Tuesday Racing Tips – Melbourne Cup Day – November 1 2016

The following is a selection of racing tips for Tuesday, November 1, 2016. The focus is on the Melbourne Cup, which is race 7 (3 PM AEDT) at Flemington. If you prefer to read pundit comments in order of horse, view our survey of runner by runner guides for the Melbourne Cup.

More tips and previews will be added as they become available.


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Best bets of the day

Flemington Race 7, No.17 Almandin (each way)
Flemington Race 9, No.9 Ruetigger (each way)

Melbourne Cup

William Hill – The Wolf:

The Wolf’s Top 5:

1. Oceanographer
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: Chad Schofield/Appleby (Godolphin)
This five-year-old is clearly loving his time in Australia. He ran a gallant third in the Geelong Cup before taking out the Luxus Stakes on Saturday in brilliant fashion. It was as good as a Cup trial you’ll ever see. He can run some monster late sectionals. He’ll be out to emulate Shocking who in 2009 won the Lexus/Cup double. Before he arrived in Melbourne he was hammered by 9L by Heartbreak City in the Ebor. Of course that counts form something but history says the imports with a run under their belt in Australia, perform much better. Also gets the services of gun lightweight rider Chad Schofield.

2. Almandin
Weight: 52kg
Jockey/Trainer: McEvoy/Hickmott
This seven-year-old has hit form at exactly the right time. Owner Lloyd Williams has won the Cup on four occasions already so he knows how to peak them on the first day in November. Almandin smashed stablemate Assign two back (who has since won himself) before putting the sword to Zanteca. That’s B Grade form but it’s the manner in which he is winning that excites The Wolf. Has never run over two miles but being by Monsun, he should have no troubles seeing out the trip. Add into the mix one of the country’s best staying jockeys Kerrin McEvoy. Has taken the scalp of Protectionist in Germany. There’s a real sense of timing about him.

3. Jameka
Weight: 54.5kg
Jockey/Trainer: Hall/Maher
This mare has had a near faultless preparation. She dominated the Caulfield Cup to run out one of the most impressive winners of the modern era. The last Melbourne Cup winner to come out of the Caulfield Cup was Delta Blues in 2006. The last four-year-old mare to win the Cup was Ethereal in 2001 with 52kg. Prior to that it was Let’s Elope way back in 1991 who carried just 51kg. That goes to show the enormity of the task ahead of Jameka with 53.5kg. Not prepared to discount her though. She is flying and despite her breeding, looks like she’ll get two miles.

4. Wicklow Brave
Weight: 56kg
Jockey/Trainer: Dettori/Mullins
Took the big scalp of Order Of St George in the Irish St Leger last start which put him right on the map as far as the Cup goes. Order Of St George has since franked the form in the Arc! He was able to dictate the race however it was a clear career peak. Not bad for an eight-year-old. Willie Mullins has had plenty of success in the Cup in the past few years with Simenon and Max Dynamite running well. The wiley trainer suggests that Wicklow is sharper then Max too. Player.

5. Big Orange
Weight: 57kg
Jockey/Trainer: Spencer/Bell
Ran fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year at $61 beaten only 2.4L by Prince Of Penzance carrying 55.5kg. He was flattered by the slow tempo and carnage towards the back of the field though. We’ve only seen him four times since but he hasn’t finished outside of the placings. Exospheric beat him pointlessly three back before he turned the tables at his next outing in the Prince Of Wales. He then won the Goodwood Cup. Will get his favoured good track and flies fresh. He is a serious animal and one of the best two milers in Europe. Don’t underestimate him.

Hartnell can’t win the Melbourne Cup. Here are the five reasons why:

  1. Hartnell doesn’t stay two miles. His Sydney Cup flop and his 15th in last year’s Melbourne Cup prove it. Forget his Royal Ascot win over 3200m. He was a three-year-old and flattered.
  2. He is a flat track bully and only performs off slow run races. This year’s Cup will be truly run. The white flag will come up by the clocktower.
  3. He has already peaked. His Cox Plate second was well below his Turnbull Stakes demolition.
  4. Hartnell is a confidence animal. That’ll have been blasted by seeing Winx 8L in front of him in the Cox Plate.
  5. He performs best when he can get his toe into the ground. Flemington will play firm as a Good 3.

The Betfair Insider:

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners 6yo Horses
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 56.5kg or less, 4 of past 5 winners 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or further in Australia
  • 4 of past 4 winners have been 5th or 6th up
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 10 or wider
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites

BACK (WIN) Almandin – 2 units at $15 or more
The lightly raced 7YO is in top form having won the Harry White Classic (Listed) and the Bart Cummings (G3) at his past two starts. On both occasions he really ran through the line, which would be very pleasing for connections heading into a Melbourne Cup. He loses Oliver but is replaced by McEvoy and is value at $18 mark.

