The following is a selection of racing tips for Saturday, November 5, 2016. The focus is on Stakes Day at Flemington but selected races at other venues are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets of the weekend
Race 2: No.5 Hipparchus
Race 3: No.1 Francis Of Assisi
R1 Maribyrnong Plate G3 1000m
BACK (WIN) Tarima – 1 unit at $8 or more
BACK (WIN) Resin – 2 units at $6 or more
R3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes G3 2600m
BACK (WIN) Francis Of Assisi – 3 units at $3 or more
BACK (WIN) Vengeur Masque – 2 units at $3 or more
R4 Hilton Stakes Listed 1400m
BACK (WIN) Verstappen – 2 units at $6 or more
BACK (WIN) Valliano – 1 unit at $15 or more
BACK (WIN) Inside Agent – 2 units at $13 or more
R6 Matriarch Stakes G2 2000m
BACK (WIN) Denmagic – 5 units at $4 or more
BACK (WIN) Lady Le Fay – 2 units at $5+ or more
R7 Emirates Stakes Stakes G1 2000m
LAY (WIN) Scottish – 10 units at $6 or less
R8 Darley Classic G1 1200m
BACK (WIN) Malaguerra – 2 units at $8 or more
BACK (WIN) Spieth – 2 units at $9 or more
Best bet: Azazel (Melbourne, Race 1, No.1)
Race 7 – Emirates Stakes tips:
1 – Scottish
2 – Good Standing
3 – Vadamos
4 – The United States
It will take a smart first starter to beat a few we’ve seen. AZAZEL was heavily backed on debut and he was a strong winner when doing a bit wrong. If he’s improved for the experience he’ll be hard to hold out. WAIT FOR NO ONE did everything right on debut. He’ll be right on pace and he’ll run it out strong. INSTITUTION was hard held in a recent jump out after showing good speed. Watch for any betting leads from this stable. FILL FILL, KOBAYASHI and ASPECT all have claims but betting looks the best guide to the first starters.
CHARLEVOIX had no chance first-up over the short trip in a leader dominated race. He’s a promising stayer so should have no trouble straight out to this trip, he’ll be steaming home. KILMACURRAGH is another highly promising stayer. If he has any luck going forward from the gate he’ll be hard to get past. The Waller pair HIPPARCHUS and ENCOSTA LINE both bring similar form lines and they both look to be peaking for this. They’ll both roll forward and they’ll run it out strong. CURRAGH next best and others have claims.
FRANCIS OF ASSISI was a dominant winner in the Bendigo Cup and he should only go forward for the run. He’ll be right on the pace and he’ll make them stay. DE LITTLE ENGINE has been hitting the line all prep. If he can stay in touch with a bit of sped on up front he’ll be storming home. TOM MELBOURNE is racing at his peak. If they did leave him alone he’d take some catching. SECOND BULLET and VENGEUR MASQUE next best.
Giving the maiden runner CRAFTED a chance to break through. He hit the line hard in a strong race last start and he’s bred to be a much better horse on the dryer track. From the good gate, he’ll run a huge race. NICCOLANCE brings outstanding Sydney form lines. If he has a touch of luck from the wide gate he’s a big danger. INSIDE AGENT will enjoy getting back onto a big track. If he gets out from the inside draw he’ll charge home. VERSTAPPEN, SOUCHEZ, TESSERA and BENZ are all good enough but need luck from bad gates.
Tricky affair with many chances. LUCKY PADDY should be ready to find his best now off two runs back. If he has an ounce of luck slotting in he’ll be strong to the line. OBSERVATIONAL is the class runner. If he can stay in touch he will steam at them late. MABEEL is fitter for a solid run first-up. If he finds his best form from NZ he’ll run a big race. BOOM TIME did enough fresh and the step to the mile id ideal.
LADY LE FAY wasn’t given much of a chance last start staying on the rails and she was already looking for the longer trip. With a soft run from the good gate she’ll go close. REAL LOVE is the query runner. She’s well in at her best but has had plenty of tough racing. If she’s freshened up on the beach for the week she’ll run a big race. MANAGERESS has been set for this all prep. She’ll be steaming home. Many more chances including ALASKAN ROSE.
