The following are previews with betting tips for Round 15 of the 2015 AFL season.
Thursday, July 9
Port Adelaide vs Collingwood
7:50PM AEST, Adelaide Oval
The Pies have been valiant in defeat in consecutive weeks against two of the best teams in the competition. Unfortunately, being valiant doesn’t get you any points, which means that it’s absolutely crucial for them to get a win tonight against the Power if they’re to continue being touted as a top four chance. It’ll be a hostile environment at the Adelaide Oval, but if any team is used to the pressure of big games and hostile environments, it’s the Pies.
While the Power haven’t been playing well at all, I’ve got a feeling that they’re going to use the rest of the year to really try to prove a point, as well as build for next year. They’re better than what they’ve dished up this year. There will be games in the second half of this year where the Power come out and play their absolute best footy and remind us of how good they can be. I think this game might be one of them, and I’m backing them to beat the Pies at home.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Power to win @ $1.92 (Ladbrokes)
1 unit – Most Possessions – Robbie Gray @ $6.00 (bet365)
Friday, July 10
Richmond vs Carlton
7:50PM AEST, MCG
The Tigers will be without ruckman Ivan Maric for their clash with the Blues on Friday night due to a one week suspension. The Tigers have struggled in the recent past when playing without him, and the Blues are in relatively good form at the moment, so don’t expect this to be an easy task for the Tigers.
With a bit of luck the Blues could have beaten the Dogs last week. They squandered opportunities and failed to make the most of their dominance in the second quarter, which would have put the Dogs under some real pressure. On the other hand, the Tigers were lucky to get out of jail against a determined Giants outfit. It wasn’t a pretty game of footy, but in the end the Tigers were good enough to do what needed to be done.
I really feel like this is a danger game for Richmond. I’m expecting it to be close all night, and in the end it wouldn’t surprise at all if the Blues managed to get up.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Blues at the line of +13.5 @ $2.20 (bet365)
Saturday, July 11
Essendon vs Melbourne
1:40PM AEST, MCG
Wow. The Bombers are in a dire situation right now. Even in the wildest dreams of Carlton or Collingwood fans, you wouldn’t have seen the Bombers losing by over 100 points to last year’s wooden spooners, the Saints. The news just got worse in the following couple of days, with news that skipper Jobe Watson will be out for the remainder of the year with a shoulder injury. They’re in a tough situation and it doesn’t look like there’s a way out for the Bombers, at least for the remainder of this season. The WADA appeal is clearly weighing on them, and it’s hard to see them regaining their mojo until it’s over and done with.
And so the Demons will go in as favourites! I’m not sure they handle the favourites tag all too well, and I’m not game to trust them, regardless of how poorly the Bombers are playing.
Taking into account the high probability of rain on Saturday, as well as the style Paul Roos likes his side to play footy, this will almost certainly be a low scoring affair, and that’s where I’m going to look for some value.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 152.50 @ $2.01 (LuxBet)
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast
4:35PM AEST, Cazalys Stadium
A fully fit Gary Ablett comes back into the side and all of a sudden, we finally see the Gold Coast Suns play football like a side that has the talent to plays finals. They won’t of course, not this year, but they could be a dangerous proposition for other sides in that 5-10 zone and could definitely help shape the bottom half of the eight. And this week they’ve got one of those teams looking to sneak into the finals, the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs will lose a few due to injury, most notably Jordan Roughead, who has been good in the ruck over the last few weeks.
Playing in Cairns is not likely to do the Dogs any favours. It will make it harder for the young, inexperienced bodies who aren’t used to playing in humid conditions. The ball will be slippery and the team that adjusts best to these conditions should win. A lot will come down to how the small forwards of each team perform. In a game that’s likely to be low scoring, a few sneaky, crumbing goals could be the difference between a win and a loss. I’m tipping the Gold Coast to be better in the conditions and to build on their big win from last week.
