The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, May 11. The highlights include two Group 1 races, the Doomben 10,000 (Race 8) at Doomben and the South Australian Derby (Race 7) at Morphettville. The other Group races along with selected races at Caulfield and Scone are also covered.
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Best bets of the day
Doomben Race 5, No. 1 Dealmaker
Doomben Race 6, No. 1 Dubious
Doomben Race 9, No. 7 Our Libretto
Morphettville Race 7, No. 3 Declarationofheart – place
Race 1, No. 1 Eastender – 4 stars
Race 3, No. 1 Zoutori – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 4: Back Kazio (4.60) to win.
Race 8 #1 Osborne Bulls
Race 8 #2 Nature Strip – lay bet – bet against this horse with Betfair
Race 7, No.10 Gem Song – 4.5 stars
Best Bet: No. 1 Osborne Bulls – 4.5 stars
Each Way: The Bostonian ($51/9.50)
Exotic: First Four 1,2 – 1,2,8,11 – 1,2,5,7,8,11 – 1,2,5,7,8,11
Race 4: Back Multaja (2.05) to win.
1. Osborne Bulls
2. Nature Strip
3. Champagne Cuddles
Suggested Bet: Back Osborne Bulls (3.40) to win.
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Dealmaker
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Czarson; #14 Shooting Love
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #2 Nature Strip
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 Le Juge; #5 Haripour
Race 5: Dealmaker
Race 6: Dubious
Race 8: Osborne Bulls
Race 9: Our Libretto – each-way
DEALMAKER (1) is getting close to a win after placing at his past two starts in Group company in Sydney. Finished off well for a 1.5L second over this distance in the G3 Frank Packer Plate last time. McDonald should secure him a cushy run from a low draw. Ready to win. PURPLE SECTOR (4) has only been about a head behind Dealmaker in his last two starts. Shinn should find the right position from the inside gate. Danger. A MAN TO MATCH (3) worked to the line well after a slow start when midfield in the Gunsynd Classic. Won his only attempt at this distance and should be fit third up. TRUSTY LAD (2) had form around A Man To Match last preparation. He too is an improver third up. The filly LIGHT UP THE ROOM (11) has yet to miss a place at this course.
DUBIOUS (1) is a smart colt who has been scratched a couple of times of late due to wet tracks. Freshened since his last attempt in the Golden Slipper and has good results in strong races including a second in the Magic Millions. McDonald goes aboard. Has the class. CZARSON (4) wasn’t too far behind Dubious when fourth in that Magic Millions and he will be improved by his resuming run when just nosed out in Sydney. Won his only previous second up attempt. Good chance. JAGGED EDGE (5) stepped up from a maiden win at Sunshine Coast on debut to land the Listed Dalrello last start. Hard to knock what he has done so far. STRASBOURG (3) will find this easier than the G1 Sires last start and has trialled since. SHOOTING LOVE (14) scored a big win here last start. Could take the next step.
If ever a horse deserved a G1 win it is OSBORNE BULLS (1). The Godolphin sprinter has been runner up at the highest level at all four runs this time in, the latest beaten a neck in the All Aged Stakes. Was second in both the TJ Smith and Newmarket so 1200m holds no concerns. Gets his chance. NATURE STRIP (2) is sure to take catching. He ticked the G1 box last start when clinging on to win the Galaxy. Has to go another 100m but has won at 1200m before. Massive chance. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (11) is an honest mare who wasn’t far behind Osborne Bulls in either the All Aged or TJ. That form sees her in the finish. TACTICAL ADVANTAGE (7) just missed first up in a Listed race at Hawkesbury. Has a decent second up record. OUTBACK BARBIE (13) is smart filly who races well fresh.