Looks a super betting race. SCOTTISH was a huge run in the Caulfield Cup working for the first half of the race and he fought on strong. Fresh back to this trip, he’ll make them run it out strong. VADAMOS did too much wrong in the Cox Plate and still kept finding. If he settles better on pace he’ll take some catching. THE UNITED STATES backs up for the third week straight but if he arrives here at his best he’ll be tough to hold out. GOOD STANDING the best of the three year olds and HAURAKI next best.
THE QUARTERBACK has had a perfect preparation for this and he does his best racing here up the straight. He’ll stay in touch and be super tough to hold out. LANKAN RUPEE will take big steps off his fresh run and he’s much better weighted here. He’ll box seat and run it out strong. OUR BOY MALACHI only has to handle the straight to be right in the finish. FELL SWOOP, MALAGUERRA and SPIETH next best.
Deep betting race to finish the day. DEMONSTRATE only has to come through his good win on Tuesday to be super tough to beat again, he’s flying. REDKIRK WARRIOR isn’t a sprinter so he did a big job first-up. With a perfect run, just off pace he’s a big danger. ULMANN and AKAVOROUN will both run their usual honest race so both can win. LUCKY LIBERTY and GALAXY RAIDER aren’t out of it.
Race 1: 15. Resin $6.50
Race 2: 5. Hipparchus $4 (4 star bet)
Race 3: 1. Francis Of Assisi $3.80
Race 4: 4. Niccolance $4
Race 5: 9. Carlo Bugatti $8
Race 6: 16. Happy Hannah $13 (1 star bet)
Race 7: 5. Vadamos $4.60
Race 8: 7. Malaguerra $8.50
Race 9: 3. Ulmann $5.50 (3.5 star bet)
Quaddie: 1,8,10,15,16 / 3,5,7 / 1,3,7,10 / 3,7,8.
BEST EACH-WAYS: Race 3 #1 FRANCIS OF ASSISI / Race 9 #7 REDKIRK WARRIOR
BEST VALUE: Race 5 #11 LAST BULLET
Race 1 12:15pm 1000m (Maribyrnong Plate Group 3)
7. FILL FILL from 1, 2, 15
Race 2 12:50pm 2000m (BM90)
5. HIPPARCHUS from 13, 11, 4
Race 3 1:30pm 2600m (Queen Elizabeth Stakes Group 2)
1. FRANCIS OF ASSISI from 3, 7, 5
Race 4 2:10pm 1400m (Hilton Stakes)
9. VERSTAPPEN from 4, 1, 2
Race 5 2:50pm 1600m (4yo+ BM90)
11. LAST BULLET from 12, 13, 1
Race 6 3:30pm 2000m (Matriarch Stakes Group 2)
16. HAPPY HANNAH from 15, 12, 10
Race 7 4:15pm 2000 (Emirates Stakes)
3. THE UNITED STATES from 7, 8, 9
Race 8 5:00pm 1200m (Darley Classic)
3. THE QUARTERBACK from 5, 11, 6
Race 9 5:45pm 1400m (4yo+ handicap)
7. REDKIRK WARRIOR from 6, 8, 3
R8: The Darley Classic – 1200m Open G1 WFA
BACK (WIN) – Our Boy Malachi – 1.5% of the total bank
Below are some of the biggest bets Palmerbet has received for Saturday:
Race 3: No 1. Francis of Assisi – $8,000 @ $3.60
Race 4: No 4. Niccolance – $2,500 @ $4.20
Race 7: No 8. Endless Drama – $1,500 e/w @ $13.00
Race 8: No 3. The Quarterback – $5,000 @ $6.00
Race 8: No 7. Malaguerra – $1,000 e/w @ $11
2: The United States
3: Endless Drama
1: The Quarterback
2: Lankan Rupee
Ascot R6 Lee Steere Stakes, 1400m GP2 3YO+ WFA $252,000
BACK (WIN) Disposition at $3.75+ (1 unit)
BACK (WIN) Wink With A Nod at $12+ (0.3 unit)
Value bet: Cliff (Sydney, Race 4, No.9)
Lay: Casino Wizard (Adelaide, Race 5, No.1)
Canterbury Race 2, No.1 Chaussure (4 star bet)
Canterbury Race 7, No.4 Religify (4.5 star bet)
Canterbury Quaddie: 1,5 / 4 / 2,6,8,11 / 5,6,12.