BACK (WIN) Heartbreak City – 2 units at $15 or more
He’s won his past three races in Ireland and England. His last start victory was in the Ebor Heritage Handicap by an impressive 4L and is certainly a horse on the rise over in Europe. He’s a lightly raced 7YO and although mixing his form across the flat and hurdles he looks to arrive here in peak form. Joao Moreira has been booked to ride and looks weighted to win.

BACK (WIN) Wicklow Brave – 1 unit at $20 or more
He broke through for a much deserved Group 1 win last start in the Irish St Leger (2816m) holding off challenges from Order Of St George and Trip To Paris over the concluding stages. That’s top quality European staying form and carried 62kg on that occasion. His best form appears to be on the soft ground and if he can handle a dry track he’s one of the main dangers to Hartnell.

Other major players:

1. Big Orange (UK): Fifth in last years’ Melbourne Cup, Big Orange led at a slow tempo which was potentially detrimental to his chances as he was not able to match his rivals when the sprint went on. He’s since raced well in Dubai and has won twice (both at Group 2) level back home in the UK. He’s a more seasoned horse, in good form but hard to come into any top weight for the Melbourne Cup.

4. Bondi Beach (Ireland): Bondi Beach was sent to Australia for the 2015 Melbourne Cup as a Northern Hemisphere 3YO and had no luck in the race after racing wide and being buffeted in the straight. After a spell, Bondi Beach raced back home in Ireland taking out a Listed race by 2.8L and backed that up with a Group 3 win over 2816m by a length with an SP of $1.10. He’s raced twice since at Leopardstown (Ire) over 2414m at Group 3 level running third on both occasions. His 3YO form had him pinned as a potential star but he needs to jump sharply in rating here to win.

5. Exospheric: First seen for his new trainer (L & A Freedman) in the Caulfield Cup, he ran a pleasing third for connections. He’s yet to be tested over the 3200m with the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup being a ‘stretch’ on his previous distance form. He recorded the fifth best final section of the Caulfield Cup so prefer others at this distance.

6. Hartnell: The Cup favourite, Hartnell has taken all before him this time in. He won the Chelmsford by 7.5L hard held, the Hill Stakes just as dominantly and then put 3.3L on Jameka in the Turnbull, also under hands and heels riding to the line. He controversially skipped the Caulfield Cup (a dominate favourite) to have his third consecutive start at 2000m (give or take the additional 40m of the Cox Plate) where he finished second to the champion mare Winx. He steps up the 3200m for the third time in Australia. At his first attempt he raced too keenly in the Sydney Cup when failing at the $1.70 favourite. At his next attempt in the 2015 Melbourne Cup you could argue that he wasn’t the same horse and finished a disappointing 15th. Without doubt he is in much better form this time around but he still does race a little keen and the question will be how much that will take out of him over the 3200m. I have great respect for him but is well found.

9. Almoonqith: He closed the Caulfield Cup with the fastest final sectional indicating the step up to 3200m looks ideal this time in. He had no luck in the 2015 Cup and appears to be in better form this time around. Drawn 19, he’ll be charging from the rear but looks a good chance to fill the top 4 at good odds.

12. Jameka: A dominate 3L winner of the Caulfield Cup, Jameka was able to overcome a mid race ‘anchor drop’ where she threw her head around when the speed dropped before surging away from her rivals over the concluding stages. The step to 3200m is a question mark, but judging by the arrogance of her Caulfield Cup victory I don’t see it as a major issue. She looks a great chance should she switch off and a definite top three player as the market has suggested.

20. Oceanographer (UK): Has quickly rocketed into second favourite after a strong showing in the Geelong Cup before backing that up 10 days later in Saturday’s Lexus Stakes where reeling in the tearaway leader Tom Melbourne. He has a lovely long action which looks very suitable to the 3200m and a turn of foot. He was no match for the likes of Heartbreak City back home but appears to be flying down under. A genuine threat as the market has predicted but three runs in 13 days is a big negative for mine.

Sportsbet – Bruce Clark:

1. Jameka
2. Almandin
3. Oceanographer
4. Heartbreak City

The best value is Almandin ($13), another down in the handicaps (52kg) and another bringing in brilliant form and any horse who has won races called the Harry White and the Bart Cummings at their past two starts has a Cup at his mercy.

