The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Group D fixture between Iceland and Croatia. The game kicks off on the 27th of June at 4:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS Viceland.
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Iceland
- FIFA World Rank: 22
- Elo Rating: 24
- Qualifying: Won Group I with a 7-1-2 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Heimir Hallgrímsson
- Goalkeepers: Hannes Halldorsson (Randers), Runar Runarsson (Nordsjaelland), Frederik Schram (Roskilde)
- Defenders: Kari Arnason (Aberdeen), Holmar Eyjolfsson (Levski Sofia), Rurik Gislason (Sandhausen), Sverrir Ingason (Rostov), Hordur Magnusson (Bristol City), Birkir Saevarsson (Valur), Ragnar Sigurdsson (Rostov), Ari Skulason (Lokeren)
- Midfielders: Birkir Bjarnason (Aston Villa), Samuel Fridjonsson (Valerenga), Johann Gudmundsson (Burnley), Aron Gunnarsson (Cardiff City), Emil Hallfredsson (Udinese), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton), Olafur Skulason (Karabukspor), Arnor Traustason (Malmo)
- Forwards: Jon Bodvarsson (Reading), Alfred Finnbogason (Augsburg), Albert Gudmundsson (PSV), Bjorn Sigurdarson (Rostov)
Recent results:
- Nigeria 2 – 0 Iceland
22/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Argentina 1 – 1 Iceland
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Iceland 2 – 2 Ghana
07/06/2018
Friendly, played in Iceland - Iceland 2 – 3 Norway
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Iceland - Peru 3 – 1 Iceland
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Mexico 3 – 0 Iceland
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Indonesia 1 – 4 Iceland
14/01/2018
Friendly, played in Indonesia - Indonesia 0 – 6 Iceland
11/01/2018
Friendly, played in Indonesia - Qatar 1 – 1 Iceland
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Qatar - Iceland 1 – 2 Czech Republic
08/11/2017
Friendly, played in Qatar - Iceland 2 – 0 Kosovo
09/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Iceland - Turkey 0 – 3 Iceland
06/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Turkey
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 24-10-19
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 52-1
- O/U 1.5 record: 44-9
- O/U 2.5 record: 29-24
- O/U 3.5 record: 15-38
- O/U 4.5 record: 9-44
- O/U 5.5 record: 3-50
- Wins
- Total wins: 24
- Won by 1 goal: 11
- Won by 2 goals: 6
- Won by 3 goals: 5
- Won by 4 goals: 1
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 16
- Losses
- Total losses: 19
- Lost by 1 goal: 11
- Lost by 2 goals: 6
- Lost by 3 goals: 2
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 7
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 53
- Clean Sheets: 17
- Held Scoreless: 8
- Both Teams Scored: 29
Croatia
- FIFA World Rank: 20
- Elo Rating: 17
- Qualifying: Runners up in Group I with a 6-2-2 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification. Defeated Greece 4-1 on aggregate in the UEFA Second Round playoffs.
