The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Group D fixture between Nigeria and Argentina. The game kicks off on the 27th of June at 4:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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Nigeria
- FIFA World Rank: 48
- Elo Rating: 43
- Qualifying: Winner of Group B with a 4-1-1 record in the CAF Third Round.
Squad:
- Coach: Gernot Rohr (Germany)
- Goalkeepers: Ikechukwu Ezenwa (Enyimba), Daniel Akpeyi (Chippa United), Francis Uzoho (Deportivo La Coruna)
- Defenders: William Troost-Ekong, Shehu Abdullahi (Bursaspor), Leon Balogun (Brighton) Kenneth Omeruo (Chelsea), Bryan Idowu (Amkar Perm), Chidozie Awaziem (FC Porto), Elderson Echiejile (Cercle Brugge), Tyronne Ebuehi (Benfica)
- Midfielders: Mikel Obi (Tianjin Teda), Ogenyi Onazi (Trabzonspor), John Ogu (Hapoel Be'er Sheva), Wilfred Ndidi (Leicester City),Oghenekaro Etebo (CD Feirense), Joel Obi (Torino)
- Forwards: Odion Ighalo (Changchun Yatai), Ahmed Musa, Kelechi Iheanacho (Leicester City), Alex Iwobi (Arsenal), Simeon Nwankwo (FC Crotone), Victor Moses (Chelsea)
Recent results:
- Nigeria 2 – 0 Iceland
22/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Croatia 2 – 0 Nigeria
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Czech Republic 1 – 0 Nigeria
06/06/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - England 2 – 1 Nigeria
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in England - Nigeria 1 – 1 Congo DR
28/05/2018
Friendly, played in Nigeria - Serbia 2 – 0 Nigeria
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in England - Poland 0 – 1 Nigeria
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Poland - Argentina 2 – 4 Nigeria
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Algeria 3 – 0 Nigeria
10/11/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Algeria - Nigeria 1 – 0 Zambia
07/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Nigeria - Cameroon 1 – 1 Nigeria
04/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Cameroon - Nigeria 4 – 0 Cameroon
01/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Nigeria
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 20-11-14
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 41-4
- O/U 1.5 record: 31-14
- O/U 2.5 record: 13-32
- O/U 3.5 record: 8-37
- O/U 4.5 record: 3-42
- O/U 5.5 record: 1-44
- Wins
- Total wins: 20
- Won by 1 goal: 5
- Won by 2 goals: 11
- Won by 3 goals: 3
- Won by 4 goals: 1
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 0
- Won to nil 14
- Losses
- Total losses: 14
- Lost by 1 goal: 8
- Lost by 2 goals: 5
- Lost by 3 goals: 1
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 12
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 45
- Clean Sheets: 18
- Held Scoreless: 16
- Both Teams Scored: 15
Argentina
- FIFA World Rank: 5
- Elo Rating: 5
- Qualifying: Third place in the CONMEBOL qualifiers with a 7-7-4 record.
Squad:
- Coach: Jorge Sampaoli
- Goalkeepers: Sergio Romero (Manchester United), Wilfredo Caballero (Chelsea), Franco Armani (River Plate)
- Defenders: Gabriel Mercado (Sevilla), Cristian Ansaldi (Torino), Nicolas Otamendi (Manchester City), Federico Fazio (Roma), Marcos Rojo (Manchester United), Nicolas Tagliafico (Ajax), Marcos Acuna (Sporting Lisbon)
- Midfielders: Javier Mascherano (Hebei China Fortune), Eduardo Salvio (Benfica), Lucas Biglia (AC Milan), Giovani Lo Celso (Paris Saint-Germain), Ever Banega (Sevilla), Manuel Lanzini (West Ham), Maximiliano Meza (Independiente), Angel di Maria (Paris Saint-Germain), C
- Forwards: Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Paulo Dybala (Juventus), Gonzalo Higuain (Juventus), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Recent results:
- Argentina 0 – 3 Croatia
21/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Argentina 1 – 1 Iceland
16/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Argentina 4 – 0 Haiti
29/05/2018
Friendly, played in Argentina - Spain 6 – 1 Argentina
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Spain - Italy 0 – 2 Argentina
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in England - Argentina 2 – 4 Nigeria
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Russia 0 – 1 Argentina
11/11/2017
Friendly, played in Russia - Ecuador 1 – 3 Argentina
10/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Ecuador - Argentina 0 – 0 Peru
05/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Argentina - Argentina 1 – 1 Venezuela
05/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Argentina - Uruguay 0 – 0 Argentina
31/08/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Uruguay - Singapore 0 – 6 Argentina
13/06/2017
Friendly, played in Singapore
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 25-14-10
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 42-7
- O/U 1.5 record: 30-19
- O/U 2.5 record: 22-27
- O/U 3.5 record: 15-34
- O/U 4.5 record: 8-41
- O/U 5.5 record: 6-43
- Wins
- Total wins: 25
- Won by 1 goal: 12
- Won by 2 goals: 4
- Won by 3 goals: 3
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 2
- Won by 5+ goals: 2
- Won to nil 18
- Losses
- Total losses: 10
- Lost by 1 goal: 3
- Lost by 2 goals: 4
- Lost by 3 goals: 2
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 1
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 8
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 49
- Clean Sheets: 25
- Held Scoreless: 15
- Both Teams Scored: 16
Group D Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Croatia (A) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 |  |
Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 |  |
Iceland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −2 | 1 |
| 4 |  |
Argentina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −3 | 1 |
(A) Advance to Round of 16; (E) Eliminated.
