AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for Round 11 of the 2017 AFL season.

View and compare bookmaker odds for this round
View the AFL form guide

Thursday, June 1


Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

7:50PM AEST, Adelaide Oval
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Hawthorn


Last Thursday night, Port Adelaide were incredibly unfortunate to go down to the Cats in a contest that was close the whole night. In the end, some magic from Patrick Dangerfield put the Cats two points in front with a minute left, and despite having a couple of last minute chances, the Power couldn’t quite manage a win. They’ll be immensely disappointed with the wasted opportunity and will be looking to make amends this Thursday night when they host the Hawks at the Adelaide Oval. 

Hawthorn are coming in fresh off a six point win over the Swans, and what a win it was; the Hawks were missing quite a few important players and the Swans had been in really good form. They aren’t set to gain any of their injured stars back for at least another few weeks, so they’ll need to be just as good, if not better, to topple Port this week.  

Port are travelling very, very nicely at the moment and I can’t see them losing too many games at home the way they’re playing. The Hawks are still a formidable opponent on their day, as witnessed on Friday night, but I think their outs might catch up with them on Thursday. Port move the ball at speed, and the Hawks can be susceptible to that type of game style. I reckon the Power will take advantage of that and notch up a solid win.

Betting tip: Port Adelaide (-32.5) @ $1.94 (Marathon Bet)

Friday, June 2


Geelong v Adelaide

7:50PM AEST, Simonds Stadium
View a detailed form guide for Geelong v Adelaide


After knocking off one Adelaide based team at Simonds Stadium last weekend, the Cats have the chance to make it two from two when they take on the Crows on Friday night. Port are tracking along very nicely at the moment, but you’d still have to say the Crows are the stronger of the South Australian clubs, and if Port got within two points of the Cats, you have to think the Crows will go close as well. Comparisons like that don’t always work out that well in reality, but in this case I think it’s a fair case to make. The Crows match up well on the Cats and shouldn’t have any problems playing the narrower Simonds Stadium with their attacking rebounding defenders and their fast-paced style of footy.

The Crows are almost certain to put some serious work into Patrick Dangerfield and perhaps Joel Selwood as well; if they can subdue either of them it will do wonders for their chances. The Cats have played some great footy these past two weeks but I think the Crows might have too much firepower up forward for them to contain. It will be another tight contest, but I’m backing the Crows.

Betting tip: Adelaide to win @ $1.77 (Bet365)

Saturday, June 3


Gold Coast v West Coast

1:45PM AEST, Metricon Stadium
View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v West Coast


The big news out of last Sunday’s clash between West Coast and GWS was the calf injury to Eagles’ star Josh Kennedy, and while he’s a huge loss for them, the Eagles still had to find a way to win that game. They were playing at home against a Giants team that was without 10 of it’s best 22 players. Other good teams manage to find ways to win despite dealing with adversity, but it seems like the Eagles are unable to win when things are a little tougher and not necessarily going their way. You can absolutely write them off as premiership contenders, they’re just not good enough.

This week they travel to the Gold Coast to take on the Suns at Metricon. The Suns played a great first half of footy against the Demons in Alice Springs and then forgot to turn up after half time. If they can manage to put in a four quarter performance this week they are every chance of beating the Eagles, who we know don’t like travelling. We’ll soon find out how they cope without their focal point up forward, but I can’t imagine they will look anywhere near as dangerous when going inside 50. I reckon we might be in for an upset in this one, but it should be close either way.

Betting tip: Gold Coast to win @ $2.18 (UniBet)


GWS v Essendon

4:35PM AEST, Spotless Stadium
View a detailed form guide for GWS v Essendon


Despite a gigantic injury list that would ruin most other clubs, the Giants just keep getting the job done. They didn’t have their best team on the park, they didn’t play their best footy, but they were still good enough to get over the line. After two tight contests they’ll be hoping for an easier win against the Bombers this week, and their cause will be helped by the return of the hard-running Tom Scully.

Essendon were disappointing in the Dreamtime game on Saturday night, going down to the Tigers by 15-points. It wasn’t a terrible performance, but expectations were high after playing some outstanding footy in their previous two games, and they were nowhere near that level against the Tigers.

They’ll need to be back at their best to have any chance against the Giants this week. GWS have been hard to beat at the best of times this season, but when they’re at home and are able to bolster their side with some more than handy inclusions it makes things even tougher. I’m not sure the Bombers are quite capable of this sort of level just yet, especially without the experience of James Kelly in the team; the Giants should get the job done by at least five goals.

Betting tip: GWS (-31.5) @ $1.95 (Marathon Bet)


North Melbourne v Richmond

7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Richmond


The Tigers halted a three game losing streak in style in a huge Saturday night contest at the MCG, enjoying a 15-point victory over arch rival Essendon. It was really important for the Tigers to stop the decline and get the win, not just for the four points they gained but also for their confidence and collective mental state. Beating the in-form Bombers would have reinforced their belief from earlier in the season and they should be heading into this clash very confident in their ability to beat the Kangaroos, who have not been in bad form themselves.

The Roos were too strong for Carlton in a topsy-turvy battle at Etihad Stadium on Sunday. The Roos got out to a huge lead before the Blues clawed back and hit the front early in the last quarter. The Kangaroos were then able to regroup and ran all over Carlton in the last 20 minutes. It showed a fair bit of character to do that after losing so many close games earlier in the season. Their opponent this week is no stranger to losing a close contest either, so let’s just hope there’s more than a kick or two in it with a few minutes left otherwise who knows what’ll happen.

The Tigers have been the better side so far this year so you’ve got to think they’ll be too good for the Roos. It won’t be an easy win by any stretch of the imagination; I’d say a four or five goal margin sounds about right.

Betting tip: Richmond (-9.5) @ $2.20 (UniBet)

Sunday, June 4


Fremantle v Collingwood

4:40PM AEST, Domain Stadium
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Collingwood


The first of the bye rounds closes with Fremantle hosting Collingwood at Domain Stadium. The Pies are starting to feel pretty good about themselves after notching up consecutive wins, while the Dockers have just received a harsh reality check, being dealt a 100-point thumping by the Adelaide Crows on Saturday night.

Fremantle were very poor on the weekend but they’ve shown that they aren’t that bad of a side this year, and are still very difficult to beat in Perth. The Pies will have their work cut out for them but if they bring their best footy they are a big shot of matching it with the Dockers over there. The big inclusion for Fremantle is the return of big man Aaron Sandilands, which should immediately help bolster their clearance work. I’m a little bit torn on the result of this one as I genuinely feel it could go either way, but as both teams are defensively minded I’d say that regardless of who wins it’s going to be a fairly low scoring game, so I’m just going to go with the total points being less than 181.

Betting tip: Total Match Points Under 180.50 @ $1.59 (Marathon Bet)


Best Bets of the Round

Richmond (-9.5) @ $2.20 (UniBet)


Season Tally

All Bets:        -11.11 units

Best Bets:     -0.02 units

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