Squad:
- Coach: Zlatko Dalić
- Goalkeepers: Danijel Subasic (Monaco), Lovre Kalinic (Gent), Dominik Livakovic (Dinamo)
- Defenders: Vedran Corluka (Lokomotiv Moscow), Domagoj Vida (Besiktas), Ivan Strinic (Sampdoria), Dejan Lovren (Liverpool), Sime Vrsaljko (Atletico Madrid), Josip Pivaric (Dynamo Kiev), Tin Jedvaj (Bayer Leverkusen), Duje Caleta-Car (Red Bull Salzburg)
- Midfielders: Luka Modric (Real Madrid), Ivan Rakitic (Barcelona), Mateo Kovacic (Real Madrid), Milan Badelj (Fiorentina), Marcelo Brozovic (Inter), Filip Bradaric (Rijeka)
- Forwards: Mario Mandzukic (Juventus), Ivan Perisic (Inter), Nikola Kalinic (Milan), Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim), Marko Pjaca (Schalke), Ante Rebic (Eintracht)
Recent results:
- Argentina 0 – 3 Croatia
21/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 2 – 0 Nigeria
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 2 – 1 Senegal
08/06/2018
Friendly, played in Croatia - Croatia 0 – 2 Brazil
03/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - Mexico 0 – 1 Croatia
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Peru 2 – 0 Croatia
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in USA - Greece 0 – 0 Croatia
12/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Greece - Croatia 4 – 1 Greece
09/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Croatia - Ukraine 0 – 2 Croatia
09/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Ukraine - Croatia 1 – 1 Finland
06/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Croatia - Turkey 1 – 0 Croatia
05/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Turkey - Croatia 1 – 0 Kosovo
02/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Croatia
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 27-10-8
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 43-2
- O/U 1.5 record: 32-13
- O/U 2.5 record: 16-29
- O/U 3.5 record: 8-37
- O/U 4.5 record: 5-40
- O/U 5.5 record: 4-41
- Wins
- Total wins: 27
- Won by 1 goal: 11
- Won by 2 goals: 7
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 3
- Won to nil 21
- Losses
- Total losses: 8
- Lost by 1 goal: 4
- Lost by 2 goals: 3
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 7
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 45
- Clean Sheets: 23
- Held Scoreless: 9
- Both Teams Scored: 15
Group D Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Croatia (A) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 |  |
Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 |  |
Iceland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −2 | 1 |
| 4 |  |
Argentina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −3 | 1 |
(A) Advance to Round of 16; (E) Eliminated.
Commentary
Iceland are on the brink of elimination after they slumped to a 2-0 defeat against Nigeria. They dodged a bullet in their 1-1 draw against Argentina, with Lionel Messi missing a penalty, but Iceland were their own worst enemy against Nigeria, conceding a soft second goal and missing a penalty of their own. To stay in the tournament they must now beat Croatia and hope that Nigeria lose to Argentina. Iceland could possibly progress if they win and Nigeria draw, but it gets messy with all the tie-breaking rules. Both Iceland winning and Nigeria losing are plausible. Croatia have nothing to play for and will likely finish top of the group even with defeat, while Argentina are 1.53 favourites to beat Nigeria. In team news, Ragnar Sigurdsson is a doubt after leaving the field against Nigeria with a head injury. Winger Johann Gudmundsson missed the fixture against Nigeria and is also in doubt.
Croatia have qualified for the Round of 16 with a game to spare after they defeated Nigeria 2-0 and Argentina 3-0. Their goal difference is 5 goals better than Nigeria, so Croatia will most likely progress as the Group D winners. With their superb midfield featuring Luka Modric & Co., Croatia have been many people’s dark horse for the tournament and their 5 goals with none conceded underlines their World Cup credentials. There was some good fortune in their goals against Nigeria and they had an indifferent start as they missed some sitters against Argentina, but Croatia have defended doggedly this tournament, which is a key trait to have in the knockout stage. By the end they were literally walking the ball into the goal against Argentina and 3-0 a fantastic result regardless of the poor form of the Argentinians. The win broke Croatia’s four-game losing streak to South American sides at the World Cup. Croatia have the luxury of rotating players for this clash and manager Zlatko Dalic has hinted that he will do so. Ivan Rakitic, Ante Rabic, Sime Vrsaljko, Mario Mandzukic, Marcelo Brozovic and Vedran Corluka are all one booking away from a ban, so might be left out of the squad.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Iceland vs. Croatia
Iceland and Croatia were in the same qualifying group for the World Cup. Iceland finished 1st on 22 points and Croatia 2nd on 20. In head to heads, Croatia won 2-0 at home and Iceland then won 1-0 when they hosted. That victory ended a five-game losing streak (0-1-4) to Croatia. Iceland have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against Croatia in all competitions. Both teams scored in just 1 of the previous 6 meetings. Iceland have failed to win any of their last 5 fixtures, while Croatia have won their last 3. If Croatia had everything to play for I would back them to win to nil, but they will rotate the squad, which throws a spanner in the works. Given that only 1 of 6 meetings between the two saw both teams score, and both teams scored in just 4 of Croatia’s last 12 fixtures and 15 of their 45 fixtures over the last four years, I will back at least one team to keep a clean sheet.
Betting tip: back No in the both teams to score market at 1.88 (Mad Bookie)
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more