team are 3-0 against top 4 teams, but they have struggled to a 0-5 record against similarly ranked teams from 5th-10th on the ladder. Last week’s loss to Brisbane is most likely an aberration as the Roos are generally proficient at picking off the weaker teams, which is proven by their 5-1 record against sides from the bottom 8.

Scott must have been angry with the loss to Brisbane because he has dropped three players from the team ahead of this game, while big-bodied midfielder Jack Ziebell misses with a knee injury. For Hawthorn there is good selection news and bad selection news. The return of former skipper Sam Mitchell from a severe hamstring injury is good news, but the absence of x-factor half forward Cyril Rioli to a similar injury is bad news.

I expect a bold showing from North Melbourne, but Hawthorn should have a bit too much class and my money will be with them to win by 39 points or less.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.30 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Grant Birchall most dispsoals in Gr2  @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)


Saturday 5 July

Richmond v Brisbane Lions

1:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Brisbane

Richmond awoke from its mid-season slumber with an assured performance last Saturday, producing a comfortable 44 point victory against cellar dweller St Kilda. The win lifted the Tigers to 13th on the ladder and they head a large group of five teams on the same number of wins, which includes 17th placed Brisbane, their opponents this week.

Like Richmond, Brisbane will also take to the field in a confident mood after netting a win last week. Brisbane’s victory was quite surprising as they beat 7th placed North Melbourne by 4 points, which was their first win over a top 8 team all season. The narrow margin wasn’t surprising though, because all of the Lions four wins this campaign have been secured by 8 points or less. The boys from old Fitzroy certainly take their opportunity when a winning chance comes along, because the Lions have only played in five games decided by 24 points or less, winning four of those matches. Conversely, when they lose, they often get spanked, with 8 of their 10 defeats coming by more than 40 points.

A Richmond win is heavily favoured by the bookies, but there does appear to be value with the Tigers to follow the trend and win by 40 points or more against Brisbane. We covered the Lions propensity to lose by big margins earlier, and a big Brisbane loss is supported by the fact that on the rare occasion Richmond have won this season, they have done so by more than 40 points the last three times.

Jonathan Brown may have been absent on the field for the Lions last week, but I feel his presence before, during and after the game was still a contributing factor to their good result. This week, there will be no ‘Do it for Browny’ motivation and life without the champion centre-half forward will properly begin. It’s unlikely to be pretty for Brisbane.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Richmond to win by 40 points or more @ 2.05 (Centrebet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Pearce Hanley to have over 23.5 disposals @ 1.85 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Brandon Ellis most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)


Greater Western Sydney v Adelaide

2:10 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney

View a detailed form guide for GWS v Adelaide

The code to this game appears an easy one to break. Adelaide’s form over their last nine matches has been W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W and it shouldn’t take a genius to work out what comes next. For the most recent seven games of that sequence, the wins have been secured at their home base, while the losses have been suffered on interstate trips. If the 9th placed Crows are to break into the top 8 this season, then they must manage a few back to back wins at some stage. This is a great opportunity for Adelaide to get on a winning run and consolidate a superb win that was earned last Sunday against their high-flying cross-town rivals Port Adelaide.

GWS were solid against Sydney last Saturday night, bouncing back from an awful first half to match their in-form rivals during the second half despite being a runner down early in the game after losing industrious rebounding defender Heath Shaw to a serious concussion injury. Shaw is obviously still suffering the effects of the big knock and has been left out of the Giants team for this week, but his absence is offset by the return of hard running midfielders Tom Scully and Toby Greene.

Adelaide have been boosted by the return of midfielder David Mackay and key position defender Ben Rutten, while rebounding defender Ricky Henderson is free from injury and will play his first game of the season.

The Crows were fantastic in the Showdown last week and will ride that momentum into this match and I am banking on them to snap both my horrible run of form with line bets and their own win-loss sequence!

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide at the line (-24.5) @ 1.92 (Multiple Sites)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Dylan Shiel most dispsoals in Gr2  @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)


Gold Coast v Collingwood

4:40 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast

View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Collingwood

In the corresponding fixture played at this venue in July last year, Gold Coast stunned Collingwood by 7 points to claim, at least at that stage, their biggest scalp. That match was also a Saturday twilight clash, as this will be, and Suns skipper Gary Ablett played one of his best ever games. The bald ball magnet’s star seeming to shine brighter and brighter as the sun faded and the lights took effect while the match reached an exciting conclusion. By the time the final siren sounded Ablett had amassed a season high 49 disposals to go with two vital goals. In the lead-up to this match, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley has admitted he erred by not choosing to tag Ablett and it is expected that in-form Magpies shutdown player Brent Macaffer will be handed the near-impossible task of quashing Ablett’s influence this time around.

