AFL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 13 of the 2015 season.

Thursday, June 25

Fremantle vs Collingwood 8:10PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

Collingwood are sitting nicely at 8-3 and yet many still have their doubts over whether they a genuinely strong finals team, and rightly so. The Pies have played only 3 teams currently making up the top 8, being GWS, Adelaide, and Richmond; incidentally ranked 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively. They beat the Giants, but lost to both the Crows and Tigers. 

Of course, regardless of who they’ve played so far, they’ve done very well to get to where they are, but the next two weeks will tell us a lot about this team. They’ve got the Dockers in Perth, followed by the Hawks at the ‘G. Game on.

The Dockers will prove difficult for the Pies to match-up on in the middle of the ground and up forward. The area of the ground where Collingwood might have the advantage is their forward line, with Travis Cloke in good form and Freo missing a few key backs. Will they get enough quality supply to make the most of it? It’s hard to see Collingwood’s mostly blue collar midfield getting on top of Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow and co, especially when Jarrod Witts will have to shoulder the bulk of the ruck load against Aaron Sandilands. I reckon the Pies will give it all they’ve got but the Dockers’ class will get them over the line fairly comfortably. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dockers at the line of -23.5 @ $2.10 (Bet365)

1 unit – Most Possessions – Lachie Neale @ $6.50 (Bet365)

Friday, June 26

Sydney vs Richmond 7:50PM AEST, SCG

 

The Tigers were brought crashing back down to Earth in their loss to the Eagles last weekend. It was a little disappointing, as they’d won four on the trot and had played some sensational footy, but all teams are entitled to an off week now and again. The test will be whether they can switch back on and take it up to the Swans in Sydney. Travelling should hold no fear for the Tigers, having knocked off the Dockers in Perth just a few short weeks ago. Can they do it again?

I expect this will be a tougher assignment; while Richmond played fantastic footy against the Dockers, Freo were definitely off their game. The Swans are rarely caught off guard, and having been beaten once on their home turf when they shouldn’t have, in round 5 by the Dogs, they’ll be sure to come out ready and firing. I’m expecting Sydney to be too good for the Tigers and to win by 6 or 7 goals.

Betting tip: 1 unit Swans by 25+ @ $1.91 (Centrebet)

Saturday, June 27

Hawthorn vs Essendon 1:40PM AEST, MCG

 

James Hird has copped a bit of flak in the media this week for his quick jaunt over to Europe, and is now under intense scrutiny to reverse the ailing fortunes of his club. The Bombers had a poor three weeks prior to the bye and will be hoping to be much more competitive this week, after apparently tweaking a few things during the week off. They won’t have it easy however, as the reigning champs are awaiting them.

Everyone is expecting the Hawks to win, but the pressure will be on Essendon to give them a fight and not let them break away for an easy win. I think they might be able to at least keep it to 5-7 goals but that’s about it. I’m going to look elsewhere this week for some better value bets.

Brisbane vs Adelaide 4:35PM AEST, The Gabba

 

Brisbane were pretty good for a half last week, before the Dogs blew the game out after half time. That has been the story of their year really, not being able to string consistent footy together. It’s to be expected when you’ve got so many injuries and are forced to play the kids, but they’re definitely capable of good footy. 

The Crows have dropped down to the middle of the pack after their impressive start to the season, mirroring the form of new skipper Tex Walker. He copped an unfortunate game-ending knee in the thigh from Sam Mitchell last week against the Hawks, and might struggle to be fully fit for this game. Another week’s rest might do him the world of good anyway, and I doubt the Crows will have too much trouble without him. The Lions will be unable to match them in the midfield, with Dayne Beams left to do his best against an in-form Patrick Dangerfield, as well as Rory Sloane, Scott Thompson etc. And the Lions don’t have a strong defensive unit to stop the damage occurring, so I’d think the Crows win by a comfortable margin.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Crows by 25+ @ $2.05 (Centrebet)

St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs 7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

It was only round 6 when these two teams last met, the game in which the Saints stormed back to a memorable victory after the Dogs led by as much as 55 points early in the 3rd term. Playing the Saints again so soon, the Dogs won’t have had the chance to forget about that game just yet, and I’m sure they’ll be saying to themselves, ‘Let’s get out to that lead again, boys. And this time instead of letting them back in, let’s double it in the second half’. Something along those lines, possibly with some choice words thrown in. 

Both sides will have learnt from the game early in the year. For the Saints, well, be wary of the fast style of play the Dogs were able to implement in the first half and make sure to pressure them from the get go. For the Dogs, they need to be adaptable when things change. Putting some work into Armitage and Steven might also be a good idea.

The Saints are fresh from the bye, while the Dogs had a relatively easy game last Saturday night, running away from the Lions in the second half, so expect this to be a high paced game of footy. I think the Dogs will get over the line this time, but expect it to be another close game.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dogs at the line of -17.5 @ $2.10 (Ladbrokes)

Sunday, June 28

Carlton vs Gold Coast 3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

In a week of footy sure to be full of lopsided results, this unlikely match-up looms as the game most likely to be a thriller. The Blues are high on confidence and the good vibrations that come from a rare win, while the Suns will be bolstered by some big inclusions; Steven May, Harley Bennell, and maybe, just maybe, skipper Gary Ablett. 

I’m really looking forward to seeing how this game pans out. I think it might be a really exciting game to watch. Maybe not the most highly skilled game of footy you’ve ever seen, but one of those games where the ball just keeps flying around and you don’t have time to take a breath. There will be a couple of points of interest individually in this one as well. Can Marc Murphy keep up his great form? What will Gary Ablett be like in his second return to footy after a severe shoulder injury? Can Patrick Cripps put some distance between himself and Angus Brayshaw in the Rising Star race while Melbourne have the week off?

In the end, Carlton’s experience should be able to get them over the line against the Suns, especially considering it’s in Melbourne. I’m expecting a relatively close contest throughout, and the Blues to pull away by a few goals towards the end.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Blues at the line of -11.5 @ $1.97 (Sportsbet)

Season Tally

Units Wagered: 84

Units Won: 77.3