Rio 2016 Olympics Medal Tally Predictions

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With the Rio 2016 Olympics kicking off in just a few days, we have surveyed various medal tally projections to assist you with medal tally betting. The data sources are Gracenote, the Associated Press and Sports Illustrated.

Olympics betting has come a long way in recent years. Most bookmakers this year offer various medal tally markets as well as winner markets for virtually every event.

This article will focus on gold medal tally predictions for Australia.

Gracenote

Sports data provider Gracenote has projected the following table.

Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Total
1 United States 41 23 28 92
2 China 31 26 24 81
3 Russia 20 23 20 63
4 Great Britain 18 16 17 51
5 Germany 16 16 18 50
6 Australia 16 13 13 42
7 Japan 14 10 14 38
8 France 12 17 18 47
9 Korea 10 5 10 25
10 Brazil 8 9 3 20
11 Kenya 8 5 3 16
12 New Zealand 7 11 7 25
13 Netherlands 7 9 10 26
14 Cuba 7 5 4 16

 

For those who are looking to back individual Australians, Gracenote have predicted the following gold medals for Australia (source: Fox Sports):

Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Jessica Fox (Canoe/Slalom K1)
Men’s team pursuit (cycling)
Men’s hockey team
Men’s four (rowing)
Kim Brennan (rowing)
Mathew Belcher/Will Ryan (sailing – 470)
Tom Burton (sailing – laser)
Women’s rugby sevens team
Warren Potent (shooting)
Mitch Larkin x 2 (swimming, 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm x 2 (swimming, 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke)
Cameron McEvoy (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Cate Campbell (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Bronte Campbell (50m freestyle, swimming)
Women’s 4x100m freestyle relay team

Associated Press

The Associated Press have published a full list of medal predictions. We’ve made an attempt to generate a medal tally from their predictions and have arrived at the following:

Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Total
1 United States 53 35 43 131
2 China 31 24 23 78
3 Great Britain 22 17 18 57
4 Australia 14 19 10 43
5 Russia 14 10 12 36
6 Japan 12 8 15 35
7 France 11 11 18 40
8 Brazil 11 7 11 29
9 New Zealand 11 5 7 23
10 Germany 10 21 16 47
11 South Korea 8 4 7 19
12 Cuba 7 6 4 17
13 Netherlands 6 8 11 25
14 Kenya 5 7 7 19

 

They have predicted gold for Australia in the following disciplines:

Jared Tallent (50k walk)
Sam Willoughby (Men’s BMX)
Caroline Buchanan (Women’s BMX)
Men’s field hockey
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Kimberley Brennan (single sculls)
Mathew Belcher-William Ryan (sailing – 470)
James Willett (shooting – double trap)
Mitch Larkin (men’s 200m backstroke)
Cate Campbell (women’s 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 200m backstroke)
4×100 freestyle relay
4×100 medley relay

Sports Illustrated

Sports Illustrated have also published a complete list of expected winners of each event.

Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Total
1 U.S. 45 34 39 118
2 China 45 25 15 85
3 Australia 20 21 9 50
4 Great Britain 16 20 17 53
5 France 15 10 14 39
6 Russia 14 16 29 59
7 Germany 14 13 20 47
8 Japan 13 7 14 34
9 South Korea 10 11 10 31
10 Netherlands 4 11 7 22

 

They have predicted gold for Australia in the following disciplines:

Matthew Glaetzer (cycling – sprint)
Cycling – team pursuit
Anna Meares (cycling – Keirin)
Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Men’s field hockey
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Kim Brennan (rowing – single sculls)
Rowing – women’s quadruple sculls
Women’s rugby sevens
Cameron McEvoy (swimming – 100m freestyle)
Mack Horton (swimming – 400m freestyle)
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 200m backstroke)
Cate Campbell (swimming – 50m freestyle)
Cate Campbell (swimming – 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (swimming 200m backstroke)
Madeline Groves (swimming – 200m butterfly)
Swimming – 4 × 100m women’s freestyle relay
Swimming – 4 × 100m women’s medley relay

Pooled Results – Australia’s Gold Medals

Two out of the three sources have predicted Australia will win gold in the following disciplines:

Cameron McEvoy (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Women’s rugby sevens
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Men’s team pursuit (cycling)
Swimming – women’s 4×100m medley relay
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Mathew Belcher/Will Ryan (sailing – 470)

All three sources have predicted Australia will win gold in the following disciplines:

Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Cate Campbell (swimming – women’s 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 200m backstroke)
Mitch Larkin (men’s 200m backstroke)
Men’s field hockey
Swimming – women’s 4x100m freestyle relay
Kim Brennan (rowing – single sculls)

These lists are useful for those looking to take advantage of CrownBet’s Olympics promotion (see the Promotions section for further details).

You can compare the latest bookmaker odds for Olympics event betting in the Bookmaker Odds Comparison section.

Pooled Results – Over/under Medal Betting

Luxbet have set the following over/under marks for Australia’s gold medal count:

Over 12.5+ 1.33
Under 12.5- 3.30

Over 14.5+ 2.00
Under 14.5- 1.80

Over 16.5+ 3.50
Under 16.5- 1.30

Other bookmaker totals for Australia’s gold medals are:

William Hill:
Over (13.5) 1.75
Under (13.5) 2.00

Sportsbet:
Over (13.5) 1.75
Under (13.5) 2.00

Unibet:
Over (13.5) 1.67
Under (13.5) 2.10

Pinnacle:
Over (12.5): 1.369
Under (12.5): 3.150

It seems there’s a major jump in odds between 12.5 and 13.5. For exact gold medal betting, the shortest odds are for 14, 15 and 16 golds, which are each at 7.00 odds with both Luxbet and Palmerbet.

At least two of the three sources agree on gold for Australia in 15 events, with individual projected tallies of 14, 16 and 20. In addition at least once source has predicted Australia will win gold in another 14 events.

Based on this we’d be inclined to take over 13.5 at 1.75 with either William Hill or Sportsbet.

 

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