Gold Coast should have too much leg speed around the ground. Even though Collingwood have four gun midfielders in Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom and Dane Swan, they are all relatively one paced and could be exposed by some of the Suns outside runners. Gold Coast coach Guy McKenna has obviously identified pace as a way to overcome the Magpies, with the Suns promoting dashing duo Aaron Hall and Sean Lemmons to their team for this week.

Collingwood have lost their best small forward after Jamie Elliot limped out of last week’s match with a hamstring injury, while clearance specialist Luke Ball has picked up a calf injury and will also miss this game. Key forward and part time ruckman Jesse White has been omitted due to poor form, and without this trio the balance of the Magpies team looks a bit out of whack. Look for the quick Suns to capitalise.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Gold Coast to win by over 15.5 points @ 3.10 (Centrebet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Dion Prestia to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Dayne Beams @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jaeger O’Meara most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 3.25 (Sportsbet)


Port Adelaide v Essendon

7:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Essendon

Two losses in the past three weeks has seen Port Adelaide fall to second on the ladder, ending a seven week stint at the top of the tree. Last weekend’s defeat was particularly painful for the Power because it came against bitter rival Adelaide. Essendon, meanwhile, paid the price for a tardy first half last Friday night and a third quarter surge was not enough to pinch victory over Geelong as the Bombers went downg down by 9 points.

Close contests have been a strong recent theme for Essendon matches, with 6 of their past 8 games decided by 15 points or less. This suggests Port Adelaide should prepare for a 120 minute grind this Saturday night. Defence is very important in tight games but both teams have had to leave out two important defenders, with the Power losing their best two tall defenders in Jackson Trengove and Alipate Carlile, while the Bombers will have to journey without super veteran Dustin Fletcher and rebounding defender Michael Hibberd.

Port Adelaide’s loss at Adelaide Oval last week was to their city rivals. This means they still haven’t been beaten at this venue by a travelling interstate team, so I am confident they can do the job this week. For betting purposes, I am playing two margin markets, which is essentially giving me odds of $2.10-$2.45 that Port Adelaide will win by 20-59 points. I am more confident of that margin than the $2.20 that has been quoted for 1-39 points.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Port Adelaide to win by 20-39 points @ 4.20 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Port Adelaide to win by 40-59 points @ 4.90 (Sportsbet)


Melbourne v Fremantle

7:40 PM AEST, TIO Stadium, Darwin

View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Fremantle

To help cover costs, this is the second home game of the season that Melbourne have forfeited for financial gain as part of their partnership with Tourism NT to play two of their home matches in the Northern Territory. The first match, played a month ago in Alice Springs was reasonably successful with the Demons playing well in front on the magnificent local landscape and only narrowly losing to then ladder leaders Port Adelaide. This match, played against Fremantle in Darwin, will be another difficult northern excursion for Melbourne because the Dockers enter the clash on a 6 game winning streak.

Matches in Darwin have traditionally been low scoring due to the moist night-time air and dewy surface making it difficult to handle the football cleanly. The last five night matches played in Darwin have not resulted in a total match score of greater than 170 points, so given the Dockers are difficult enough to score against when the conditions are good, I was expecting there to be value playing the ‘unders’ in the Total Match Score Line market. However, the line was set at 147.5 to 150.5 points, so I am going to give that market a miss and focus instead on Melbourne’s total score markets. Surely the Demons, statistically the worst attacking team, will struggle to kick goals against a Fremantle team that is statistically the best defensive team.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Melbourne’s total score to be under 57.5 points @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on David Mundy most dispsoals in Gr1  @ 5.50 (Sportsbet)


Sunday 6 July

Carlton v St Kilda

1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Carlton v St Kilda

Given each team plays 22 regular season matches and it is an 18 team competition, clubs only play 5 other teams twice each during each campaign. Carlton is traditional rivals with Collingwood and Essendon, which only leaves three other teams they can play twice against each year. Therefore it is surprising that this is the fourth straight year that Carlton and St Kilda have been scheduled to play each other twice. Perhaps the regular meetings between these non-traditional rivals are actually building a bit of fierce competitiveness between them. In the seven matches played between the Blues and Saints since the start of 2011, there have been match review penalties handed down for five of those seven games, with offences ranging from striking to wrestling and engaging in a melee. Make no mistake, these teams don’t like each other and this match could get fiery again.

