The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 1 of the 2018/19 English Premier League.
Because it’s the first round of the season there is the obvious increase in uncertainty due to player transfers, managerial changes and the World Cup hangover, so keep these aspects in mind when reviewing the quoted statistics from last season.
Manchester United vs. Leicester City
Back Man Utd in the head-to-head at 1.52 (Unibet)
Man Utd went 15-2-2 at home over the last 12 months and would have yielded a $4.22 profit had you wagered $1 on them in each fixture. They have gone 3-1-0 in their last four home fixtures against Leicester City, who limped over the line with a 1-1-5 record at the end of last season. Against strong opponents Leicester have gone 0-1-5 in their last six away games.
Bournemouth vs. Cardiff City
Bournemouth won half of their home fixtures when installed as the favourite last season, so they are worth a punt at anything near 2.00 odds against what is on paper the weakest team in the league. Currently the best head-to-head odds are 1.91, which makes them marginal value in that market. Of their 7 home wins last season, six were by just one goal, which is why I would consider the winning margin selection.
Southampton vs. Burnley
Back Burnley +0.5 in the Asian Handicap at 2.07 (bet365)
Southampton only won 4 home fixtures last season, finishing with a 4-7-8 record, and they won just 6 the year before that. Burnley had the 6th best away record last season, with a 7-7-5 record. Had you wagered $1 on Burnley in each of their away fixtures over the last 12 months you would be up $20.37. Burnley won this fixture 1-0 last season.
Back Burnley +1.5 in the Asian Handicap at 1.30 (bet365)
Of the 4 games Southampton did win at home, 3 were by just one goal, while Burnley lost only 2 away fixtures by more than a goal last season.
Liverpool vs. West Ham
Back over 2.5 goals at 1.47 (TopBetta)
The last four meetings Liverpool and West Ham all saw 4+ goals scored. Eleven of the past 14 meetings between the two saw more than 2.5 goals. In the build up to the season Liverpool have been in free-scoring form, beating Man Utd 4-1, Napoli 5-0 and Torino 3-1.
Back the Liverpool 4-1 West Ham correct score at 17.00 (bet365)
This pick is just a small speculative punt. The last two fixtures between the two were won 4-1 by Liverpool and Liverpool won the fixture before that 4-0. Liverpool won by a 3-goal margin more frequently than any other margin at home over the last 12 months while West Ham lost by a 3-goal margin more frequently than any other margin away from home.
Arsenal vs. Manchester City
Back Man City +0.5 at 1.34 (Betfair)
Manchester City swatted aside Chelsea 2-0 in the Community Shield last week and on the back of their 16-2-1 away record last season, I’m prepared to back them here. Arsenal failed to win a home game as an underdog last season and in this fixture last year Man City emerged as 3-0 winners. Arsenal avoided any 90-minute defeats in pre-season, which is why I’ve opted for Man City in the Asian Handicap rather than the head-to-head market, although I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing Man City in the head-to-head at 2.00 (Unibet).