And best roughie – Gallante ($67) – this year’s Sydney Cup winner who was terrific alongside Jameka in the Naturalism earlier this campaign before not appreciating the ground in the Moonee Valley Cup.

Sportsbet – Runner Comments by Best Bets:

6. Hartnell
20. Oceanographer
17. Almandin
12. Jameka

The locals: HARTNELL was brilliant winning Turnbull Stks here thrashing Caulfield Cup winner JAMEKA and now meets her 1.5kg better, he wasn’t at his best around MV yet still ran second to a freak. Jameka was so strong winning Caul Cup with ALMOONQITH hitting line race-fastest last 200m. ALMANDIN is unbeaten in races 2200m+ and has no weight. The Internationals: OCEANOGRAPHER ran his last 1000m in a 56.81 winning the Lexus, phenomenal! WICKLOW BRAVE comes off a win over Order Of St George who then placed in an Arc. BIG ORANGE & BONDI BEACH ran OK here last year.

Unibet – Adam Campton:

Top 6 picks:

17 – Almandin
Came from off the pace to score a very nice win in the Bart Cummings last start at Flemington. He’s my top selection in the Cup because he has a very nice turn of foot and you need that in this race. The drop in weight is a big tick, he’ll run the distance and there’s no-one riding better than Kerrin McEvoy at the moment. Macca will settle him just off the speed and save him up for one big sprint at the business end of the race.

20 – Oceanographer
A serious stayer that has shown very good ability in both his Aussie runs. His first-up run was good but his last start effort in the Lexus was awesome. He deserves to be one of the favourites because he’s a top class horse and his trainer is a brilliant horseman. If he can handle the quick back up then he’ll be finishing in the top three.

6 – Hartnell
A deserved favourite for the race this year because his form this time in has been top class. He was smashed by Winx last start, but he didn’t really handle the Valley so his run was very good. Hartnell will be better suited back at Flemington and I like that he had a hard hit out last start. If he can run out a strong 3200m then he’ll be the one to beat but I won’t be backing him because he’s well under the odds.

12 – Jameka
Won the Caulfield Cup brilliantly last start and she has gone to a new level this time in, but she doesn’t settle in her races and that’s a concern for a horse who is trying to run 3200m. She will get every chance from barrier 3 and her trainer will have her rock hard fit on Tuesday, but I think she is unders at her current quote so I’m happy to bet around her.

8 – Wicklow Brave – best roughie
An Irish galloper who has some very good form next to his name. His win in the Irish St Leger last start was awesome and by all reports he has been thriving in quarantine. The distance is no issue for this animal and his jockey is a freak so he has to be respected in this. He must be included in all exotics.

11 – Grand Marshal
One of my favourite stayers because he always tries his best. His last start win was good and the distance is no concern so I’m expecting a big run. I’ll have something on this horse because he’s peaking at the right time and he’s great each way value.

Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:

Picks: 6. HARTNELL from 12. Jameka, 4 Bondi Beach, 20. Oceanographer

The Cup looks wide open with the influx of international raiders. There is only one Australian bred horse in the race and that is JAMEKA. The track is likely to be a good4 leading in to Tuesday but there is the possibility of showers during the course of the day.

The Cup is a tough race and I think there is a number of chances. I’m sticking with HARTNELL. He had looked unbeatable before his distant second to Winx in the Cox Plate but he was having his third run at 2000m. He looked more dour in that and looking for the extra trip. Any year where a horse runs a place in a Cox Plate it’s a good form line and he is the class. Naturally Jameka has had a great prep but couldn’t get near Hartnell when they last met. I expect a true gallop with a number of on pace runners.

OCEANOGRAPHER should be suited by a strong tempo and the trip – if he backs up from Saturday’s Lexus he has a terrific each way chance. It’s not clear cut but I will stick with the Melbourne Spring form horses.