But perhaps the players will control their tempers this time, with aggressive Carlton forward flanker Mitch Robinson sitting this one out as he is already suspended after striking Collingwood’s Taylor Adams last week.

Matches between these teams have also been tightly contested on the scoreboard, with the Blues taking out 4 of the past 7 clashes since the start of 2011, and all of those games have been decided by 39 points or less. If you combine that with the fact that Carlton’s last 11 games this year have been decided by 39 points or less, then the 39 point margin market looks like the option to play.

So who’s going to win then? Carlton are still without talented forward line players Jarrad Waite and Jeff Garlett, but the Saints have lost their past 9 games and are rooted to the foot of the ladder so it’s going to have to be the Blues.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Carlton to win by 39 points or less @ 2.35 (Centrebet)


West Coast v Sydney

3:20 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for West Coast v Sydney

Sydney boast a couple of mightily impressive winning streaks as they enter this match against West Coast. Firstly, the Swans have won their past 10 matches in a row to climb to a season high 3rd place on the ladder and equal on points with table topping Hawthorn. Sydney’s second winning streak is their head to head record against West Coast, with the Swans winning their past 7 games against the Eagles dating back to 2007 and, impressively, Sydney have won 4 of those 7 matches at this venue in Perth.

In addition to their poor recent record against Sydney, West Coast will have to overturn a disastrous 2014 formline against the better teams. Last Saturday’s loss to Fremantle left the Eagles sitting 1-7 against top 8 teams so far this year.

West Coast have lost four times to top 8 teams on home turf so far this season, but the margin has never been more than 39 points, so all signs point to a Sydney win, and one by 39 points or less.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 39 points or less @ 2.05 (Multiple Sites)


Geelong v Western Bulldogs

4:40 PM AEST, Simonds Stadium, Geelong

View a detailed form guide for Geelong v Western Bulldogs

The round concludes with this lopsided match-up between 5th placed Geelong and 12th placed Western Bulldogs at Simonds Stadium. Similarly to the West Coast v Sydney game earlier in the afternoon, one team enjoys a stranglehold over the other in the recent head to head contests. In this battle, the Cats have the advantage by winning 10 of their past 11 meetings with the Bulldogs.

The venue for this match adds weight to Geelong’s favouritism, with the Cats winning 47 of their 49 matches played on home soil since the start of the 2008 season. They often win big at Simonds Stadium too, taking out the majority of their games down here by 40 points or more.

The Cats get ruckman Hamish McIntosh back from an ankle injury, while the Bulldogs are boosted by the return of captain and gun midfielder Ryan Griffen, and promising young full back Jordan Roughead.

The bet for this game is boring and ultra conservative, so I have to apologise for not being more adventurous. Nonetheless, I am going to load up on the Cats to win by 16 points or more and hopefully put a tiny bit of cash into the season kitty.

Andy’s Bet: 3 units on Geelong to win by to win by 16 points or more @ 1.27 (Sportsbet)



Betting Summary

Round by Round Summary


Units Wagered

Net Round Result (Units)

% Profit






























































Bet Type Summary

Bet Type


Net Result

% Profit

Goals Pick Your Own Line




2-leg Multi




AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line




Win by 25 points or more




Team Goals (line)




Win by 39 points or less




Supercoach player H2H




Win by 40 points or more




Either team by 15 points or less




Win by 24 points or less




AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H




Wire to Wire (any other result)




Supercoach group




Win by 60 points or more




AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group








Supercoach Individual Line




Team Score (Line)




Half Time/Full Time




Medal Winner




Time First Goal




Second Half Line




Win by 16 points or more




Anytime goalscorer




Most Goals




Win by 19 points or less




Either team by 24 points or less




Individual Player Disposals (Line)




Player Disposals Line




Win Q4




Most Disposals in Group B




Total Match Score (line)




Most Disposals in Group A




3-leg multi









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