The following is a match centre with betting tips for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Group F fixture between South Korea and Germany. The game kicks off on the 28th of June at 12:00 AM AEST. It will be broadcast live on SBS.
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South Korea
- FIFA World Rank: 57
- Elo Rating: 37
- Qualifying: Runners up in Group A with a 4-3-3 record in the AFC Third Round.
Squad:
- Coach: Shin Tae-yong
- Goalkeepers: Kim Seung-gyu (Vissel Kobe), Kim Jin-hyeon (Cerezo Osaka), Cho Hyun-woo (Daegu FC)
- Defenders: Kim young-gwon (Guangzhou Evergrande), Jang Hyun-soo (FC Tokyo), Jung Seung-hyun (Sagan Tosu), Yun Yong-sun (Seongnam FC), Oh Ban-suk (Jeju United), Kim Min-woo (Sangju Sangmu), Park Joo-ho (Ulsan Hyundai), Hong Chul (Sangju Sangmu), Go Yo-han (FC Seoul),
- Midfielders: Ki Sung-yueng (Swansea City), Jung Woo-young (Vissel Kobe), Ju Se-jong (Asan Mugunghwa FC), Koo Ja-cheol (FC Augsburg), Lee Jae-sung (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors), Lee Seung-woo (Hellas Verona), Moon Seon-min (Incheon United)
- Forwards: Kim Shin-wook (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors), Son Heung-min (Tottenham Hotspur), Hwang Hee-chan (FC Red Bull Salzburg)
Recent results:
- South Korea 1 – 2 Mexico
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Sweden 1 – 0 South Korea
18/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - South Korea 0 – 2 Senegal
11/06/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - South Korea 0 – 0 Bolivia
07/06/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - South Korea 1 – 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina
01/06/2018
Friendly, played in South Korea - South Korea 2 – 0 Honduras
28/05/2018
Friendly, played in South Korea - Poland 3 – 2 South Korea
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Poland - Northern Ireland 2 – 1 South Korea
24/03/2018
Friendly, played in Northern Ireland - Latvia 0 – 1 South Korea
03/02/2018
Friendly, played in Turkey - Jamaica 2 – 2 South Korea
30/01/2018
Friendly, played in Turkey - Moldova 0 – 1 South Korea
27/01/2018
Friendly, played in Turkey - Japan 1 – 4 South Korea
16/12/2017
EAFF Championship, played in Japan
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 33-11-16
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 54-6
- O/U 1.5 record: 37-23
- O/U 2.5 record: 25-35
- O/U 3.5 record: 16-44
- O/U 4.5 record: 9-51
- O/U 5.5 record: 3-57
- Wins
- Total wins: 33
- Won by 1 goal: 17
- Won by 2 goals: 9
- Won by 3 goals: 4
- Won by 4 goals: 1
- Won by 5 goals: 1
- Won by 5+ goals: 1
- Won to nil 26
- Losses
- Total losses: 16
- Lost by 1 goal: 10
- Lost by 2 goals: 5
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 1
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 6
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 60
- Clean Sheets: 32
- Held Scoreless: 12
- Both Teams Scored: 22
Germany
- FIFA World Rank: 1
- Elo Rating: 2
- Qualifying: Won Group C with a 10-0-0 record in the UEFA Confederation qualification.
Squad:
- Coach: Joachim Löw
- Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (Barcelona), Kevin Trapp (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Defenders: Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich), Matthias Ginter (Borussia Monchengladbach), Jonas Hector (FC Cologne), Mats Hummels (Bayern Munich), Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich), Marvin Plattenhardt (Hertha Berlin), Antonio Rudiger (Chelsea), Niklas Sule (Bayern Munich
- Midfielders: Julian Brandt (Bayer Leverkusen), Julian Draxler (Paris Saint-Germain), Leon Goretzka (Schalke 04), Ilkay Gundogan (Manchester City), Sami Khedira (Juventus), Toni Kroos (Real Madrid), Mesut Ozil (Arsenal), Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund), Sebastian Rudy (
- Forwards: Mario Gomez (VfB Stuttgart), Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich), Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)
Recent results:
- Germany 2 – 1 Sweden
23/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Germany 0 – 1 Mexico
17/06/2018
FIFA World Cup, played in Russia - Germany 2 – 1 Saudi Arabia
08/06/2018
Friendly, played in Germany - Austria 2 – 1 Germany
02/06/2018
Friendly, played in Austria - Germany 0 – 1 Brazil
27/03/2018
Friendly, played in Germany - Germany 1 – 1 Spain
23/03/2018
Friendly, played in Germany - Germany 2 – 2 France
14/11/2017
Friendly, played in Germany - England 0 – 0 Germany
10/11/2017
Friendly, played in England - Germany 5 – 1 Azerbaijan
08/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Germany - Northern Ireland 1 – 3 Germany
05/10/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Northern Ireland - Germany 6 – 0 Norway
04/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Germany - Czech Republic 1 – 2 Germany
01/09/2017
WC qualifiers, played in Czech Republic
Statistics: (last four years):
- H2H Record: 35-10-11
- O/U record
- O/U 0.5 record: 53-3
- O/U 1.5 record: 44-12
- O/U 2.5 record: 31-25
- O/U 3.5 record: 20-36
- O/U 4.5 record: 13-43
- O/U 5.5 record: 7-49
- Wins
- Total wins: 35
- Won by 1 goal: 14
- Won by 2 goals: 8
- Won by 3 goals: 6
- Won by 4 goals: 2
- Won by 5 goals: 0
- Won by 5+ goals: 5
- Won to nil 19
- Losses
- Total losses: 11
- Lost by 1 goal: 6
- Lost by 2 goals: 5
- Lost by 3 goals: 0
- Lost by 4 goals: 0
- Lost by 5 goals: 0
- Lost by 5+ goals: 0
- Lost to nil 6
- Clean Sheets and BTTS
- Total Games: 56
- Clean Sheets: 22
- Held Scoreless: 9
- Both Teams Scored: 28
Group F Table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Mexico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 |  |
Germany | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 |  |
Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 |  |
South Korea | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −2 | 0 |
Germany sit ahead of Sweden due to their head-to-head result being the fourth tie-breaker. The two are equal on points, goal difference and total goals.