1. BIG ORANGE: Ran well in this race last year with 2kg less. Comes here in better form than last year. Tough and looks a top four chance. On pace runner.
2. OUR IVANHOWE: Battled away ok in the Caulfield Cup. Yet to win beyond 2400m. In the wider chances.
3. CURREN MIROTIC: Japanese stayer that hasn’t won for a while. He’s good on his day but lets himself down through inconsistency. Has been placed at both starts at 3200m. Can lead or race on pace. In the mix.
4. BONDI BEACH: The only time he has missed a place in his career was in this race last year. Form since has been good. Drawn well. Looks a winning chance.
5. EXOSPHERIC: Found the line strong in the Caulfield Cup. Untried beyond 2414m. Meets (1) 2.5kg better for their last meeting. Another with a winning chance.
6. HARTNELL: Looked unbeatable before his ego was brought back to earth at Moonee Valley, but he will be a better horse at Flemington. Thrashed Jameka in their most recent meeting. Has won at 3200m. Raced a little more dour last start. A concern that he hasn’t been beyond 2050m this prep. Class horse and well weighted.
7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: Placed in this race two years ago and got knocked down last year. Back in form after a good second in the Moonee Valley Cup. Doubt he is up to winning but place is not beyond him.
8. WICKLOW BRAVE: Tough stayer that has won six times at 3200m. Form is terrific. 4th to Big Orange three starts ago. Group 1 winner last start. Drawn badly in the outside gate.
9. ALMOONQITH: Ran on well in the Caulfield Cup. That was clearly his best run this prep. Peaking at the right time. Place chance at odds.
10. GALLANTE: Good stayer but he needs a wet track. All his wins have been on soft ground and therefore might find a firm track not to his liking. Strong stayer and another on pacer.
11. GRAND MARSHAL: Got that bit of sting out of the ground which gave him that little extra at Moonee Valley. Has come good at the right time. Place claims best.
12. JAMEKA: Hard to fault her. In super form and won by a big space in the Caulfield Cup. Some query at the trip as she has not been beyond 2500m. Top chance.
13. HEARTBREAK CITY: Won two hurdle races in a row in Ireland before winning the Ebor in England. Respecting of his last start romp in a good field. In the mix.
14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD: Got shuffled back after an early check in the Caulfield Cup. Query at 3200m. Form before last start was excellent. Rough chance.
15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE: Will have to find a few lengths. Going ok but can’t have.
16. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE: Mare untried beyond 2414m. Hard to weigh up her form lines. Looks as if she will need to improve. Have many other imports ahead of her.
17. ALMANDIN: In peak form. 30 days between runs. Has got better with every run this prep. Good stayer. Each way.
18. ASSIGN: Just scraped home at Caulfield in a traditionally good lead up race. This is stronger but has hit form. Outside chance.
19. GREY LION: Battling run in the Geelong Cup and will need to find a few lengths. Can’t have.
20. OCEANOGRAPHER: In excellent form. If he backs up from Saturday looks a strong winning chance. The extra will suit. Top four chance.
21. SECRET NUMBER: Has only had one run since running second during the carnival last year. Won first-up. This has been a long range plan to be set for this. Top four chance.
22. PENTATHLON: Hard to have on Saturday’s effort.
23. QEWY: Strong staying win in the Geelong Cup. The extra trip will suit even better. Oceanographer has franked the form. Another import with a top four chance.
24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA: Can’t have.

Ladbrokes Race Comments:

Wide open race with so many queries on the internationals we haven’t seen. ALMANDIN couldn’t have had a better preparation and he’s thriving as he steps up in trip. With the light weight he’ll run a big race. HARTNELL and JAMEKA bring the traditional form lines that have stood the test of time. With good runs they’ll both be somewhere in the finish. OCEANOGRAPHER has proven the Geeleong Cup form so QEWY and GREY LION have claims and GRAND MARSHAL is a great roughie.

Betfair – The Rating Bureau:

Both Oceanographer and Almandin appeal as the clear betting value in this race. Decide how much you want to outlay on the race and then stake in the following way.

BACK (WIN) – Oceanographer – 70% of race outlay
BACK (WIN) Almandin – 30% of race outlay

Other Races

William Hill – The Wolf:

Flemington Race 1, No.1 Madeenaty (4.0 star bet)
Flemington Race 6, No.17 Sylpheed (4.5 star bet)
Flemington Race 8, No.14 Fabrizio (4.0 star bet)
Flemington Race 9, No.9 Ruetigger (2.0 star bet)
Flemington Race 10, No.2 Egyptian Symbol (3.5 star bet)

Flemington Quaddie
1,8,12,17,20 / 14 / 1,6,9,11,13,19 / 2,3

The Betfair Insider:

Flemington Race 9
BACK (WIN) Ruettiger – 2 units at $8 or more
BACK (WIN) Sir Bacchus – 2 units at $8 or more
BACK (WIN) Lord Von Costa – 0.5 unit at $30 or more

Flemington Race 10
BACK (WIN) Egyptian Symbol – 2.5 units at $4 or more
BACK (WIN) Shillelagh – 1.5 units at $8 or more
BACK (WIN) Kimberley Star – 1 unit at $15 or more

Madbookie – Dan Mielecki:


