2016 State of Origin – Game 1 Betting Preview

The following is a betting preview with tips for Game 1 of the 2016 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions and competitions are also listed.

Queensland won back the title last year but the Blues will host two of the three games this series.

2016 State of Origin Schedule

Each game will be televised live on Nine.

Game 1 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins

Game 2 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 22 June 2016

Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 13 July 2016

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Year Winner W L D Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
2000 NSW 3 0 0 NSW 20-16 QLD
QLD 10-28 NSW
NSW 56-6 QLD
2001 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 34-16 NSW
NSW 26-8 QLD
QLD 40-14 NSW
2002 QLD 1 1 1 NSW 32-4 QLD
QLD 26-18 NSW
NSW 18-18 QLD
2003 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 12-25 NSW
NSW 27-4 QLD
QLD 36-6 NSW
2004 NSW 2 1 0 NSW 9-8 QLD
QLD 22-18 NSW
NSW 34-16 QLD
2005 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 24-20 NSW
NSW 32-22 QLD
QLD 10-32 NSW
2006 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 17-16 QLD
QLD 30-6 NSW
NSW 14-16 QLD
2007 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 25-18 NSW
NSW 6-10 QLD
QLD 4-18 NSW
2008 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 18-10 QLD
QLD 30-0 NSW
NSW 10-16 QLD
2009 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 28-18 NSW
NSW 14-24 QLD
QLD 16-28 NSW
2010 QLD 3 0 0 NSW 24-28 QLD
QLD 34-6 NSW
NSW 18-23 QLD
2011 QLD 2 1 0 QLD 16-12 NSW
NSW 18-8 QLD
QLD 34-24 NSW
2012 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 10-18 QLD
NSW 16-12 QLD
QLD 21-20 NSW
2013 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 14-6 QLD
QLD 26-6 NSW
NSW 10-12 QLD
2014 NSW 2 1 0 QLD 8-12 NSW
QLD 32-8 NSW
2015 QLD 2 1 0 NSW 10-11 QLD
QLD 18-26 NSW
QLD 52-6 NSW


Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 14-1-7 record in Sydney while Queensland are 16-6 in Brisbane since 2000. NSW have won four of their last six at ANZ Stadium while Queensland have won seven of their last eight at Suncorp Stadium.

2016 State of Origin Game 1 Squads

New South Wales

1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Paul Gallen, 11. Boyd Cordner, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Greg Bird

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker, 15. James Tamou, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Josh Dugan was originally selected to play at centre but had to withdraw due to an elbow injury. He has been replaced replaced by Josh Morris.

The in-form Adam Reynolds gets the nod at halfback while James Maloney has also been rewarded for this strong form, getting his first call-up since 2013 at five-eighth. Winger Josh Mansour gets his first Origin cap having already played for the Kangaroos.

The bench looks strong and heavy, featuring three props forwards, but it possibly lacks pace. Dylan Walker’s selection has surprised many. His versatility may have played a role. Michael Ennis is one of those who can consider himself unlucky not to have been selected.

Robbie Farah hasn’t been in great NRL form and hasn’t been 100% healthy this year, so a poor game on Wednesday could put his spot under scrutiny.


1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Nate Myles, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Josh McGuire, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii

Since being selected, Cooper Cronk has rolled his ankle in training and is now in doubt to play. Jacob Lillyman will replace Cronk if he is ruled out.

Despite the likes of Billy Slater, Will Chambers and the retired Justin Hodges not featuring, this is still a highly experienced Queensland side. Part of that may be due to a number of young players missing this year’s Origin series due to bad behaviour at a Queensland camp earlier in the year. It may also be that new coach Kevin Walters doesn’t want to wreck a winning formula that he has inherited from Mal Meninga.

Some of the selections appear to be based on prior service rather than 2016 form, with Nate Myles having a sub-par season and Sam Thaiday playing off the bench for the Broncos. The backline looks lethal but New South Wales may feel they have supremacy in the forwards.

It will be interesting to see how much the presence of Justin Hodges is missed. Another big departure is coach Mal Meninga, who led Queensland to nine titles in the last ten years.

Will Chambers isn’t yet fit but is considered a good chance of making the Origin 2 side.

ANZ Stadium History

Fixtures at ANZ Stadium tend to have lower total scores and narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 40.1 in Brisbane compared to 32.6 in Sydney. During this time, 9 games were won by 1-12 points and 13 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 17 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 14 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less during this time, compared to seven 1-12 results and eight 13+ results in Brisbane.

Bookmaker Odds Comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in our bookmaker odds section. Game 1 odds and markets can be viewed here.

At the time of writing the best head-to-head odds for New South Wales are 1.88 with Ladbrokes, Bookmaker and Betstar. The best odds for Queensland are 2.139 with Pinnacle Sports.

Over/Under Betting

There has been a strong downward trend in total scores at ANZ Stadium. The average total score since 2000 is 32.6, however the average since 2005 is 29.6, the average since 2010 is 21.2 and the average since 2013 is 18.3.

Based on this trend I recommend taking under 31.5 at 1.88 with William Hill. Most other bookmakers have set the over/under market at 30.5 so this selection may not last.

Head-to-head, Line and Winning Margin Betting

Since 2011 the Blues have won four of the last six at ANZ Stadium, with all of those wins coming by 10 points or less. You have to go back to 2004 for the last time NSW won by more than 10 points in Sydney.

When Queensland win in Sydney, it tends to be by small margins. Since 2000 only won of their seven wins in Sydney have come by more than 6 points.

Based on the winning margins spreads, I can’t recommend any head-to-head or line picks, however I do like the following winning margin selections:

NSW 1-12 at 2.75 (William Hill)
QLD 1-7 at 5.50 (William Hill)

Since 2005 the above pair of selections have won in 13 out of 14 fixtures.

2016 State of Origin – Game 1 Bookmaker Promotions

Below is a selection of bookmaker promotions for 2016 State of Origin Game 1. You can view all active promotions in the Bookmaker Promotions section.

IMPORTANT NOTICE FOR NSW RESIDENTS: as of January 4, 2016, NSW Regulation prohibits the publishing of any betting promotions in New South Wales.

King of Origin Free Tipping Comp

King of Origin Screenshot

CrownBet have launched a free King of Origin tipping competition for this year’s Origin series.

The competition is free to enter and there are $200,000 worth of Crown Rewards points up for grabs. No deposit is required.

To participate, you make picks for the following categories:
– the winning team
– first player to reach 100 meters
– most tackles
– most fantasy points

For each category you are given two selections to choose from. You simply have to pick the most likely winner. The winner(s) of the competition will be all participants that make correct picks in all four categories. The winners will share equally in the total value of the prize for that game. If any of the Categories results in a draw both selections will be considered correct.

There are effectively three separate competitions in line with the NRL State of Origin Series on the following dates:
– Game 1: June 1, 2016
– Game 2: June 22, 2016
– Game 3: July 13, 2016

20 Million Crownbet Rewards points will be awarded across the 3 State of Origin matches as follows:
– Game 1: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 2: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 3: 10,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points

Learn more about the King of Origin tipping competition


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