The following are betting comments for Round 4 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Man United vs Man City |
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This will be one of the key matches in the season. Man City have a couple of key players out and this only strengthens the value claim against them. Man Utds home form is near perfect and this coupled with Man Cities poor away form, especially to grade 1 sides (50% of games result in the home side winning, odds of 2.00) leave little doubt where the value lies here.
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Arsenal vs Southampton |
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The stats alone suggest Southampton are good value,however, the head to head record is against them and the Asian Handicap of Arsenal with a -1 goal start looks to be exactly correct here. Arsenal will probably win this but there is no value backing them according to the overall and similar games stats in this report.
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Bournemouth vs West Brom |
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You’d be a brave man to back Bournemouth here who have been priced as if they have an almost 50% chance of winning this game. The stats differ, Bournemouth against all opposition on a rolling season basis have won only 5 games and against similar opposition, (a small record of 6 games), 5 ended in defeat. West Brom are no pushovers either and they have only lost 7 of their last 19 away from home. Backing West Brom in some way is the value bet here.
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Burnley vs Hull |
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This is a hard game to evaluate as the records used for both teams are when they were last in the premiership (2014/15 season). This added to the fact that neither team show any real value (Slight skew towards Hull in the similar opposition stats), makes it a game to avoid.
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Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace |
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Again a lack of stats for newly promoted Middlesbrough make this a hard game to evaluate. Having said that Palace have been harshly assessed by the bookies given their reasonable record against 4th grade teams, especially away from home. There is some value backing them either outright or on the handicaps as the stats suggest.
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Stoke vs Tottenham |
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Stoke’s excellent record against the best teams in the leagues has been well documented and they are again value here at odds of almost 5.00 which gives them only 20% chance of winning this game. That can’t be right given they have won 53% of games against 1st grade opposition, Spurs have lost 31% of their games against 3rd grade opposition. The standout here is on the Asian Handicaps where recent records show Stoke have taken 70% of available points with a 0.75 goals start.
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West Ham vs Watford |
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The betting markets look to have this game priced right with no real value showing in any of the match odds, asian handicap or goal market odds.
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Liverpool vs Leicester |
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Liverpool’s first home game of the season sees them up against the champions. Leceister are still top of the league on a rolling basis and Liverpool look short here given they have won only 8 from 19 against all opposition and 9 from 18 against 1st grade opposition. That roughly equates to odds of 2.00 or 50% which is much better than the 1.60 that is offered by the betting markets.
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Swansea vs Chelsea |
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Teams priced at over 6.00 will almost always be value bets. This is game is no exception. When you look at Chelsea’s away record they have lost 38% of games against teams similar to Swansea’s ability. Swansea have won 26% of games against the best teams. Overall this equates to 31% chance of a home win versus the 16% that the betting markets are giving Swansea. Giving Swansea a goal head start has seen them win 65% of points against similar opposition.
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Sunderland vs Everton |
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Moyes against his old club and this is a fairly straightforward game to finish the weekend fixtures. The draw is the standout selection as far as value is concerned. Everton have the highest number of draws away from home in the league and both the overall stats and games against similar opposition put the draw as the most likely outcome so odds of 3.65 (27% chance) look tempting.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.