The following are previews with betting tips for Round 5 of the 2015 AFL season.
Friday, May 1
Carlton vs Collingwood
7:50PM AEST, MCG
Carlton enter Mick Malthouse’s record breaking 715th game coming off a win against the Saints, which fortunately released, or at least temporarily halted, the mounting pressure on the club’s performances in time to celebrate and reflect on this massive individual milestone.
It will be a big night for everyone involved, with Carlton and it’s supporters desperately hoping to give Mick what he would want most, a much needed win, and the Pies, while not wanting to let his current side get the four points, happy to pay tribute to a man who has done so much for their footy club in the past.
I’m expecting a tentative start to this contest, as I think there might be some nerves shown early from both sides. Yes, they’re both used to playing in big games in front of big crowds, but this is a unique situation and the intense focus during the build-up to the game might mean the two sides take a little while to settle.
I’d expect Collingwood to win this game on talent and current form, but could the Blues do something special for their coach? They’ll be fired up and ready to put in a four quarter effort, but are they good enough? Unfortunately, I don’t think they are.
Betting tip: 1.5 unit – Pies to win @ $1.59 (Pinnacle)
Saturday, May 2
Richmond vs Geelong
1:45PM AEST, MCG
On paper, this weekend doesn’t seem like it will be a great round of footy. There’s a lot of average games, and only a few that look to be exciting and worth our attention. However, many of these games will tell us a lot about where certain teams are at, and this is one of the biggest for me. After the first 4 rounds, the Cats are sliding, that we know. The Tigers, well, they’re 2-2 having played none of last year’s top 8. I can’t see either side having a huge impact on the outcome of season 2015, but it’s still early and we’ll have to wait and see if there’s any significant improvement to be made by either club. Who knows, the Tigers might not be content staying in their comfort zone of 9th spot.
Tough game to pick, but I’m backing the Cats in a close contest.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Cats to win @ $1.82 (LuxBet)
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
2:10PM AEST, SCG
The Western Bulldogs are playing some mighty exciting football at the moment. They shut down the space of their opposition with intense pressure, and when they get the ball they run forward in waves and take risky options in a ‘high risk, high reward’ game style, similar to how Port Adelaide play. They were brilliant against the previously unbeaten Crows; most people expected the Crows to win by 10 goals, not the Dogs.
This week will be an enormous challenge for them, travelling up to Sydney to play the Swans, who are fresh off their first loss of the season. It looks like it will be a wet day in Sydney, which might play into the hands of the bigger bodied and more experienced Swans. Sydney to get up in a low scoring affair.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 155.50 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
Gold Coast vs Brisbane
4:35PM AEST, Metricon Stadium
This year’s QClash is significant for another reason: it’s also the clash of the only two teams left without a win after 4 rounds. Hardly a strong advertisement for AFL football in Queensland. Injuries have hit both teams hard, with the latest news from the Gold Coast being that David Swallow and Nick Malceski will be having extended stints on the sidelines.
This is a tough one to pick a winner. The Suns showed something against the Cats in Geelong in round 3, but other than that, both sides have been poor all season. I’d give the nod to Gold Coast solely because it’s at Metricon, but I’m not confident at all so I’m going to steer clear of betting on this one.
Betting tip: Good luck!
North Melbourne vs Hawthorn
7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
This one, along with the Showdown in Adelaide, will probably be one of the best games of the round. The Hawks have lost Brian Lake and Paul Puopolo which will obviously help the Kangaroos. Considering James Frawley is out already, the loss of Lake means Drew Petrie and Ben Brown should be looking forward to big games. The only thing not going in the Kangaroos’ favour is that the Hawks are coming off a loss. Not only that, they’ve lost 2 of their last 3, and won’t be happy at all with their start to the season.
The Hawks are just too good a footy side to lose another game here. Although I think it will be a toughly fought game and a relatively close finish, I expect the Hawks to bounce back with a win.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Hawks by 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)
West Coast vs GWS Giants
7:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium
GWS have exceeded expectations so far in their 2015 campaign. They’re sitting 2nd on the ladder and should up to their eyeballs in this one, with a win giving them a 4-1 record. That would mean the following week’s clash against the Hawks would be watched on with considerable interest. A game that, prior to the season, most folk wouldn’t have placed much interest in at all.
The Eagles’ form line is harder to read. They’ve had 10 goal wins over Carlton and Brisbane, and have lost to the Dogs and Freo. I suspect that more of the same is probably what’s in store for them in 2015. They’ll convincingly beat the bottom 4 sides, and struggle with most of the rest. GWS are no longer a bottom 4 side, and I’m confident that they’ll be able to take care of the Eagles, even over in Perth.
Betting tip: 1.5 unit – Giants to win @ $2.52 (BetFair)
Sunday, May 3
Melbourne vs Fremantle
1:10PM AEST, MCG
The Demons made the most of their rare Friday night appearance with a fantastic win against the ‘insipid’ Tigers. They now have the chance to back it up in front of their fans at the MCG, against the only unbeaten team in the competition, the Dockers.
Fremantle are flying at the moment, and you’d expect them to win this one comfortably. The onus will be on Melbourne to stay in the contest and give the Dockers a real four-quarter challenge. Demon fans should be flocking to the ‘G to get another glimpse of star-in-the-making Jesse Hogan, after an impressive performance against the Tigers. They probably won’t see their side have a win, but they’ll definitely see some things that will have them excited for what the future holds.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Dockers at the line of -30.5 @ $1.92 (LuxBet)
St Kilda vs Essendon
3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
The Bombers will be bitterly disappointed from their ANZAC day loss to the Pies. It was a really poor performance from a team that had been in good form prior to that. We’ll put that one down as a one-off for now and wait and see how they go this week. It’s unlikely to be too much of an indication however, as they’re playing the wooden spoon favourites, St Kilda.
The Saints are counting down the days until skipper Nick Riewoldt, and one of their few experienced midfielders in Leigh Montagna, are cleared to return from injury. It doesn’t look like being this week, which means they’re likely to struggle again. They’re inexperienced enough as it is, they really can’t afford to be without those two and expect to win games of footy.
I’m tipping the Bombers to win easily in a high scoring game under the roof at Etihad.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Over 183.50 @ $.191 (Bet365)
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
4:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval
If the Crows had’ve beaten the Dogs last weekend and gone into this week unbeaten it would have been the perfect set up for an epic Showdown. Nonetheless, they should be fired up to beat up on their crosstown rivals after being given a wake up call by the Dogs. Phil Walsh seemed fairly happy that his team had been given a wake up call in his post-match press conference. In fact, he seemed stoked about it. Maybe he knows something we don’t know? Or maybe he just really wants to win his first Showdown and thought losing last week gives the Crows more motivation and a better chance this week? We’ll find out soon enough.
In other news, the Power took care of a fast-finishing Hawthorn to well and truly get their top 4 aspirations back on track. They looked every bit like the premiership side that many experts tipped them to be prior to the season. Another tough challenge for them this week though. Showdown games are always tough, and the Crows, barring last week, are in tip-top shape.
I expect Port will get up; after a slower start to the season than they would have liked, they look like they’re starting to get back to their best.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Power to win @ $1.65 (Pinnacle)
1 unit – Showdown Medal Winner – Brad Ebert @ $10.00 (Centrebet)
Units Wagered: 10
Units Won: 12.36