Progressive mare OUR LIBRETTO (7) got a long way back in a G3 at Randwick last start but did find the line strongly. Impressed before that with a fast-finishing win over this distance at Caulfield. Her racing pattern means she needs some luck on her side but if she gets it she could blow these away. ORDER AGAIN (10) didn’t appear to appreciate the heavy track last start so there was merit in his effort to run fourth. Good winner at Eagle Farm before that and will be at his peak fourth up. IGRAINE (12) has been progressing well in NZ this campaign and only missed by a nose last start. She can measure up. MONGOLIANCONQUEROR (14) is another Kiwi with two good runs under the belt this time in. May need some luck from the inside gate but should be included. HARIPOUR (5) was a beaten favourite last start but has claims on his previous Bendigo Mile win.
5. Borazon (3 stars)
8. Partnership (3 stars)
2. Trusty Lad (3 stars)
1. Dealmaker (3 stars)
4. Czarson (3 stars)
5. Jagged Edge (3 stars)
12. Good Humour (3 stars)
3. Strasbourg (3 stars)
1. Osborne Bulls (5 stars)
2. Nature Strip (3 stars)
5. Easy Eddie (3 stars)
7. Tactical Advantage (3 stars)
19. The Candy Man (3 stars)
9. Le Juge (3 stars)
18. Kubis (3 stars)
4. Exoteric (3 stars)
Many of these heading towards a Derby start in June should they perform well here, on the map The Golden Hind & Masstoo look the likely leaders with nos.7 & 11 not far away. The visiting Sydney pair DEALMAKER & PURPLE SECTOR take on the locals TRUSTY LAD & A MAN TO MATCH & I’m in the corner if the southern raiders who both come out of the Group 3 Packer Plate at Randwick last start, slight leaning to DEALMAKER however could well suggest backing both. TRUSTY LAD & A MAN TO MATCH both ran on well over the mile last start, they will lap up the 2000m & can certainly prove competitive.
Wide gate for The Odyssey who likes to settle on or around the lead, 8, 11 can lead whilst 1 & possibly 12 park handily. Like the look of DISRUPTOR who ran 2nd to Reloaded at Randwick on Anzac Day, that horse is very well fancied in the Atkins which is a month away. Sitting 5 deep without cover he refused to shirk his task in the straight, again not an ideal draw here however with some cover can still prove too good. DUBIOUS will get the right run just off the pace, not raced for 7 weeks so keep a close eye on the market moves. CZARSON has solid form however is another who will need luck early
To the Group 1! Without doubt Nature Strip is the fastest runner engaged however he comes up with a wide gate, on my map nos.3, 4, 5 & possibly 8 are the ones most likely to make him earn the lead, the race will basically come down to how easily he can cross & I think he’ll do so without using too much gas. His numbers are very good & he looked sharp winning a recent Randwick trial running time. OSBORNE BULLS the definite danger, his pattern is the exact opposite getting back & running on, busting to win a Group 1 & if he was able to find a spot closer (highly unlikely) then lookout late!
We wind up a great day with a lead up race heading towards Cup in a month, pace from the widely drawn Kubis who will be looking to offset the bad gate early on, plenty of others capable of pushing on. Find the victor of this & you’ll likely win on the day & note Chris Waller has a lazy 6 acceptors! Each-way TUMULTUOUS for me, yes he’ll need luck from a wide gate however he always finds the line & seems to race very well here in Queensland, if he’s a little easy in the market though he may be in need of one more run? Stablemate HARIPOUR may be the hardest to beat, it’s a raffle though!
1. Dealmaker (5 stars)
2. Purple Sector (4 stars)
3. A Man To Match (4 stars)
1. Dubious (5 stars)
2. Czarson (4 stars)
3. Jagged Edge (4 stars)
1. Osborne Bulls (5 stars)
2. Nature Strip (5 stars)
3. Champagne Cuddles (4 stars)
1. Our Libretto (5 stars)
2. Order Again (4 stars)
3. Igraine (4 stars)
DEALMAKER (1) Kept finding the line when 2nd last run at Randwick and drawn nicely. Will be trying to topple them late. Rates highly. PURPLE SECTOR (4) Good run when placing 3rd last start at Randwick and will appreciate a good barrier. Could go well. A MAN TO MATCH (3) Flew home into 3rd three runs back at Eagle Farm and will be hitting the line strongly. Place chance. BORAZON (5) Did enough to win two runs back at Eagle Farm but up in grade. Can push an each way bet for it here.