Race 1 10:40am 1000m (Ottawa Stakes Group 3):
1. MADEENATY from 8, 14, 16

Race 2 11:20pm 1700m (mares’ handicap):
11. MODEL DRAGON from 8, 6, 2

Race 3 12:00pm 2800m (BM96):
14. ALL I SURVEY from 3, 9, 11

Race 4 12:40pm 1400m (4yo & 5yo BM90):
3. DEMONSTRATE from 4, 1, 6

Race 5 1:20pm 1000m (3yo SWP):
13. MANUEL from 3, 12, 10

Race 6 2:00pm 1400m:
8. FARAWAY TOWN from 3, 6, 16

Race 8 4:00pm 1800m (Cup Day Plate)
11. TUCANCHOO from 4, 12, 14

Race 9 4:40pm 1200m:
9. RUETTIGER from 11, 14, 13

Race 10 5:15pm 1400m (Maybe Mahal Stakes):
2. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL from 3, 6, 4

Ladbrokes Race Comments:

Race 2:
Leaning to the two lightly raced mares coming through the grades. NASSAK looks very well placed getting out to the longer trip. This is a tougher race but straight into a perfect run, she will give them something to run down late. MODEL DRAGON is unbeaten and comes off a big win fresh. She’ll only improve with more ground so looks hard to hold out again. EVERY FAITH is right at her top for this, she’ll be strong through the line. METAPHORICAL, AMARELA and TIDY PROPHET all have some claims in an even race.

Race 3:
MURPHY’S DELIGHT has had the perfect preparation for this race and comes off a good run. With a perfect run around midfield he has to go close. KINEMA wasn’t far away in a hard run Geelong cup last start. With any improvement for the run he’ll be fighting out the finish. SLY ROMANCE could be a knockout at huge odds. His first two runs were good before failing last start. He’ll stay all day so can bounce. DREADED has more upside than most and SWACADELIC shown some signs of improvement last start. This grade suits.

Race 4:
Hard to go past DEMONSTRATE with the form he’s in. After chasing the flying Hellbent three back he’s cruised in his last two. With a perfect run, he’s tough to beat. SOVEREIGN NATION is right at this peak here and he too draws for a perfect run. He’ll be strong late. RAGEESE will enjoy the big track. Given time to balance up he launches late. LUCKY LIBERTY has each-way claims and VOSTOK can bounce back off a poor ride last start.

Race 5:
BIASED WITNESS ran a big race fresh and did well to get as close as he did on the line. Fitter for the run and drawn to be a bit closer, he’ll be hard to hold out. BLUE TYCOON can bounce straight back after having a few things go wrong last start. SPEEDEOR is a big betting watch. He won nicely first-up and the Weir stable only brings them to town if their up to it. FALCOOL can bounce back with blinkers going on and a more positive ride. MANUEL and AMANAAT next best.

Race 6:
SAMARA DANCER hasn’t had much chance from bad gates her past few starts after a good fresh run. Finally drawn to race much closer, she’ll run a big race. SYLPHEED was brave facing the breeze last start. With a much quieter run she’ll show the turn of foot that had her winning first-up. SWEET SHERRY will only go forward on her win last week and the extra trip looks ideal. She’ll charge home. FARAWAY TOWN and QUICK FEET both have strong claims on their Sydney form.

Race 8:
A few of the chances drawing out has made it a wide open race. TASHBEEH hasn’t been suited staying at the shorter trip his past two runs. If he has a touch of luck getting cover he can bounce back at a bit of odds here. FABRIZIO ran a huge race in the Epsom with a shocking ride. Right back to his best last start, he’s the one to run down. TUCANCHOO will take a big step off his fresh run, this trip looks ideal. PLOT THE COURSE and TARQUIN both get their chance from good gates.

Race 9:
ILLUSTRIOUS LAD is racing in career best form and he was luckless last start. If he can stay in touch he should be hard to hold out. RAVI closed hard behind a quality mare last start. She’s flying and will only be reaching her peak. RUETTIGER will only improve off a bit of a luckless fresh run. He’ll be steaming home late and SECRET AGENDA will bounce back, especially if we get any rain. FLIPPANT, SIR BACCHUS LORD VON COSTA and many more all have claims.

Race 10:
They don’t come much deeper to finish the long day. SHILLELAGH was a big winner two back before being flattened last start. Suited onto the big track, she’ll go back and be launching late. SILENT SEDITION gets the perfect run just off the pace. She’ll run it out strong and be hard to beat. ARTISTRY will only improve off her big fresh run and the stable mate DENPURR could be the big value runner, she’s flying in easier races. There’s a stack more chances including SLIGHTLY SWEET, ROCKOLICIOUS and KIMBERLEY STAR.

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