The following are previews with betting tips for Round 7 of the 2016 AFL season.
Friday, May 6
Richmond v Hawthorn
7:50PM AEST, MCG
Here are the positives for the Tigers: they’ve played some good footy against the Hawks over the past few years, and the Hawks are looking slightly vulnerable right now. Now for the negatives: the Hawks don’t like being embarrassed and will be looking to atone in a big way for last week’s debacle. Oh, and the Tigers are currently a bit of a rabble.
They’ll be searching far and wide to find a silver lining for the way their season has begun. Yes, they’ve made the eight from similar situations over the last three years, but with the way everything is looking at the moment, it’s almost impossible it happens again. Especially if they lose this game, which, let’s be honest, is almost a dead certainty. The Hawks won’t lose two in a row, especially not against a struggling Tigers outfit. Let’s just hope the Tigers show some fight.
Betting tip: Hawthorn by 25+ @ $1.42 (LuxBet)
Saturday, May 7
Collingwood v Carlton
1:45PM AEST, MCG
The Blues have two on the trot and are starting to get a taste for that winning feeling – but they’ll need to savour every second of it for now, and remind themselves that wins will be sparse in 2016. They’ll be feeling pretty good about this rebuilding business though, after knocking off one bitter rival and having the next one in their cross hairs.
Even without young guns Patrick Cripps and Jacob Weitering (for most of the game), they were able to withstand everything the Bombers could throw at them. The Pies will obviously be a much greater challenge, but it’s far from an un-winnable game. Both clubs are coming off six day breaks, but Collingwood had to travel to Perth last week so if it’s tight towards the end of the game that could be a factor. Overall, while Carlton may be a sneaky chance here, you’ve got to stick with the Pies. It’ll be interesting to see whether they’re able to crush the Blues (like they did Essendon), or whether it turns out to be a tightly fought battle. I’m predicting the latter.
Betting tip: Collingwood to win @ $1.57 (Sportsbet)
Geelong v West Coast
2:10PM AEST, Simonds Stadium
The Eagles keep notching up big wins at home, but unfortunately Perth is not the place for them to answer the questions over their premiership credentials. Simonds Stadium could be however. A win against the Cats down at Geelong would silence most of the folks saying that the Eagles struggle to play outside of Perth, and would do wonders for their confidence. With a fully fit team, I’d give them a sniff of an upset, but with the news that both Jack Darling and Jeremy McGovern are sore and may not come up, this might not be the greatest chance they’ll have of taking a big scalp in Victoria.
The Cats continue to purr along nicely, with the synergy between Dangerfield and Selwood growing each week. They’re not going to drop many games in Geelong this year; they should win this one fairly easily to set up a mouth-watering clash with the Crows next Friday night.
Betting tip: Geelong to win @ $1.47 (CrownBet)
Sydney v Essendon
4:35PM AEST, ANZ Stadium
After a barnstorming start to the year, the Swans were lucky to get out of jail against the Lions on the weekend. But a bit of luck and a timely stretcher was enough to carry them to a too-close-for-comfort victory. The Lions were impressive and will trouble more than a few teams – especially at home – if they can keep that sort of form up, but the narrow escape should remind the Swans not to take anyone too lightly; a lesson that will be useful this weekend when they face the Bombers.
Essendon weren’t bad against the Blues, they just lacked the class and firepower up forward to get over the line. Which could become a common theme for them over the course of the year when playing sides down towards the bottom of the ladder they’re a chance of beating. This contest clearly won’t be considered one of those chances. Even if the Bombers can find a few more avenues to goal and improve on their efficiency, they’re still not going to snatch a win against the Swans. I’m tipping Buddy has a day out and kicks a lazy six or seven to back up his five last week.
Betting tip: Most Goals – Lance Franklin @ $2.00 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast v Melbourne
5:10PM AEST, Metricon Stadium
The season is rapidly slipping out of grasp for the Suns as they approach a tough couple of weeks in their fixture, which makes this game a must win to keep their season alive. They’ve asked for more from skipper Gary Ablett, and it’s going to take his absolute best to get them anything more than one win from their next four weeks. They’ll know that the up-and-down Demons are probably their best chance for a while, so should give it their all up at Metricon to get a much needed win.