DUBIOUS (1) Competitive effort when 3rd two runs back at Randwick and back in an easier grade. Winning chance. JAGGED EDGE (5) Fought on well to win last run at Eagle Farm and has a good draw. Strong form this preparation winning 2 from as many attempts. Could go well. CZARSON (4) Having third run back from a break. Flashed home late into 2nd last run at Kensington but up against stronger competition here. Should go close. SHOOTING LOVE (14) Won by a huge margin last run here and change in trainer to Tony Gollan. Could work into the placings.
NATURE STRIP (2) Broke through in good fashion for his maiden Group 1 victory last start. Can do it again here. OSBORNE BULLS (1) Has run 2nd in four consecutive Group 1 races. Has the ability to take this out. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (11) Racing in great form of late and can run on well. Each way the play. EASY EDDIE (5) Has work to do from the awkward draw but not completely out of this. One at a price.
HARIPOUR (5) Scored a victory two runs back at Bendigo. Definite winning chance. THE CANDY MAN (19) Won narrowly last time at Gold Coast and will be trying to topple them late. Going well this campaign winning 3 from as many starts. Could take beating. OUR LIBRETTO (7) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at Caulfield. Has a great burst of speed late. Can make a claim. LE JUGE (9) Left nothing to chance when winning last run at Eagle Farm but racing in stronger company today. Very competitive this preparation. Each way bet.
Best Bet: No. 2 Mr Quickie – 4 stars
Best Value: Mangione ($31)
Exotic: Box Exacta 1,2,3,4,10,16
Back Mr Quickie (3.90) and Secret Blaze (9.00) to win.
If investing 10 units have 8 units on Mr Quickie and 2 units on Secret Blaze.
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #6 She Shao Fly
Betting Confidence: Medium
Lay – #2 Mr Quickie
Race 1: Hinchpin, saving on Barcali
Race 7: Declarationofheart, with small bet on Qafila
In the SA Sires’ Produce Stakes to start the day, HINCHPIN (3) could then get some favours. He won with ease in the Gawler maiden and while this is a step up, it’s hardly a strong race. MR DEADLINE (2) is the stable mate and comes through a Ballarat maiden. He is another who will be in a more forward position. YOU HADME AT HELLO (7) trotted in second up. Just has to bring that to the longer trip. BARCALI (1) can take a sit here and could be strong late. SHE SHAO FLY (6) could be placed again here.
In the G1 South Australian Derby, DECLARATIONOFHEART (3) has had a lovely foundation for this. He showed he’d recovered well from the Australian Derby to win the Chairman’s Stakes. He should have won it by further. Gets a great run all the way from the draw. MR QUICKIE (2) has been in top form in Melbourne. The only question is will he get the trip but everything says so. RIDGEWOOD DRIVE (8) put his hooves up with a big win last week. Related to a stayer and may go on with it. QAFILA (16) is the filly with a hope. She made up big ground in the Australasian Oaks. CHAPADA (1) has had a month off after Sydney. Might enjoy a softer track too.
2. Mr Deadline (3 stars)
6. She Shao Fly (3 stars)
3. Hinchpin (3 stars)
1. Barcali (3 stars)
2. Mr Quickie (5 stars)
6. Classic Weiwei (4 stars)
5. Secret Blaze (3 stars)
16. Qafila (3 stars)
An interesting race to kick of the program with four last start winners, 3 of those come out of the McEvoy stable. SHE SHAO FLY ran home well from back in the field to finish third in the Breeders Stakes here a fortnight ago. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and there looks to be plenty of speed in it which will assist. FLOREAT PICA is another who looks suited stepping up to 1400m. He hit the line strongly at Benalla when resuming. YOU HADME AT HELLO won by a big margin at Gawler when out to 1200m. FASCINO had no luck on debut then wasn’t disgraced in a good race at Flemington.
