The following is a selection of racing tips for Saturday, November 12, 2016. The focus is on Sandown but selected races at other venues are also covered.
More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Best bets of the weekend
Sandown Race 6, No.1 Morton’s Fork
Sandown
R2 Sandown Stakes G3 1500m
BACK (WIN) Stratum Star for 3 units at $5 or more
R6 Sandown Guineas G2 1600m 3YO SW
BACK (WIN) Morton’s Fork for 8 units at $2 or more
R7 Zipping Classic G2 2400m WFA
LAY (WIN) Who Shot Thebarman for 10 units at $4 or less
R8 Kevin Heffernan Stakes G3 1300m WFA
BACK (WIN) Illustrious Lad for 5 units at $4 or more
BACK (WIN) Santa Ana Lane for 2 units at $10 or more
R9 Eclipse Stakes G3 1800m
BACK (WIN) Tuchanchoo for 3 units at $6 or more
BACK (WIN) Alaskan Rose for 1 units at $10 or more
R10 Summoned Stakes G3 4yo+ Mares 1500m
BACK (WIN) Silent Sedition for 3 units at $5 or more
Race 2, No.4 Redkirk Warrior (3.5 star bet)
Race 5, No.2 Hear The Chant (1.5 star bet)
Race 6, No.1 Morton’s Fork (4.5 star bet)
Sandown Quaddie: 1,8 / 1,2,4,11 / 8,10,11,13 / 2,4,9,12
Race 3 – Sandown Cup
Chips in the UK Godolphin juggernaut. The Wolf jumped on the bandwagon a while back and isn’t getting off now. Qewy was so brave in winning the Geelong Cup before backing that up with a fourth in the Melbourne Cup. Kerrin McEvoy has clicked with with the blue silks all carnival and legs aback aboard. He gives away 4.5kg to the rest of the field who are in on the minimum but he had panels on these class-wise. If he holds his form, he wins. De Little Engine would run on at the end of a Grand Annual. The fact he is second favourite says it all.
Race 7 – Zipping Classic
Who Shot Thebarman is shooting to become the first horse since the mighty Zipping (who now claims naming rights on the race!) to win back-to-back Classics. He’s hit form at exactly the right time so must be respected but The Wolf is siding with the youngster in So Si Bon. He has a very similar profile to Count Ricardo who finished third in the Derby before taking out this race. As we’ve seen all spring, the three-year-olds, with their massive weight advantage, are just so hard to beat when they line up against the older horses.
Race 8 – Kevin Heffernan Stakes
Illustrious Lad has to transfer his form to weight-for-age company but he is in such a purple patch at the minute he makes great appeal. He was impeded by a riderless horse two back when he should’ve finished much closer to Keen Array before producing a dominant display down the straight taking the scalps of Counterattack, Southern Legend and turning the tables on Keen Array. Keep an eye on the market for Lucky Hussler. Hasn’t fired a shot this spring but if he’s ready, he could simply blow this lot away.
Race 7 – Zipping Classic tips:
1. Almoonqith
2. Who Shot TheBarman
3. Beautiful Romance
4. Big Orange
Race 6 – Sandown Guineas
Best bet
Morton’s Fork
Jennifer Lynn
Faraway Town
Value
Ruthven
Race 7 – Zipping Classic
Best bet
Who Shot Thebarman
Almoonqith
Big Orange
Value
Secret Number
Race 1
Betting is always the best guide with so many unraced. The Laing stable holds a strong hand. HERRERA is a lovely big filly and she charged through the line under no pressure in her trial. She’ll run a big race. EXPLICITLY trialled nicely under a tight hold since his debut run. He’s a big improver. The McKevoy pair VINLAND and MIKUNI both have to be included and you always respect the unraced one from this stable. Many more chances in a wide open race.
Race 2
REDKIRK WARRIOR finds a perfect race off his big first start in Australia. He was Derby favourite in Hong Kong so the step to this trip is ideal. Straight into a perfect run, he’ll be tough to hold out. The betting will sort out the two Weir runners. ROYAL RAPTURE has to bounce back off his last run at the end of a long prep and STRATUM STAR needs to rise a level on his form this prep. Eithers best is good enough. SOVEREIGN NATION will enjoy the light weight and SLIGHTLY SWEET isn’t hopeless.
Race 3
Very hard to go past QEWY despite giving everything else weight. He brings the A Grade off a good Melbourne Cup run. He should be too good for these. SWACADELIC got somewhere back near his best last start when possibly unlucky not to win. A repeat of that gives him some claims. MURPHY’S DELIGHT can still improve off his last start when peaking on his run late. He’s a winner at the trips so has a chance. DE LITTLE ENGINE and FOUR CARAT next best for exotics.
Race 4
Going for a bit of value with HUSSON EAGLE. He’s a very good horse fresh and had no luck first-up last time in. With the strong speed on up front he will be launching at them late. O’MALLEY is a big danger. He cruised in last start and he’s even better suited onto the big track. Vezelay could be the best of the on pacers. Forget her last run, she’s a big improver around a bend. SWINGING ARMS is a knockout, he fly’s fresh and BROCKHOFF has some claims.
Race 5
Giving the maiden PETITION a chance to break through in stakes grade. The form out of her last run has already been proven and she’ll only improve for the run. PROMPT RESPONSE comes off a huge run. Drawn to do no work this time, she’ll give a big kick and be hard to catch. ANGHARAD will enjoy getting back onto a bigger track. If she can get cover she’ll be strong late. ANOTHER BULLSEYE draws for a soft run and her form reads strong enough for this. Many more chances in a deep race.
