This article provides a preview with betting tips for Super Bowl LIII, which features the LA Rams and the New England Patriots.
The Super Bowl will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanda, Georgia. Kicks off is at 10:30 AM AEDT on Monday, February 4. The Mercedes-Benz Stadium has a retractable roof so weather shouldn’t be a factor.
LA Rams
- Head Coach:
Sean McVay is in his second season as the head coach of the Rams. At the age of 33 he will be the youngest ever head coach in a Super Bowl. Prior to this role he was the offensive coordinator for the Redskins. - Starting Quarterback:
Jared Goff was the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Halfway through his first season he won the starting role from Case Keenum and has been the starting QB since. - 2018-19 Regular Season Record:
The Rams finished the regular season as the number 2 seed in the NFC with a 13-3 record (7-1 at home and 6-2 on the road). - Form:
After starting the season 8-0, the Rams went 5-3 in the second half of the campaign. They bring a four-game winning streak into this clash, including playoff games. - Post Season:
Beat the Cowboys 30-22 at home in the Divisional Playoffs and defeated the Saints 26-23 in overtime away from home in the NFC Championship game. - Super Bowl record:
The Rams lost Super Bowl XIV in the 1979 season, won Super Bowl XXXIV in the 1999 season and lost Super Bowl XXXVI in the 2001 season.
New England Patriots
- Head Coach:
Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots since 2000. - Starting Quarterback:
Tom Brady was selected by the Patriots in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. He has spent his entire career with the Patriots. - 2018-19 Regular Season Record:
New England finished the regular season as the number 2 seed in the AFC with an 11-5 record (8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road). They had only the 3rd best record in the AFC but were given the 2nd seed because the LA Chargers (12-4) didn’t win their division, which contained the no.1 seeded Chiefs. - Form:
Bring a four-game winning streak into this clash, including playoff games. - Post Season:
Beat the Chargers 41-28 at home in the Divisional Playoffs and defeated the Chiefs 37-31 in overtime away from home in the AFC Championship game. - Super Bowl record:
This will be the Patriots’ 11th Super Bowl appearance and the 8th for quarterback Tom Brady as well as the 8th for Bill Belichick as a head coach. Brady and Belichick have won 5 Super Bowls together in New England, most recently in 2017.
Elo Ratings
Using the NFL Elo Ratings tool at our sister site and setting the “Previous Season Weighting” to 0 to account for just this season, we get the following Elo ratings for the various methodologies:
LA Rams (1st in the NFL)
Basic: 1,611.30
FiveThirtyEight: 1,604.52
AST1/2: 1,659.33
AST1/3: 1,639.80
Average: 1,628.74
New England Patriots (3rd in the NFL)
Basic: 1,575.65 (they were 1,609.13 this time last season and 1,626.96 the year before that)
FiveThirtyEight: 1,586.79
AST1/2: 1,626.12
AST1/3: 1,607.68
Average: 1,599.06
Every methodology rates the Rams as the stronger of the two teams. This fits in with the consensus that of the two sides, the Rams boast the strongest overall roster. On paper this is the weakest Patriots team of the three that have made the most recent Super Bowls.
Key Stats
The following regular season figures are sourced from NFL.com. The team with the better stat is highlighted in green.
YPG = yards per game.
Offence
| Offence Statistics | LA Rams | New England | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figure | Rank | Figure | Rank | |
| Passing (YPG) | 281.7 | 5th | 266.1 | 8th |
| Rushing (YPG) | 139.4 | 3rd | 127.3 | 5th |
| Total Offence (YPG) | 421.1 | 2nd | 393.4 | 5th |
| Points Per Game | 32.9 | 2nd | 27.2 | 4th |
The Rams have been the stronger team offensively this season, scoring 5.7 more points per game during the regular season than the Patriots. The Rams’ offence has been consistent this season, averaging 33.0 points per game in the first half and 32.9 in the second half. The Patriots’ offence diminished in productivity during the season, scoring 29.9 points on average in the first half compared to 24.6 points in the second half.
Defence
| Defence Statistics | LA Rams | New England | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figure | Rank | Figure | Rank | |
| Passing (YPG) | 236.2 | 14th | 246.4 | 22nd |
| Rushing (YPG) | 122.3 | 23rd | 112.7 | 11th |
| Total Defence (YPG) | 358.6 | 19th | 359.1 | 21st |
| Points Per Game | 24.0 | 20th | 20.3 | 7th |
The Rams have superior stats except for where it counts the most: points conceded. This fits in with the Patriots’ reputation for having a bend (concede yards), don’t break (conceded points) reputation. Worryingly for the Rams, their defense was weaker in the second half of the season, conceding 28.6 points per game in the final 8 games of the regular season compared to 19.4 points in the first 8 games. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defence improved, conceding 17.5 points per game in the second half of the season compared to 23.1 points in the first half.
