The following is a survey of previews and betting tips for the 2015 Crown Oaks, which is Race 8 at Flemington on Thursday, the 5th of November. The race is scheduled to run at 4:40 PM AEDT.
Selected previews for other races on the day are also included and betting promotions for Flemington on Thursday are provided.
Race 8 – Crown Oaks Group 1 – 2500m – 4:40 PM AEDT
Weather: Max 24. Cloudy 90% chance of rain 3-8mm
Profiling the race we learn the following:
– 3 of past 5 winners have used Wakeful as their lead up run
– 3 of past 5 winners have won at their last start
– 2 of past 5 winners have been SP favourites
Pasadena Girl – Only beaten 1.8 lengths to Jameka in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley when pattern was heavily against horses well off the speed. Only Tarzino & Jameka recorded faster last 200m splits in that event. She’s bred to run 2500m, has the right barrier and jockey and although she’s been disappointing this time in I won’t be laying her at early market price of $10-11.
Jameka – Last start winner of the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley over 2040m. Win was flattered by track bias which heavily favoured horses up on the speed, nearest to the fence. The third placed runner Tarzino has since won the VRC Derby so you must respect that form. She’s bred to handle wet conditions so only query I could have is the rise to 2500m. Expecting her to drift from $4.20 in early markets.
Sacred Eye – High class filly with genuine X-factor. Has dropped fast closing sectionals at every career start to date showing the ability to accelerate off a fast or slow tempo. A dominant last start winner of the G3 Caulfield Classic over 2000m. She ran the fastest last 600 of the race in 35.74 her final 400 23.80 200 12.08. That form has held up with the third placed horse Etymology a runner up in the VRC Derby to Tarzino. This filly is bred to handle the rise to 2500m and only needs cover and a patient Ryan Moore ride to win. $3.50 looks rock bottom, expect her to drift then firm late.
Ambience – Runaway winner of the G2 Wakeful Stakes which is generally the best profile for this race. Had a dream run in transit and with cut out of the ground recorded OK closing sectionals, her last 400 24.61 200 12.56. This filly is well suited to Flemington and clearly relishes ‘big tracks’. She only beat the ‘B’ graders last Saturday but has improved dramatically over the past few weeks.
BACK – WIN – SACRED EYE – Don’t take $3.50 early. They will bet at least $4.50.
LAY – E/W – HONESTA – Not sure there’s much improvement left in her.
Jayden Heys from Sportsbet (view full article)
1 – PASADENA GIRL ($8.00)
A top quality filly out of the Peter Moody stable, Pasadena Girl kicked off her career earlier this year with three wins from her first four starts, but has missed out in four runs since resuming this spring. She got the better of new Oaks favourite Jameka in finishing second in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley in April but has been trumped twice since, with a pair of fourth placings in the Group 1 1000 Guineas and Group 2 Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase at her last start. Last year’s Oaks-winning jockey Hugh Bowman takes the ride.
2 – JAMEKA ($3.70)
Unplaced just once in eight starts, Jameka announced herself as a major Oaks threat when she stepped out to 2040m in the Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase at Moonee Valley and was too good for the boys, beating Shards by a length and Victoria Derby winner Tarzino by almost two. The Ciaron Maher-trained star was a winner at Flemington earlier this year in the Group 2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes and the extra distance on Thursday should suit.
3 – SACRED EYE ($4.20)
The early Oaks favourite has drifted slightly in betting over the past few days but deserves consideration as one of the main chances. The David Hayes-trained filly out of the Coolmore stable has rock solid formlines through a string of proven performers this spring. At her most recent start she beat Victoria Derby runner-up Etymology by more than a length in the Caulfield Classic over 2000m on October 17 and easily accounted for Lexus Hybrid Stakes winner Don’t Doubt Mamma in running second in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes.
4 – AMBIENCE ($4.40)
Godolphin filly Ambience launched herself into the Oaks conversation with a 3.5-length win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes in her first run at Flemington on Saturday. She wasn’t far off Dawnie Perfect and Honesta in finishing third the Ethereal Stakes on October 17, but carried more weight than her Oaks rivals that day and continues to improve with each run.
