AFL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for Round 14 of the 2016 AFL season.

View and compare bookmaker odds for this round
View the form guide for this round

Thursday, June 23

 

Adelaide v North Melbourne 7:50PM AEST, Adelaide Oval View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v North Melbourne

 

The first of a string of four Thursday night blockbusters is an absolutely massive game in the context of the top eight. The Kangaroos relinquished their spot on top of the ladder after being defeated by the Hawks last Friday night, and a fourth loss in five weeks would likely see them fall out of the top four. The Crows are looking to establish themselves in the top eight and a win here would prove that they’re a force to be reckoned with. They should be cherry ripe coming off the bye, and the Kangaroos are there for the taking; they welcome back key midfielders Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington, but lose the in-form Daniel Wells and are still without Jarrad Waite.

It’s going to be tough for the Roos over in Adelaide, but they’re a really good footy side this year. I reckon the Crows might have too much firepower up forward for them to contain, but they’ll be sure to make a contest of it and while I think the Crows will probably get over the line, I don’t expect it’ll be by all that much.

Betting tip: North Melbourne at the line of +26.5 @ $1.70 (Bet365)

Friday, June 24

 

Collingwood v Fremantle 7:50PM AEST, MCG View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Fremantle

 

I’m not sure how many times in history a club has lost ten games in a row and then proceeded to win their next three, but I’m guessing it hasn’t happened very often. And now the Dockers have every chance to make it four in a row on Friday night when they take on Collingwood at the MCG. The bye came at the right time for the Pies, as they looked very tired against the Dees in the Queen’s Birthday clash. They should now be rested and energised, looking to get back to the form that saw them beat the Cats and narrowly go down to the Dogs.

This could go either way, depending on how the Pies have regrouped during their week off. Back to close to their best, they win comfortably, but if they’re not 100% the resurgent Dockers might be in for another win. If Michael Barlow can again perform a solid tagging role on either Pendlebury or Sidebottom the Dockers will like their chances. Being at the ‘G, I’m backing the Pies to be too hard to get over, but I’m expecting it to be a really hard fought contest.

Betting tip: Collingwood at win @ $1.79 (Palmerbet)

Saturday, June 25

 

Richmond v Brisbane 1:40PM AEST, MCG View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Brisbane

 

To be perfectly honest there’s not really a game of footy to get overly excited about this weekend other than the Thursday night clash between the Crows and Kangaroos. The Saturday and Sunday matches all look like they could end up being blowouts. The first of them is the Tigers hosting the Lions at the MCG, and it’s fair to say that the Tigers should be eyeing it off as an easy win and a big percentage booster. They’re still talking finals, so they’ll need to take every opportunity they get and a big win over the Lions is the place to start.

The Lions have had a horror first half of the year and will surely be looking forward to their week off. The problem is that it might not be all that peaceful; another big loss will only ramp up the pressure on coach Justin Leppitsch. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear that there’s much he can do to stop the rot at the moment.

Betting tip: Richmond to win by 25+ @ $1.45 (William Hill)

 

GWS Giants v Carlton 4:35PM AEST, Spotless Stadium View a detailed form guide for GWS Giants v Carlton

 

The Giants did well in the end to get through with a win against the Bombers after playing poorly for most of the game. You can’t afford to lose those sorts of games if you expect to finish top four. No doubt they’ll be disappointed with the fact they didn’t turn up to play and clearly took a win for granted, but getting away with the four points means everything worked out OK for them in the end.

We know the Blues are a pretty good side when they’re fit and firing, so the Giants will need to learn from last week and make sure they turn up ready to go. Being at home makes it a massive task for the Blues, who will still be without skipper Marc Murphy. They’ll give it everything they’ve got, but beating the Giants at home would take something special. I reckon GWS will get it done by a fairly comfortable 6 or 7 goals.

Betting tip: GWS to win by 25+ @ $1.34 (William Hill)

 

St Kilda v Geelong 7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Geelong

 

The Cats strengthened their premiership credentials with a barnstorming victory over the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night and are now deserved premiership favourites. At their best, the Cats are going to prove very, very difficult to beat. Their main issue will be whether they can beat the Swans, Hawks and Kangaroos if Dangerfield and Selwood don’t fire. They’re both absolute superstars, but you still can’t be too reliant on a couple of players to win a flag.

For now they just need to make sure they don’t drop off against lower rated opposition like they did earlier in the year against the Pies and the Blues. With the way they’ve played in the past three weeks, they should end up beating the Saints by 10 goals. Percentage will be extremely important in shaping the top four at the season’s end, so they need to take advantage of any chances they get at boosting it and keeping it nice and high.

Betting tip: Geelong by 40+ @ $2.22 (Pinnacle)

Sunday, June 26

 

Hawthorn v Gold Coast 3:20PM AEST, Aurora Stadium View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Gold Coast

 

The Suns will be hoping for a much better second half of the year, but more importantly, a much kinder run with injuries. They’ve copped it like no one else over the last two years, and are surely due for some good luck on the injury front. If they do manage to welcome some important players back they could cause a few headaches in the race to the finals, as they’ve got plenty of talent on their list.

The Hawks in Tassie is not a game they’ll win, but they can start their second half of the year on a positive note but making the Hawks earn it and keeping the final margin under six goals, which would be an entirely respectable result. The Hawks will be looking forward to a less stressful encounter at their second home, after fighting off a spirited Kangaroos side at the ‘G on Friday night. They’ll get the points, but probably won’t be going hell for leather trying to win by 15 goals. Still, the Suns aren’t much chop at the moment, and the Tasmania factor probably gives the Hawks an extra four goal advantage before the ball is bounced, so they’re still likely to get up by plenty.

Betting tip: Hawthorn by 40+ @ $1.58 (TopSport)

 

Best Bets of the Round

Richmond to win by 25+ @ $1.45 (William Hill)

 

Season Tally

All Bets:        +8.06 units

Best Bets:     +0.59 units