AFL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 14 of the 2015 AFL season.

Thursday, July 2

Sydney vs Port Adelaide 7:20PM AEST, SCG

 

Round 14 kicks off with a very interesting game of footy. How are the Swans going to fare without the two big fellas, Buddy and Kurt, up forward? It will be interesting to see how the Swans go about trying to put a winning score on the board considering their usually rather heavy reliance on Buddy Franklin to kick goals. And can the Power take what is almost their last chance to make something of season 2015? Lose this game and they can just about kiss finals goodbye. They’ve struggled to score against the Swans in recent times and I’m not sure that they’ll be able to turn it around in this one considering their current form. Even with Buddy and Tippett out, I still think the Swans will be too dangerous for the Power and should be able to get home up at the SCG. How often do they lose two in a row up there?

Betting tip: 1 unit – Most Possessions – Luke Parker @ $5.00 (bet365)

Friday, July 3

Collingwood vs Hawthorn 7:50PM AEST, MCG

 

Collingwood did absolutely no harm to their reputation in last week’s loss to the Dockers, and in fact actually strengthened their claim as legitimate top four chances. They took it right up to the ladder leaders and now face another massive test in the reigning premiers. This will be a different type of game and a different test for the Pies. The Freo game was a defensive struggle, but the Hawks will try to score freely and open the game up. Collingwood’s defence will have to be top notch otherwise the Hawks will find holes in it and score heavily. 

Hawthorn are really starting to hit their straps and are building towards another finals assault, and I find it hard to see the Pies getting up. If they can keep it within 4 goals they’ll have done really well, but I think the Hawks might get away from them towards the end of the game and blow the margin out.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Hawks by 25+ @ $2.05 (Luxbet)

Saturday, July 4

Richmond vs GWS Giants 1:40PM AEST, MCG

 

Massive, massive win from the Tigers last Friday night at the SCG. They’ve now beaten Fremantle in Perth, and the Swans in Sydney. Regardless of anything else, that’s got to make them a big threat come September. They just need to make sure they keep their form up and keep beating the teams below them, while continuing to take it up to the better teams. Easier said than done, I know, but I think the Tigers are in for a big second half of the year, and it starts at the MCG against the Giants. 

 The Tigers should win this game. They’re up against a GWS team who is struggling with injuries to some key personnel and are probably feeling the pressure a little bit at this stage of the year. They still have a lot of young bodies, and it’s in the back half of the year where that really makes a big difference and the kids start to tire. They’ll need big efforts from some of the experienced guys like Ryan Griffen, Callan Ward, Tom Scully etc. if they’re to play finals. 

I expect the Tigers to be in front all day and win this one fairly comfortably. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Tigers by 25+ @ $1.70 (Sportsbet)

Gold Coast vs North Melbourne 4:35PM AEST, Metricon Stadium

 

There’s been so much going on at the Gold Coast since last Sunday’s loss to the Blues, and not much of it was positive. A drugs scandal is erupting, with Harley Bennell the first player to be publicly named and shamed; in quite distasteful fashion actually, a picture plastered on the front page of the news. He won’t be playing this weekend as the Suns are worried about his welfare, citing a poor current mental state. Fortunately for them, captain Gary Ablett will be an inclusion to face the Kangaroos. His return will be massive the Suns. Not only is one of the best players in the competition, he makes his teammates walk taller. They will be much more confident having Gary running around beside them. But I’m not sure it’s going to be enough to get the Suns a much needed win. It’ll probably take him a couple of weeks to get into the swing of things and start having a big impact. I wouldn’t be surprised if he spent a fair amount of time up forward in his first few games back, just to ease back into the pace of the game. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Roos at the line of -28.5 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton 7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

All of a sudden the Blues are playing some really good footy and aren’t the easy beats they were five or six weeks ago. They’ve won two in a row and have built some confidence up, with caretaker coach John Barker allowing them to play with a bit more freedom than they did under Mick Malthouse. It’ll be interesting to see whether they can keep this form up, as it’s not unusual for a team to play really well under a new coach, but revert back to old habits once the honeymoon period is over. Can Barker get through to the players and continue to have them play for him with the effort and intensity they’ve shown over the last few weeks? 

The Dogs will be another test for the coach and his players, as they’ve been really good at applying immense pressure to opposition teams this year. I expect the effort to still be there, but maybe the Blues don’t have the skills to break through the zone defence like some teams do. If they can’t they’ll give up too many scoring shots through turnovers and the Dogs should get the four points.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dogs by 1-39 @ $2.25 (UniBet)

Melbourne vs West Coast 7:40PM AEST, TIO Stadium

 

The Dees and the Eagles are both coming off the bye, as well as impressive wins in the week before the bye. The Dees had a win against the Cats that’s been described as almost ‘club defining’ or as a ‘line in the sand’ type of game, while the Eagles continued to strengthen their hold on a top four spot with a win against the in-form Tigers at the MCG.

I’m not expecting this to be a particularly entertaining game of footy. Being played at night time in Darwin, the conditions are likely to be very slippery for the players and it should therefore be a low scoring affair. I think the Eagles should win it relatively comfortably, but I’m betting on a low scoring game.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 160.50 @ $2.15 (LuxBet)

Sunday, July 5

Essendon vs St Kilda 1:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

The pressure on the Bombers continues to build and will reach catastrophic levels if they’re to lose to the Saints on Sunday. They really are in a big slump at the moment, and now a few injuries have come along just to make things that little bit worse. They’re struggling to score. They’re also struggling to win contested ball and clearances. It’s not a good combination. The key to a turn around in form will be an improvement in the middle of the ground. They need some players to step up and help Watson and Heppell win the ball out of the centre. Once they get that under control, it will help their forward woes, especially if they can get some clean breaks out of the middle.

The Saints continue to defy critics and play some really strong footy. Yes they have a lot of kids, but they’ve also still got their fair share of experience holding the team together and making it tough for the opposition to get on top. Their style of play against the Dogs wasn’t pretty, but it came so close to getting the job done for them. If they’re able to employ the same tactics and strangle Essendon then I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset. 

Betting tip: 1 unit – Saints to win @ $2.35 (LuxBet)

Adelaide vs Geelong 3:20PM AEST, Adelaide Oval

 

The Crows were lucky to get out of strife last week against the Lions in Brisbane. They looked certain to be staring down the barrel of a loss, but were good enough to turn things around in the last quarter and bank the all important four points. But not they’re not playing all that well at the moment, and Rory Sloane just can’t take a trick. 

 The Cats are in a similar boat, having played some good footy but also been disappointing at times, such as their in loss to Melbourne at the Cattery two weeks ago. I have a feeling that that game might sting them into action and jumpstart the rest of their season. I don’t expect them to be big players in September action but I think they’ll probably make the cut, and I’m tipping them to beat the Crows on Sunday in a close game.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Cats to win @ $2.20 (PalmerBet)

Fremantle vs Brisbane 4:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

While Round 14 might be starting with a bang, or at least a very interesting contest, the same can’t be said for its finale. The Dockers aren’t playing as well as they were in the first eight or so rounds of the season, but they’re still going along fairly well, and they’ll be much, much too good for the Lions in Perth. I can’t see any value in the line odds here so I’m going to avoid this one.

Season Tally

Units Wagered: 90

Units Won: 85.77