Commentary
South Korea are on the brink of elimination after losing their first two fixtures. To progress they will need to beat Germany and hope that Sweden lose to Mexico. South Korea lost their opening fixture 1-0 in a scrappy game to Sweden. Their opponents’ only goal came from a penalty, but Sweden created the better of the chances while South Korea failed to achieve a shot on target. South Korea then lost 2-1 to Mexico. Son Heung-min’s stunning late strike deep into stoppage time added respectability to the scoreline, but they were easily the second best team on the pitch. One goal from 12 shots on target is a poor return. The stats ahead of this clash aren’t pretty. South Korea are winless in their last 8 World Cup matches (0-2-6 record) and they have lost their last 4. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 of their previous 14 World Cup fixtures. Even if South Korea do progress, the accumulation of yellow cards is an issue. Six players in the squad have received yellow cards thus far. Players receive a one match ban if they pick up a yellow card in two different games. In team news, South Korea will be without captain Ki Sung-yueng, who has a calf strain. Park Joo-ho is out for the rest of the World Cup after injuring his hamstring against Sweden.
Germany began their campaign with a shock 1-0 loss to Mexico. Both sides fielded attacking formations and Mexico took advantage of the space behind the German midfield as they exposed Germany’s defence. Germany then kept their chances of progression alive with a 95th minute goal to beat Sweden 2-1 in a tense encounter. They kept their composure after trailing 0-1 at the break and were rewarded with a 48th minute goal. Germany then pushed hard for the equalizer were able to find a last-gasp winner despite being reduced to 10 men in the 82nd minute. Self-belief is worth its weight in gold and Germany have it in spades. It was the ninth consecutive time that Germany have followed a defeat in the World Cup with a victory. Germany still look vulnerable at the back and haven’t been even close to their best, so they don’t look like World Cup winners at the moment, but they are a massive threat so long as they remain in the tournament. In team news, Jerome Boateng had a shocker of a game against Sweden. His red card automatically ruled him out of this game but it will be interesting if he returns to the Germany starting line-up if they do progress. Fellow central defender Mats Hummels is fit again after a neck injury. Midfielder Sebastian Rudy might feature with a protective mask after undergoing minor surgery on his broken nose.
Betting
bet365 odds (subject to change):
Compare the latest bookmaker odds for South Korea vs. Germany
History is on the side of Germany here. They have never failed to progress past the group stage of a World Cup and they have won all five of their previous World Cup games against Asian opponents, scoring 19 goals in total and keeping clean sheets in each of their last three matches. While they have been poor in recent friendlies, going 1-3-2 prior to the tournament, Germany have gone 15-1-1 in competitive matches since losing to France in Euro 2016. The friendlies that Germany failed to win were against far higher calibre sides than South Korea (Austria, Brazil, Spain, France and England). Of Germany’s 35 wins over the last four years, 21 were by two or more goals. South Korea, meanwhile, have gone 1-1-6 since March.
Given Germany’s defensive issues, with just one clean sheet in their last ten games with the likes of Saudi Arabia scoring against them, I’m not prepared to back Germany to win to nil. I will instead back them in the Asian handicap.
Betting tip: back Germany -1.5 in the Asian handicap at 1.66 (Betfair)
Notes
- FIFA World rankings are from the 7th of June and sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
- The World Football Elo Ratings are from the 11th of June and are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. This system is used by the international chess federation to rate chess players and is considered by many to be a superior rating tool to the one used by FIFA. The ratings have been sourced from https://www.eloratings.net/.
- Squad lists sourced from http://www.skysports.com/football/news/12098/11374464/every-world-cup-squad-listed-argentina-brazil-russia-and-more