2016 Brownlow Medal Predictions and Betting Tips

2016 Brownlow Medal

This article surveys various 2016 Brownlow Medal predictions and offers betting tips. The 2016 Brownlow Medal is to be presented on the evening of Monday, the 26th of September.

The Brownlow Medal for the fairest and best player in the AFL is determined by votes cast by the officiating field umpires after each game.


Betfair interviewed Associate Professor Michael Bailey who is a bio-statistician. According to Betfair “In 2005 he completed a PhD which outlined a statistical approach to predicting sporting outcomes and with a specific chapter dedicated to the Brownlow, he is the only known person to be awarded a PhD for the prediction of the Brownlow Medal winner.”

Bailey’s predictions are:

Patrick Dangerfield – 35 votes (89% probability of winning)
Dustin Martin – 23 votes (3% probability of winning)
Dan Hannebery – 22 votes (2% probability of winning)
Joel Selwood – 22 votes (2% probability of winning)
Sam Mitchell – 20 votes (2% probability of winning)
Rory Sloane – 20 votes (0% probability of winning due to being ineligible)

Click here to see his predictions for the top players for each team and the projected team totals


The official AFL website has made the following predictions:

Patrick Dangerfield – 29 votes
Luke Parker – 25 votes
Rory Sloane – 23 votes (ineligible)
Luke Shuey – 22 votes
Dustin Martin – 22 votes
Jack Steven – 21 votes
Sam Mitchell – 20 votes

Fox Sports

Fox Sports list two ladders.

Fox Footy Prediction:
P.Dangerfield – 31
D.Martin – 24
S.Mitchell – 23
L.Parker – 22
J.Steven – 21
S.Coniglio – 21
J.Kennedy – 19

Supercoach Prediction:
P.Dangerfield – 30
M.Gawn – 30

S.Pendlebury – 28
H.Shaw – 23
R.Gray – 23
M.Bontempelli – 20


The Brownlow Prophet at Sportsbet has the following projections, based on the average of four different systems:

Patrick Dangerfield – 31.25
Luke Parker – 23.63
Dustin Martin – 23.25
Sam Mitchell – 22.13
Luke Shuey – 21.67
Jack Steven – 20.38

Betting tips

Based on the consistency of Patrick Dangerfield appearing at the top of the lists, we recommend backing Dangerfield to win the 2016 Brownlow medal at 1.22 (Betfair).

Compare the latest Brownlow Medal odds


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