DECLARATIONOFHEART was too good for the opposition in the Chairman’s Stakes here a fortnight ago. He gives every impression that the longer trip will suit. Be a bit forgiving of his effort in the ATC Derby as the wet track was against him that day. MR QUICKIE made it 8 wins from 11 starts when he defeated Admiral’s Joker at Caulfield last time. He’s bred to appreciate the extra distance. RIDGEWOOD DRIVE cleared out for an easy win over 2000m at Flemington last Saturday. SECRET BLAZE has won his past two in Victoria, the latest over 2425m. Other hopes: 1, 6, 5, 9 & 11.
1. Hinchpin (5 stars)
2. Mr Deadline (4 stars)
3. You Hadme At Hello (4 stars)
1. Declarationofheart (5 stars)
2. Mr Quickie (4 stars)
3. Ridgewood Drive (4 stars)
HINCHPIN (3) Kicked clear when winning last start at Gawler but racing in stronger company here. Raquel Clark is a bonus. Appears well in this. MR DEADLINE (2) Got the prize when winning last run at Ballarat and drawn nicely. Can get the job done. BARCALI (1) Brave effort to win last run at Ballarat and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Tracking very well this preparation. Can give this a shake. YOU HADME AT HELLO (7) Won by a huge margin last time at Gawler but racing in stronger company today. Right in this.
MR QUICKIE (2) Far too good at Caulfield in the VOBIS Gold Heath. Rates on top. DECLARATIONOFHEART (3) Sprinted well here last start and can repeat the dose today. Well in this. RIDGEWOOD DRIVE (8) Was a big winner at Flemington and this doesn’t look out of reach. Each way. CHAPADA (1) Struggled last start but definitely has the ability to take this out. One at odds.
Race 6 #8 Intuition – VALUE BET
Race 7 #11 Into the Abyss – BEST BET
Race 5, No. 6 Evalina – EACH-WAY – 3 stars
Race 8, No. 10 Victorem – 3.5 stars
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #9 Organza – each-way
Race 7: Into the Abyss
INTO THE ABYSS (11) was a tragedy beaten in the JHB Carr Stakes last start, when caught locked away on the inside. Chance she faces a similar scenario again, but trusting Glyn to get her into clear air. Best form leaves her well placed and with even luck she should prove hard to beat. MOSS TRIP (6) failed to fire when well in the market (10-1) in the Coolmore Classic, but her effort prior was very good and she did win the Guineas here last year. Like her fresh (56 days) and she looms as a major threat. SWEET SCANDAL (8) stuck on well last start and should be much better suited back on top of the ground. More than capable on best form and has to be respected. RESIN (4) the next in line.
1. Princess Posh (3 stars)
9. Organza (3 stars)
14. Asharani (3 stars)
3. Savatiano (3 stars)
Precious little speed in this one. SWEET SCANDAL can find the front but from there the field is mostly populated by backmarkers. Granted, PRINCESS POSH is one of them and the tempo may not set her up ideally but if she takes this option over the Luskin Star I could send an investment her way. 1400m is best hitting zone’ and a couple of recent G1 efforts against her own sex recommend her highly. SAVATIANO won a Class 2 at this carnival last year but has come a long way since. RESIN (also in R6) and MOSS TRIP (last year’s Guineas winner here) both worth plenty of thought.
1. Into The Abyss (5 stars)
2. Moss Trip (4 stars)
3. Sweet Scandal (4 stars)
MOSS TRIP (6) Has good finishing speed. Was average finishing 18th last run at Rosehill but third up. Can bounce back and will run close. SAVATIANO (3) Stormed home when 2nd three runs back at Newcastle and drops back to a suitable class. Has early speed and positions nicely. Deserves consideration. SIREN’S FURY (2) Was fighting out the finish when winning three runs back at Rosehill and goes down in class. Can go through the gears. Could go well at this level. INTO THE ABYSS (11) Dashed home into 2nd last run at Randwick and has a nice advantage with a good barrier. Going well this campaign with 2 placings from 3 starts. Modest chance for multis.