English Premier League Round 33 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 33 of the 2017/18 English Premier League.

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Everton vs. Liverpool


Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.90 (bet365, TopBetta)

Everton are ranked 18th in the interactive EPL form guide for fixtures against strong opponents. They’ve lost their last 5 straight against the top teams and have gone 0-1-5 in their last 6 at home against them. Four of those five home defeats were by more than a goal. Having Gylfi Sigurdsson out doesn’t help matters. Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 13-2-2 as the away favourite. Liverpool have only lost 1 of their last 15 clashes against Everton and they come into this clash full of confidence after beating Man City 3-0 in the Champions League mid-week.

Back Liverpool +0.0 (draw no bet) in the Asian handicap at 1.43 (Betfair)
Back Liverpool +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian handicap at 1.28 (bet365)

Four of the last 7 fixtures between the two at Goodison Park ended in a stalemate, so the draw no bet and Asian handicap markets might appeal more to those who are more conservative.

Brighton vs. Huddersfield


Back Brighton +0.0 (draw no bet) in the Asian handicap at 1.36 (Betfair)
Back Brighton +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian handicap at 1.23 (Betfair)

Brighton have gone 4-4-1 as the home favourite this season while Huddersfield have gone 3-2-11 away from home.

Back Brighton to win to nil at 2.78 (Mad Bookie)

All 11 of Huddersfield’s away defeats this season have been to nil. Huddersfield haven’t found the back of the net in their last 4 games.

Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace


Back the draw at 3.50 (Betfair)

Six points separate the two in the standings but with Crystal Palace getting key players back from injury recently I expect them to be as competitive as Bournemouth. Five of Bournemouth’s last 11 fixtures resulted in a draw, including 3 of the last 6 against below average opponents. Crystal Palace have also drawn 3 of their last 6 fixtures against below average opponents and 3 of the previous 5 meetings between themselves and Bournemouth resulted in a draw.

Leicester City vs. Newcastle


Back Leicester City +0.0 (draw no bet) in the Asian handicap at 1.45 (Betfair)
Back Leicester City +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian handicap at 1.28 (bet365)

Leicester City have won their last 4 straight against Newcastle and are unbeaten in their last 4 games. After a patch of mediocre form they have picked up wins away from home against West Brom and Brighton in recent weeks. Leicester have only lost once as the home favourite (6-5-1 record) over the last 12 months. Newcastle come into this fixture on the back of consecutive home wins, but they’ve been much less productive away from home this season, where they have a 3-4-8 record.

Stoke City vs. Totenham


Back Tottenham in the head-to-head at 1.33 (William Hill)
Back Tottenham -1.5 in the Asian handicap at 1.91 (Mad Bookie)

Stoke City haven’t caused any of the top clubs any problems away from home this season, losing 7-2 to Man City, 5-1 to Tottenham, 5-0 to Chelsea and 3-0 to Man Utd and 3-0 to Arsenal. Their last fixtures against Tottenham resulted in three 4-0 scorelines and one 5-1 scoreline. Stoke enter this fixture on an 8-game winless run and have lost their last 3 straight, while Tottenham are on a 5-game winning streak with their last three wins all coming by 2+ goal margins.

West Brom vs. Swansea


Back the draw at 3.20 (TopBetta, Palmerbet)
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.61 (Palmerbet)

Because it happens so often, I expect West Brom to pick up in form now that they’ve sacked Alan Pardew. I don’t expect it will be enough to defeat Swansea, though. West Brom have drawn 6 of 10 fixtures over the last 12 months as the home favourite. Swansea are a poor road team, with a 3-6-11 away record over the last 12 months, so I don’t see them beating West Brom either. I’ll opt for a low scoring draw. If you had placed $1 on under 2.5 goals in each of Swansea’s away fixtures over the last 12 months you would be up $6.96.

Manchester City vs. Manchester United


Back Manchester City +0.0 (draw no bet) in the Asian handicap at 1.45 (Betfair)
Back Manchester City +0.5 (half ball) in the Asian handicap at 1.29 (bet365)

This is a huge derby fixture because Manchester City can secure the EPL title if they win. José Mourinho and Manchester United will look to play the spoilers so I expect them to be set up for the draw. This is something United are good at as they’ve avoided defeat in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures when installed as the underdog. City boast a 18-2-0 record at home over the last 12 months and will be keen to make amends for their Champions League defeat to Liverpool mid-week, so United will have their work cut out for them. I expect either a City win or a draw.

Arsenal vs. Southampton


Back Arsenal in the head-to-head at 1.55 (William Hill)

Arsenal will be playing quick fixtures in succession after playing CSKA Moscow at home on Thursday night, but they do get some reprieve with this fixture scheduled for Sunday, not Saturday. Arsenal boast a 16-0-1 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months while Southampton have gone 0-3-6 as the away underdog. Arsenal have gone 4-1-0 in their last 5 at home against Southampton and with the visitors suffering consecutive 3-0 away defeats at the hands of Newcastle and West Ham, I expect Arsenal will win this comfortably.

Back Arsenal -1.5 in the Asian handicap at 2.42 (Mad Bookie)
Back Arsenal to win to nil at 2.80 (Unibet)

Out of Arsenal’s 16 home wins over the last 12 months, 12 were by 2+ goals and 11 were to nil. Southampton’s last 3 defeats were all to nil and all by 2+ goals. Southampton have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 fixtures.

Chelsea vs. West Ham


Back Chelsea in the head-to-head at 1.30 (Betfair)

I don’t see West Ham causing an upset here. Their last 3 away fixtures have seen them lose 3-1 to Brighton, 4-1 to Liverpool and 4-1 to Swansea. They do come into this fixture on the back of a home win, but the last time that happened they were trounced the following week. Chelsea are undefeated against West Ham in their last 6 home fixtures and they boast a 14-2-3 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

Back Chelsea -1.5in the Asian handicap at 1.77 (Mad Bookie)

Out of West Ham’s 9 away defeats over the last 12 months, 7 were by 2+ goals. Three of Chelsea’s last 4 wins at home against West Ham have been by more than a goal.


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