On the other hand, barring a huge game from young star Jesse Hogan, the Demons were ordinary against a Saints outfit they probably should have beaten. They still struggle at Etihad which is something they’ll need to deal with eventually, but for now, let’s wait and see if they can head up to the Gold Coast and get the points, away from home, against a team that’s in a similar position to them. I reckon the disappointment from last week will spur them to a strong win, as they’ve shown in the past that they don’t mind bouncing back after a poor loss.
Betting tip: Melbourne to win @ $2.02 (LuxBet)
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
7:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
This will be another massive game for the Dogs, following on from their Friday night arm-wrestle with the Roos. That was a disappointing game for them; they had more than enough opportunities, but they were sloppy with the ball and just couldn’t find enough ways to kick goals.
The Crows took care of the Dockers in what was a fairly run-of-the-mill affair that didn’t reach any great heights. This game could be different, both clubs play exciting footy, are capable of moving the ball quickly and have more than a few excitement machines between them. But as we witnessed on Friday night, the Dogs are capable of shutting a game down and locking down on their opposition’s scoring opportunities, so expect the same to happen this week. The question will be, can they themselves score enough to get the four points? Considering their outs, I doubt it. Bringing in Jack Redpath as a focal point up forward has to be a good move, but he’s not a gun key forward and probably won’t be enough to generate the score needed to get them over the line against a Crows side that is running on all cylinders.
Betting tip: Adelaide to win @ $2.19 (Pinnacle)
Fremantle v GWS Giants
8:40PM AEST, Subiaco Oval
The Dockers were much improved against the Crows on the weekend, and could’ve been right in the game if not for poor goal kicking. And the Giants, well, they made a big statement against the Hawks. Watching them beat up on the reigning premiers was scary, but let’s not get too carried away by one game. It’s a long year, all clubs go through ups and downs, and they need to play well consistently if they’re to be regarded as a genuine premiership threat. They’re probably not at that stage yet – at least not this year – but on their day they’re capable of beating anyone.
I’ve got a feeling this could be a danger game for the Giants. A road trip to Perth is never easy. The Dockers definitely looked better last weekend, and surely they’ve got to win one soon. If the Giants get a bit caught up in believing their own hype and take the foot off the pedal at all, don’t be surprised if the Dockers notch up their first win of the year.
Betting tip: Fremantle to win @ $3.35 (Sportsbet)
Sunday, May 8
St Kilda v North Melbourne
3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
Speaking of danger games and clubs that are due for a win or loss, the Kangaroos have stormed to 6-0 and are every chance to go 7-0 following this clash with the Saints on Sunday afternoon. But there’s also a chance of an upset here if the Saints are able to produce their best again. They love playing at Etihad and could worry the Kangaroos if they’re able to move the ball quickly through the middle of the ground via guys like Steven, Montagna and Armitage.
However it’ll take a massive effort from the Saints to shut down the potent forward line the Kangaroos have at their disposal, and this will ultimately be what decides the game. Jarrad Waite is in just about career-best form and is marking absolutely everything, while Petrie and Brown make pretty solid ‘backups’. I do believe the Saints are a chance of an upset, but everything would need to go right for them, and in all likelihood the Roos will finish up Sunday arvo at 7-0.
Betting tip: Kangaroos by 1-39 @ $2.25 (William Hill)
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
4:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval
Port kept their season alive with a solid win over the Tigers on Saturday night at the MCG, and they’ve now got the chance to consolidate on that victory and start building towards something. The Lions have shown the past two weeks that they can’t afford to be taken lightly, so Port will need to be switched on to make sure they get the points. Dayne Beams will be a more than welcome addition if he gets up for this week, adding some more class to their already fairly strong midfield group.
A Lions win is not out of the question, but, at home, the Power should be good enough to beat them by a few goals and all of a sudden find themselves sitting at 4-2, after what has undoubtedly been a disappointing start to the year.
Betting tip: Port Adelaide to win @ $1.45 (Marathon Bet)
Best Bets of the Round
Collingwood to win @ $1.57 (Sportsbet)
All Bets: +4.74 units
Best Bets: -1.42 units
(Assuming 1 unit per bet)