Race 6
MORTON’S FORK was only run down by a highly promising colt last start and he was luckless prior to that. This is an easier race so he has to go close. JENNIFER LYNN keeps on taking a big step each run and she’ll only improve again out to the mile, she’s a big danger. FARAWAY TOWN is also suited out to the mile and RUTHVEN has enough upside to make the sharp rise in grade from the good gate.
Race 7
ALMOONQITH comes off a good run in the Cup. He was with the quinella when out sprinted straightening but did keep on strong to the line. Drawn to stay in touch from the good gate, he’ll be tough to beat. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE was good from too far back in the Cup. If she can be closer from the godo gate she can run over the top of them. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN backed up and won this race last year, no reason he can’t do it again. SO SI BON can fill a place with the pull in the weights.
Race 8
The class runners at the top do look well placed at WFA. LUCKY HUSSLER should be ready to bring his best here after two solid runs in top grade. Suited on the dry track and up the long straight, he should be tough to hold out. UNDER THE LOUVRE doesn’t win out of turn but this grade does suit. Back off the speed he’ll be launching late. SUPER CASH is flying in mares grade and Sheidel form will stack up in this. ILLUSTRIOUS LAD next best with a touch of luck going forward from the gate.
Race 9
Deep betting race with luck in running the key. ALASKAN ROSE has been close up all prep and she was luckless at a key point last week. If she gets cover and clear at the right time she’ll run a huge race. COOL CHAP is ready to peak and his last two have both been good. Straight into the box seat he’ll be hard to get past. PUCCINI could be the knockout. He’s going well for the new stable and his best form is clearly good enough for this. TUCANCHOO would have been near top pick from a better gate but he’s not out of it with a good ride.
Race 10
SILENT SEDITION has had the perfect prep for this race right up until the barrier draw. If she can get into the three wide line with cover she will take some beating. SHILLELAGH is racing in peak form. She’ll be back near last but has the finish to run over the top of these. KIMBERLEY STAR drops straight into the run of the race. She’ll be the one to run down in the straight. METAPHORICAL goes in any exotics.
There has been rain forecast for Friday evening and Saturday so the Sandown track may end up with plenty of give in it.
BEST BET: Race 3 #1 QEWY
BEST EACH-WAY: Race 4 #8 JUNGLE EDGE / Race 5 #5 PROMPT RESPONSE
BEST VALUE: Race 10 #5 KIMBERLEY STAR
Race 1 12:25pm 1000m (Merson Cooper Stakes)
7. KEDLESTON from 4, 1, 6
Race 2 1:00pm 1500m (Sandown Stakes Group 2)
4. REDKIRK WARRIOR from 1, 5, 2
Race 3 1:35pm 3200m (Sandown Cup Listed)
1. QEWY from 2, 5, 3
Race 4 2:10pm 1000m (Doveton Stakes Listed)
8. JUNGLE EDGE from 6, 3, 5
Race 5 2:45pm 1400m (Twilight Glow Stakes Listed)
5. PROMPT RESPONSE from 14, 10, 7
Race 6 3:25pm 1600m (Sandown Guineas Group 2)
1. MORTON’S FORK from 8, 9, 7
Race 7 4:00pm 2400m (Zipping Classic Group 2)
2. BIG ORANGE from 7, 1, 8
Race 8 4:40pm 1300m (Heffernan Stakes Group 3)
2. UNDER THE LOUVRE from 4, 7, 1
Race 9 5:20pm 1800m (Eclipse Stakes Group 3)
8. TUCANCHOO from 13, 4, 1
Race 10 5:55pm 1500m (Summoned Stakes Group 3)
12. SHILLELAGH from 9, 5, 2
Below are some of the biggest bets Palmerbet has received for Saturday:
Rosehill Race 2 No 6. MANDEE $4,000 @ $3.50
Sandown Race 2 No 4. REDKIRK WARRIOR $3,000 @ $2.70
Sandown Race 3 No 1. QEWY $5,000 @ $2.15
Sandown Race 3 No 1. QEWY $7,500 @ $2.10
Sandown Race 6 No 1. MORTON’S FORK $6,000 @ $2.10
Other Venues
Rosehill Race 5, No.1 That’s A Good Idea (3.5 star bet)
Rosehill Quaddie: 3,4,5,6,8 / 2,4,5 / 1,5,7 / 2,6,8,10
Best Bet: Adelaide, Race 2, No.1 Tidy Prophet
Value Bet: Brisbane, Race 3, No.8 I’m A Rippa
Lay: Sydney, Race 9, No.8 Nieta
There is every chance the Rosehill track will start off firm but could deteriorate during the day if the forecasters are correct.
BEST EACH-WAYS: Rosehill Race 1 #6 THE MISSION / Rosehill Race 3 #4 PURSUIT OF HONOUR
BEST VALUE: Rosehill Race 4 #4 NOBLE DESCENT
Rosehill Race 1 12:40pm 1100m
6. THE MISSION from 7, 4, 8
Rosehill Race 2 1:20pm 1300m (BM69)
2. CADOGAN from 6, 3, 4
Rosehill Race 3 1:55pm 2400m (BM81)
4. PURSUIT OF HONOUR from 3, 2, 1
Rosehill Race 4 2:30pm 1400m (Highway Handicap Class 3)
4. NOBLE DESCENT from 8, 5, 1
Rosehill Race 5 3:05pm 1200m
5. MEURSAULT from 1, 3, 6
Rosehill Race 6 3:45pm 1200m (BM84)
6. PAINTED FIRETAIL from 2, 3, 5
Rosehill Race 7 4:20pm 1500m (BM85)
6. WINE’N’DINE from 4, 2, 8
Rosehill Race 8 5:00pm 1300m (BM84)
9. ASINARA from 7, 5, 1
Rosehill Race 9 5:40pm 1100m (BM78)
2. RAPHAELS CAT from 6, 8, 3