Super Bowl LIII Betting
The following tips and discussion are broken down by market type.
Head to Head
At the time of writing the best available head-to-head odds are:
LA Rams at 2.20 (Neds)
New England at 1.77 (Ladbrokes)
The Rams have gone 1-0 as the underdog over the last twelve months, while the Patriots have gone 12-6 as the bookmaker’s favourite.
The two sides infrequently play each other. The most recent meetings have been:
2016-12-05 New England vs. LA Rams 26-10
2012-10-28 LA Rams vs. New England 7-45
2008-10-26 New England vs. LA Rams 23-16
None of those clashes featured the current head coach or starting QB for the Rams, which makes the data of little use.
More often than not the side that wins the Super Bowl is the side with the best defence and in this case, the Patriots boast the best defensive form over the second half of the season, conceding 17.5 points per game compared to 28.6 for the Rams. Also in the Patriots’ favour is their vastly superior experience in this situation, particularly for their respective head coach and starting quarterback.
If I were to bet on the head-to-head market I would back New England.
Line
The Rams have gone 9-2-7 at the line this season while the Patriots have gone 11-0-8.
The look-ahead lines for this clash had the Rams as 1-point favourites but they quickly shifted to 2 1/2 point underdogs when the markets opened. Some reports have been that as much as 80% of the money coming in at Vegas was on the Patriots, yet the line has held firm at 2.5, suggesting that bookmakers were taking a position on the Rams. The line briefly hit 3.0 with some bookmakers, but because it’s such a key number in American football, heavy punter activity has seen the number jump back to 2.5.
In the 52 previous Super Bowls, only 1 was settled by 2 points or less, and that was in 1991. Given that the 27 Super Bowls since were settled by 3 points or greater, if you are planning on backing the Rams +2.5 at the line, you might consider taking them at 2.20 in the head-to-head instead. At the same time, if you are planning on backing the Patriots at 1.77 in the head-to-head, you might prefer to instead back them -2.5 at 1.92 (BetEasy, Neds.
If I were to back a team in the line market I would opt for an alternative line and take the Rams +4.5 at 1.57 (bet365). Only one of Tom Brady’s 5 Super Bowl wins was by more than 4 points and based on Elo Ratings this is a weaker than average Patriots team.
Winning Margin
In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots’ Super Bowl results have been:
XXXVI (2002) – New England 20, St. Louis 17
XXXVIII (2004) – New England 32, Carolina 29
XXXIX (2005) – New England 24, Philadelphia 21
XLII (2008) – New York Giants 17, New England 14
XLVI (2012) – New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17
XLIX (2015) – New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
LI (2017) – New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28
LII (2018) – New England Patriots 33, Philadelphia Eagles 41
Of the Patriots’ five wins, three were by 3 points, one was by 4 points and the other was a six-point win in overtime.
Based on the history of close finishes, the Patriots 1-12 at 2.63 (Sportsbet) and the Rams 1-12 at 2.90 (Sportsbet) both hold appeal.
For those looking for a higher odds selections you can get the Patriots to win by 1-6 at 4.50 (bet365) and the Rams to win by 1-6 at 4.75 (bet365).
Total Score
After opening at 58.5, the total with most bookmakers is currently 56.5.
Neither side has a strong trend over or under this season. The Rams have gone 8-1-9 o/u while the Patriots have gone 11-0-8.
In the post season the Rams’ games have totaled 52 and 49 points – both below the total, while the Patriots’ games have totaled 69 and 68 points – both above the total.
Based on the above I don’t have any recommendation for the over/under market.
Other Match Markets
Given the Patriots came from behind in their 2015 and 2017 Super Bowl wins, the Rams/Patriots selection in the HT/FT market at 8.00 (Sportsbet) holds appeal.
Super Bowl LIII MVP
Both sides are stronger on offence compared to defence with multiple attacking weapons rather than key receivers so I’m inclined to look towards the quarterbacks:
Tom Brady: 2.46 (Betfair)
Jared Goff: 3.55 (Betfair)
One player to consider on the defensive side for the Rams, however, is defensive tackle Aaron Donald. It would be a long shot, but the pro bowler is world class and you can get him for 21.00 (Betfair).
First Touchdown Scorer
Compare the latest Super Bowl first touchdown scorer odds
This postseason the Patriots having been running the ball more, with Sony Michel running in five TDs and Rex Burkhead running in three. Brady only threw for two TDs, which were both caught by Phillip Dorsett. The Rams too have scored most of their postseason TDs by running the ball, with C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley II both scoring twice. Goff has thrown just one TD, which was received by Tyler Higbee.
Based on the above the value picks in this market are Sony Michel at 9.00 (Neds) and Rex Burkhead at 14.00 (Neds).
Best Bet
I don’t expect either side to get blown away so I would back both the Patriots 1-12 at 2.63 (Sportsbet) and the Rams 1-12 at 2.90 (Sportsbet).