5 – HONESTA ($13)
Is Sydney challenger Honesta’s luck about to turn? Her connections will be hoping so after a series of near misses in recent weeks. The grey filly out of Monaco Consul has been the bridesmaid at her last three starts, all at Group level and all by less than a length. She couldn’t hold off Dawnie Perfect but was just ahead of Ambience in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes, after coming up a nose short in the Group 1 Coolmore Flight Stakes and Tea Rose Stakes at Randwick. She often gets back in her races, which won’t suit the pattern of racing seen at Flemington thus far this spring, but she’ll be right in this.
6 – DAWNIE PERFECT ($12)
The star of Caulfield trainer Clarry Connors’ stable has traded blows with fellow Oaks fancies Honesta and Ambience this spring, with mixed results. She was too good in the Ethereal Stakes in her first attempt at 2000m but was then beaten four lengths in the Wakeful Stakes. In that race she was one of the runners who found Flemington’s dreaded slow lane out wide, yet still managed to make ground in the closing stages, improving from ninth at the 400m to fourth at the post.
7 – THE GREY FLASH ($101)
Another Oaks hopeful to have chanced her arm at the Ethereal Stakes and Wakeful Stakes double, The Grey Flash is yet to get near any of her rivals this spring. She was sixth and ninth at those two outings and finished alongside Oaks outsiders Princess Aria and Zarabeel in the Ethereal. Her lone win came in the Group 3 Sires Produce Stakes over 1400m at Morphettville in April, and this looks a tough ask.
8 – MUZYKA ($15)
Sydney fully Muzyka stepped up into Group company for the first time in the Wakeful Stakes and acquitted herself impressively, with Brenton Avdulla giving her a plum rails run into third place. Before that she broke her maiden status with a five-length win over 2100m at Wyong as a $1.80 favourite. Looms as a future staying star and if Avdulla can nestle her on the rails again out of barrier one, she’ll be right there at the finish.
9 – RITZY ($81)
Already a winner over 2000m at Hawkesbury last month, Ritzy didn’t disgrace herself in the Wakeful Stakes, finishing five lengths off winner Ambience but was one of the few horses that found any speed in the middle of the Flemington straight. Kerrin McEvoy rides the Anthony Cummings-trained filly for the first time.
10 – ZARABEEL ($34)
Yet to win in eight starts, Zarabeel has had few favours this Spring Carnival after settling near the rear of the field in both the Ethereal Stakes and Wakeful Stakes. But the Savabeel filly railed against the pattern of racing at Flemington on Saturday, moving through the field over the final 800m to vault from 13th to fifth, If Stephen Baster can produce some luck for her out of barrier seven, she’s not without a chance.
11 – DULVERTON ($17)
Given a different path to the Oaks compared to the majority of the field, Dulverton produced late speed to march from the back of the pack into fifth place in the 2200m Geelong Classic, just over two lengths behind winner Extra Choice. Her sole win came in a maiden at Hamilton over 1600m on September 21 and she disappointed in the Edward Manifold Stakes, finishing more than six lengths behind second-placed Sacred Eye and four lengths off Oaks outsider The Grey Flash.
12 – PRINCESS ARIA ($101)
The last of the Sydney candidates, Princess Aria is the obvious outsider in a field laden with future stars. She hung on gamely for fifth place in the Ethereal Stakes as a $101 shot and will need to thumb her nose at those odds again if she’s to get close over 2500m at Flemington on Thursday. The Marc Connors-trained and owned bay filly was a distant 12th in the Wakeful Stakes, almost 13 lengths behind Ambience, while Ritzy had the better of her at Kembla Grange on September 29 and Canterbury before that, where Dawnie Perfect was beaten by a nose over 1550m.
