AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 11 in the 2015 season.

Friday, June 12

Port Adelaide vs Geelong 7:50PM AEST, Adelaide Oval

 

The first bye round kicks off with a massive game at the Adelaide Oval between two sides sitting on an even 5-5 win/loss record. The Power have looked better the past two weeks, but still don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders. Can they tame the Cats after dealing with the Dogs last week? 

Geelong were impressive last Saturday night, but the opposition were so poor that it would be unwise to read too much into the result. I’m expecting the Cats to give a really good account of themselves but probably be overrun in the second half, in similar fashion to their game against the Swans in Round 7. They’re probably just a bit shy on depth and midfield talent to stick with the top sides for four quarters.

This game is huge for Port; they must win the remainder of their games at home this year if they want to grab a spot in the top four. No questions about it. I like their chances of ticking this one off the list and continuing their slow creep up the ladder.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Power at the line of -17.5 @ $2.05 (LuxBet)

Saturday, June 13

Gold Coast vs Fremantle 1:40PM AEST, Metricon Stadium

 

Let’s be thankful that this match is being played on the Gold Coast and not in Perth; for neutral supporter’s sake as well as for the Gold Coast Suns’ players and fans. The Dockers will be filthy that they were beaten on their home patch by the Tigers on Friday night. They hadn’t really looked like dropping a game this season; to be beaten so convincingly was a shock to all of us, as well as to the Dockers themselves, and may act as a kind of reinvigorating shot-in-the-arm, not that they needed it prior to last week.

The Suns are still pushing through their various problems and while it seems they may be seeing some light at the end of tunnel, at this stage it is only the faintest of glimmers. A reflection coming from the bald head of Gary Ablett perhaps. Anyhow, they’re still quite a way off challenging teams outside of the bottom 4 or 5. Freo will win and win comfortably. There’s no value in the H2H odds so I’m going for a low scoring game in potential wet and windy conditions.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 160.50 @ $1.90 (UniBet)

West Coast vs Essendon 4:35PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

Essendon have been extremely disappointing on the field since the WADA appeal was announced. You can’t really blame them, with the potential for 24 month bans hanging over their collective heads. It has severely impacted their ability to play cohesive footy, sapping their confidence and making them appear lethargic and uninterested.

The Eagles, on the other hand, lost no fans with a strong effort against the Kangaroos in a game that very much resembled local club footy, thanks to the tough Tasmanian conditions and swirling wind. They’re playing exceptional football and haven’t looked like dropping off in most of the games we’ve seen so far this year. Playing at home in Perth, it’s hard to see the Bombers getting close to this gritty, hard-working Eagles side. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Eagles by 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)

North Melbourne vs Sydney 7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

The first three matches in this round all have the potential to be large blow-outs. The remaining three all have the potential to go right down to the wire. The first one, North Melbourne v Sydney, should be an interesting battle regardless of the result. 

The Kangaroos are fresh off an important win and will be playing the game on their own terms at Etihad Stadium, but the Swans are a tough opposition at any venue. The Kangaroos’ struggling midfield will be well and truly tested by one of the best midfield units in the league, and if they can at least match their Sydney counterparts in this area of the ground it will go a long way towards them winning the contest. Unfortunately for North, I think that the Swans are just too good in all areas and the Kangaroos would have to play out of their skins to topple them. It’s possible, but highly unlikely in my eyes.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Swans at the line of -15.5 @ $1.94 (Sportsbet)

Sunday, June 14

Collingwood vs GWS Giants 1:10PM AEST, MCG

 

This is another huge game, one that, again, could be classified as ‘season defining’ for both clubs. They sit 7-3, and are eyeing off not only a finals position, but a top four spot, something that would have seemed a slightly outlandish aim for either of these clubs prior to the season. 

As well as their best season to date, GWS fans should be rejoicing for another reason. The mid-week signing of Dylan Shiel means that the Giants have slowly and surely contracted the majority of their young stars. The big threat on their short- and long-term future was always a possible mass exodus when players such as Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Stephen Coniglio, etc., came out of contract and were shown big money contracts by rival clubs. Fortunately for the Giants, all have signed barring Treloar and Coniglio, and while it would hurt to lose those two, the Giants can take comfort in the fact that Cameron and Shiel have turned their back on bigger offers and are dedicated to building a successful club.

I’m tipping the Giants to beat the Pies this week. Collingwood haven’t beaten a top 8 side yet, and though that is mainly because of their draw and not through a fault of their own, I’m yet to be convinced that they’re a really good team. Being at the MCG helps the Pies, but I think the Giants are a really talented and dedicated bunch and I think they’ll get the four points in a great game.

Betting tip: 2 units – Giants to win @ $2.40 (Pinnacle)

 

St Kilda vs Melbourne 4:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

This looks like it might be a tough game for tipsters. Two bottom sides, who have shown that their best is very good, and their worst is very bad. And we never really know which we’re going to get from them. Both sides should be up for the contest as they’ll both know it’s a very winnable game. I’m going with St. Kilda, mainly because the Demons rarely play at Etihad and I think the experienced Saints will do enough to get their club over the line.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Saints to win @ $1.83 (10Bet)

Season Tally

Units Wagered: 70

Units Won: 67.16