The following is a selection of racing tips for Saturday, October 22, 2016. The focus is on Moonee Valley, particularly the Cox Plate, but selected races at other venues are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
Sportsbet are offering a Cox Plate – Betting without Winx and Hartnell market. They are also offering a promotional market for Winx to win by 2+ lengths at 4.00 odds.
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Best bet of the weekend
Moonee Valley Race 6: No.1 I AM A STAR
Race 1, No.8 Luiza – 3.5 star bet
Race 6: Fillies Classic
The market says it is a two-horse race and The Wolf agrees. Sezanne ran home in the best closing splits in the Flight Stakes to run third behind Global Glamour and Yankee Rose. Both have won Group Ones since. The barrier is the big concern though. She’ll need some Hugh Bowman magic from out there. That leaves I Am A Star who was only a length off Global Glamour in the Thousand Guineas. The Global Glamour line says there isn’t much between them. However, the barrier makes it an easy choice. I Am A Star to prevail.
Race 7: Crystal Mile
The United States is a genuine Group One horse. So he looks so well suited at WFA in Group Two company. It was a horrible watch for his supporters in the Feehan seven weeks ago. He was shuffled through the field before being spat out the back. It was mission impossible from there. That miss aside, he has a strong record at the Valley (6:2-1-1). He Or She will appreciate looking up and not seeing Winx and Black Heart Bart in front of him. The likes of Federal and Ulmanm are handy but at WFA look a risk.
Race 8: Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Gallante ran second to Jameka first-up in the Naturalism. He was a distant second but there is no shame in that given what she has done since. This six-year-old is part of the Lloyd Williams army heading towards the Melbourne Cup and looks right on track. If he can settle up on the outside of Authoritarian, he’ll be near impossible to chase down. Kerrin McEvoy is a brilliant judge of when to push the button on stayers. Have got this race as being on speed dominated. Authoritarian to hold onto second.
Race 9: Cox Plate, the Wolf’s Top 5
3. Happy Clapper
5. Lucia Valentina
Race 10, No.6 So Si Bon – 4 star bet
Moonee Valley Quaddie: 1 / 1,5,9 / 8 / 1,6
BACK (WIN) Miss Wahoo – 1 units at $11 or more
BACK (WIN) Brulee – 2.0 units at $7 or more
BACK (WIN) Angharad – 1 units at $7 or more
BACK (WIN) Jeanneau – 1 units at $10 or more
BACK (WIN) Ken’s Dream – 6 units at $3 or more
BACK (WIN) Lady Le Fay for 6 units at $2.50 or more
BACK (WIN) Antelucan for 4 units at $8.0 or more
BACK (WIN) I Am A Star – 6 units at $2.30 or more
BACK (WIN) Outback Rain – 1 units at $21 or more
LAY (WIN) The United States for 5 units at $5 or less
BACK (WIN) Gallante for 2 units at $3.5 or more
BACK (WIN) Second Wave for 8 units at $4.0 or more
Race 9: Cox Plate
BACK (WIN) Hartnell for 5 units at $3.2 or more
BACK (WIN) Sacred Elixir – 3 units at $6 or more
BACK (WIN) So Si Bon – 2 units at $6 or more
Race 2: value Bet of the day: No.8, Tarco
Race 9: Cox Plate, Top 4 picks:
3. Yankee Rose
4. Happy Clapper
Best Bet: R7-1 The United States
Each Way: R8-9 Second Wave
Value/Longshot: R6-7 Outback Rain
Race 1 12:10pm 1000m: 8 LUIZA from 10,12,6
Race 2 12:40pm 955m: 4 GRANE from 6,2,5
Race 3 1:15pm 1200m: 5 MODERN WONDER from 4,12,8
Race 4 1:50pm 1200m: 5 DAM READY from 2,1,3
Race 5 2:25pm 1600m: 8 KANIANA from 1,2,5
Race 6 3:00pm 1600m: 1 I AM A STAR from 3,4,7
Race 7 3:35pm 1600m: 1 THE UNITED STATES from 2,3,7
Race 8 4:10pm 2500m: 9 SECOND WAVE from 1,4,3
Race 9 5:00pm 2040m: 8 WINX from 3,4,9
Race 10 5:45pm 2040m: 2 SACRED ELIXIR from 10,11,1
Race 9: Cox Plate
1 – Winx
2 – Hartnell
3 – Vadamos
4 – Black Heart Bart
Race 9: Cox Plate
2. Yankee Rose
Hard to go past I AM A STAR after getting so close to a star filly in the Guineas. Reports are she’s thrived since so she has to go close from the good gate. LA LUNA ROSSA can bounce straight back after having no chance going forward last start. A quieter ride has her running well. SEZANNE brings outstanding form from Sydney. She’ll give away a big start but may be good enough to run over them. EXOCET can bounce back. Her win two back was that of a promising filly.
HE OR SHE will appreciate the drop back from group one level his past five starts. Drawn to get to the outside, he’ll be steaming home. STRATUM STAR is ready to find his best after a luckless run last start. With a perfect run he’ll go close. ROYAL RAPTURE just keeps on flying along and gets the run of the race and THE UNITED STATES is the query. He’s the best horse in the race and he does love this track.
GALLANTE is an outstanding horse kept fresh and he’s a pure stayer so the step up in trip is ideal. If he brings the Jameka form he’ll be tough to beat. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE is right at his top now and gets the run of the race. He has to be in the finish. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN finds a good race and don’t be surprised to see him ridden a bit more positive. GRAND MARSHAL and The Bandit next best.
The race we’ve all been waiting for all spring. Impossible to go past the superstar mare WINX. She destroyed them last year and she looks an even better horse going into this year’s race. Expect her to stay in touch from the good gate, she should win. HARTNELL is the obvious danger. He’s gone to another level this prep and he will have a start on the mare. He’ll go before the turn and be tough to get past. YANKEE ROSE is classy enough to run a big race with the feather weight and she’ll get a perfect run. VADAMOS, Hauraki and Lucia Valentina go into exotics.
Randwick Race 3, No.9 Nieta – 3.5 star bet
Randwick Race 7, No.2 Circular – 4 star bet
Randwick Quaddie: 1,2,4 / 2,3,10 / 2,3,7,11 / 3,12,13
Best Bet: Eagle Farm, Race 3, No.6, Prompt Return