Commentary
Nigeria are on the cusp of a Round of 16 place if they can avoid defeat against Argentina. A draw would mean they would have to rely on Iceland failing to beat Croatia, while a win would guarantee progression. After losing 2-0 to Croatia courtesy of an own-goal and a needless penalty, Nigeria got their campaign back on track with a 2-0 win over Iceland. A defeat in the second match would have seen them eliminated, but after a quiet first half in which Nigeria failed to record a single shot, Ahmed Musa scored twice in the second spell while Iceland missed a late penalty. Nigeria have been hot and cold this tournament. They were poor against Croatia and quiet in the first half against Iceland, but were excellent in the second half. They will have to play well for two halves if they are to upset Argentina. All of Nigeria’s six wins at World Cup tournaments have come against European sides. They remain winless against opposition from outside Europe. In team news, captain John Obi Mikel is set to play with his left hand in a cast after sustaining a fracture. When needing a win against Iceland, Nigeria switched to a 3-5-2 formation. With a point quite likely to be enough to progress, it will be interesting to see whether they stick with a formation that features just 3 at the back.
Captain Lionel Messi looked overburdened even before the kick-off against Croatia, and it filtered into his and Argentina’s form as they slumped to a 3-0 defeat. They were competitive until a goalkeeping howler resulted in the first goal and Argentina never looked in the match after that. This followed their 1-1 draw with Iceland, so Argentina face the prospect of elimination if they can’t beat Nigeria. Much of Argentina’s form seems tied into that of Messi’s, and he’s had a poor tournament thus far. He missed a penalty against Iceland and was painfully quiet in the first half against Croatia. The good news is Argentina have been handed a lifeline by Nigeria’s win over Iceland. They will need Croatia to do them a favour, though, and avoid defeat against Iceland in the other Group D fixture. Argentina are certainly in a slump. They have failed to win either of their opening two group stage matches for the first time since 1974. They haven’t won any of their last four World Cup games in regulation, which is their longest winless run in World Cup finals history. Argentina have never failed to win at least one group stage fixture at a World Cup before. An early departure wouldn’t be a massive shock, however, given Argentina weren’t convincing in qualifying, relying on a win on the final day to book their ticket to Russia. In team news, goalkeeper Willy Caballero has been dropped after his error against Croatia. Franco Armani is expected to get his first cap in his place. After using a 4-2-3-1 formation against Iceland and a 3-4-3 against Croatia, Argentina are predicted to change again, with a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 expected.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for Nigeria vs. Argentina
Nigeria have faced Argentina in the group stages of four World Cups (1994, 2002, 2010, 2014), with Argentina winning every clash – all by 1 goal. Nigeria have beaten Argentina twice in friendlies, most recently 4-2 in 2017, played in Russia. Each of the last four meetings have seen both teams score and 4+ goals scored, however three of those fixtures were friendlies. The other was a 3-2 win to Argentina in the 2014 World Cup. This is a tricky fixture to predict. The history between Nigeria and Argentina suggests a high scoring game with both sides scoring, but over the last four years only 13 of Nigeria’s 45 matches went over 2.5 goals and 12 of their 14 losses were to nil. Given Nigeria have only ever lost 1 game in 8 meetings by more than a goal to Argentina, and never by more than a goal against them in 4 World Cup meetings, I will side with Nigeria in the Asian handicap.
Betting tip: back Nigeria +1.5 in the Asian handicap at 1.63 (Betfair)
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more