Betting tip: 2 units – Suns to win @ $2.32 (Pinnacle)
North Melbourne vs Geelong
7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
The Kangaroos were the first side to fall victim to a Gary Ablett led Suns team in 2015, and they won’t be the last, but the fashion in which it occurred was very disappointing. After making their way into a prelim final in 2014, we thought this might be the year that North would turn from inconsistently brilliant to brilliantly consistent and seriously challenge, but unfortunately they seem to be the same old North Melbourne. The task that they’ve now set for themselves is to sneak into the bottom half of the eight, and winning this game against the Cats is an absolutely essential step in doing that.
The Cats will be a real wildcard in this game. It’s been difficult enough as it is to get a good read of their form in 2015, and it will be interesting to see how they respond from having a week off in the wake of Phil Walsh’s death. They had the bye the week before, so they haven’t played a game of footy for three weeks. It’s an unprecedented situation in the middle of the season, and it’s hard to tell whether it will give them an advantage because they’ll be fresh, or whether it’ll act as a disadvantage because they’ll take a while to get back up to the pace of AFL footy.
I reckon it’ll be a good, close game of footy, but I’m going with the Kangaroos to keep their season alive with a narrow victory.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Kangaroos by 1-24 @ $3.50 (Sportsbet)
West Coast vs Adelaide
7:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium
The Adelaide Football Club has one of the toughest tasks in football history this week, trying to play a competitive game of AFL footy barely a week after their senior coach was murdered. I still feel shocked about the incident; it doesn’t feel real and is something that I haven’t been able to process properly, so I just can’t imagine how the Adelaide players and staff are going to be able to focus on playing a game of footy while still going through the grieving process.
The Eagles will also feel the emotion. Phil Walsh was an assistant coach with them from 2009-2013, so you’d think many of the current players would’ve been close with him.
It’s going to be an emotional day. Not an enjoyable day, but hopefully a cathartic one for all of those involved. Best of luck to both teams.
R.I.P. Phil Walsh
Sunday, July 12
GWS Giants vs St Kilda
1:10PM AEST, Spotless Stadium
The Saints played some glorious footy last weekend in their 110-point thumping of the Bombers, but it has to be said, their opposition was deplorable. Nonetheless, they couldn’t have played any better. If they play like that again this week they’ll go very close to beating the Giants.
GWS had what we like to call an honourable loss last week against the Tigers, but in reality, it was a game they could, and should, have won. After losing the past 3 games they’ll be desperate to get back on the winners list, and what better chance than playing at home against the Saints. I reckon the Giants will be firing themselves up for this game, and I’m tipping them to win by 5 or 6 goals.
Betting tip: 2 units – Giants by 25+ @ $3.10 (William Hill)
Hawthorn vs Fremantle
3:20PM AEST, Aurora Stadium
The match of round 15 would be more interesting if it was being played at the MCG, but we’ll take it anyway. Still a long way to go obviously, but It’s very possibly a Grand Final preview. The Hawks are building some really strong form, while the Dockers continue to cruise, which is an affordable privilege when you start your season off with nine straight wins.
It’s going to be raining, it’s going to be cold, it’s going to be windy. It’s probably not going to be a showcase game of footy. The result will be interesting however. The Hawks need the four points more than the Dockers do, and they should also cope with the conditions better, so I’m expecting them to get home.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Hawks by 1-24 @ $3.20 (Sportsbet)
Brisbane vs Sydney
4:40PM AEST, The Gabba
The Lions were great for three quarters against the Dockers in Perth last weekend. Unfortunately, they couldn’t keep up in the last quarter and Freo were able to run away with it. This week they face another top 3 side in the Swans, but at least this week they don’t have to travel. They might be brave again, but I just can’t see them actually beating the Swans, especially now that Buddy is back. There’s no value in the Swans, so I’ve looked elsewhere this week.
Units Wagered: 97
Units Won: 90.37