Lucy Henderson from Ladbrokes (view full article)
One of the strongest Oaks line-ups in some time the 12 fillies facing off all have genuine claims. Early favourite Sacred Eye hasn’t raced since the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes (2000m) win at Caulfield back on October 17, but she’s been lining-up all prep like the step up to the mile and a half or more will be to her liking. She’s a genuine staying type out to prove that here. Market mover is Jameka looking for back-to-back wins in the race for trainer Ciaron Maher. She has three-time winning hoop Damien Oliver aboard and brings in the Derby form from her last win when she beat subsequent VRC Derby winner Tarzino (3rd) in the Moonee Valley Vase. Also at single figures is the Wakeful Stakes winner Ambience for John O’Shea, a race that has produced more VRC Oaks winners than anything else.
The value? Pasadena Girl is a Group 1 winner that comes off two fourths when just off them in the Thousand Guineas and the Vase, can improve.
Lucy Henderson from Ladbrokes (view full article)
Race 1 – 12:05pm Red Rock Deli Plate (1700m)
The opener is a middle-distance handicap for fillies and mares where only three in the big field are under $10 for the win including the favourite Yellen who is from the Chris Waller stables and makes her Flemington debut here. Has winning form up to 1400m but did it easy over that distance at Kembla Grange last time out with 58.5kg, the drop back two kilos to suit. Big hope if the rain comes. Champagne Cocktail comes off back-to-back thirds and is set to peak and could prove hard to beat with the right run, while Hipster Girl is looking for another win after saluting by 2.5 lengths over 1500m at Mornington last month.
Race 2 – 12:40pm Swisse Wellness Trophy (1800m)
A Benchmark 90 over 1800m features pretty quality field where Berisha is shaping up as a livewire hope for Robert Smerdon. The progressive four-year-old has won two of his past three in easier company including over the Pakenham mile last start by three lengths. Down from 57kg to just 54kg so that’s another tick. Money is coming early for Firehouse Rock with Dwayne Dunn aboard the Lindsay Park galloper who won Caulfield’s Inglis Cup (2000m) two back and Plot The Course also has claims shooting for a third win on the trot.
Race 3 – 1:20pm Off The Track Subzero Challenge (1400m)
Small 10-horse field for the greys in the third in this always-popular Ladies Day clash. Really open market with the market mover and top fancy on the 54kg minimum being Harbour Grey. Drawn to win in barrier four and while this is a notable class rise, the lightly-raced galloper is tipped to handle it at just his fourth start. Will have to hold off the likes of the 59kg top weight Slate On Edge who looks in peak form and will cross from the wide barrier, and the defending champion Secret Toy Bizness who will relish gate two and is in top form to beat home the boys.
Race 4 – Group 3 Gucci Stakes (1100m)
First of the Group races on the card, this three-year-old fillies’ feature for the sprinters has a big field even with a couple of early scratchings with Secret Agenda the clear and firming favourite. Barrier four looks ideal and Damien Oliver has an excellent record on Crown Oaks Day. She was unlucky not to win the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m) last start on Caulfield Guineas Day and can atone. What’s there to beat the favourite? Money is rolling in for the widely-drawn Ottoman representing Godolphin first-up who needs to handle the Melbourne way, while at double figures the Blue Diamond – Golden Slipper placegetter from the autumn Lake Geneva looks back to her best after the black-type win on Cox Plate Day.
Race 5 – Listed TCL Curved TV Stakes (1800m)
Another black-type in this Listed staying showdown for the three-year-olds where a capacity field and markets are led by the 56kg top weight Ragnaar out in barrier 15 (into 14). Definite class factor about this NZ-bred galloper who was beaten under two lengths in the Geelong Classic (2200m) over further last time out with the same weight. Loyalty Man comes off a nearly three length victory over the Bendigo mile with 58kg and is down tow kilos here, while double figures for Bullish Stock looks generous with the eighth in the Geelong Classic better than it looks on paper and the breeding there sharing the same sire as this year’s Victoria Derby winner Tarzino.
Race 6 – Listed Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes (1000m)
Listed racing continues here down the straight and again it’s an open market in a throw-a-dart kind of day. Early money is on Nicoscene who is still over $10 with the 59kg, Damien Oliver on the returning Nicconi stallion who won a Group 2 in Adelaide last time out back in May and usually runs a good race fresh. Shorter in betting are the likes of the David Hayes & Tom Dabernig-trained last start Moonee Valley winning mare Tawteen and The Quarterback who was runner-up to Fast ‘N’ Rocking in similar class last time out.
Race 7 – Group 3 G.H. Mumm Stakes (1100m)
The lead-up before the Group 1, the older mares face off here and if she runs Lumosty is the one to beat even at her firming price from the wide gate with the big weight. She has 59kg, but her record on straight tracks is nothing short of excellent and will love a soft track. Lots of value in this line-up including Tuscan Sling for Melbourne Cup winning trainer / jockey combo Weir / Payne and crazy odds offered for Group 1 placed I Love It.
Race 9 – Crown Resorts Plate (1600m)
A capacity field for the card closer, markets for this mile handicap led early by Rock Forthe Ladies who is drawn ideally in gate three for jockey Glen Boss and comes off three straight wins including over 1500m at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate eve. On the improve and the mile will suit. Black-type winner over the distance two back Excites Zelady and Darren Weir’s Seymour Cup fifth placegetter Burning Front also have claims coming off nice lead-up form.
2015 Crown Oaks Day Bookmaker Promotions
Flemington (Thu) – Race 4 – Refund if 2nd or 3rd
Place a fixed odds win bet in the Gucci Stakes at Flemington this Crown Oaks Day, and if your horse runs second or third, Bookmaker will give you your cash back. Max refund $50.
Flemington (Thu) – Races 1-4 – Refund if 2nd or 3rd
If your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in races 1 to 4 at Flemington this Thursday 5th November 2015 get your money back. Max bet $25; Fixed odds only; Applies to first ‘win’ bet placed on each race; Applies to final field bet placed; Full T&Cs apply.
Flemington (Thu) – Races 1-5 – 50% Winner Bonus
Have a fixed odds win bet in Races 1 through to 5 this Thursday at Flemington, and if your first bet on any of these races is a winner Ladbrokes will give you 50% extra on top. Max bet $50 per race. Fixed odds win bets only. Only the first bet placed in each race will be eligible for 50% extra. 50% extra payout will only be awarded once per customer and once per day.
Flemington (Thu) – Races 1-5 – Bookies Best +30%
Place a Bookies Best bet on any of the first 5 races at Flemington on Crown Oaks day (Thurs, 5th Nov.), and Luxbet guarantee you’ll get 30% more winnings than the best price of Sportsbet’s Top Tote Plus, CrownBet’s Best Tote Plus, Bet365’s 365 Best and William Hill’s Best Tote +. Maximum Stake $50.
Flemington (Thu) – Race 6 – Refund if 2nd or 3rd
Have a fixed odds win bet in the Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes at Flemington on Thursday, and if your horse runs second or third, Betstar will give you your cash back. Max refund $50.
Flemington (Thu) – Multi Bet Insurance
Place a 3+ Leg Fixed Odds Win multi at Flemington on Thursday. If your 3+ Leg Fixed Odds Win multi fails by 1 leg, CrownBet will match your stake up to $50 with a Bonus Bet. Applies to your first 3+ Leg Fixed Odds Win multi only placed after 1pm AEDT Wednesday.
Flemington (Thu) – Crown Oaks – Bonus Bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Place a Fixed Odds Win bet on the Crown Oaks on Thursday. If your horse runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th, CrownBet will match your stake up to $50 with a Bonus Bet. Applies to your first bet on each race placed after 1pm Tuesday AEDT. Excludes Each-Way bets.
Flemington (Thu) – All Races – Best Tote or SP + 20%
Ladbrokes are offering Best Tote or SP + 20% on every race at Flemington this Thursday, which means an additional 20% on your winnings across the whole day. Max bet $50.