The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Friday and Saturday at Moonee Valley on October 25-26. This includes two Group 1 races: the Manikato Stakes (Race 7) on Friday and the Cox Plate (Race 9) on Saturday. A few races at Randwick are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Moonee Valley Race 7, No. 9 Bivouac, saving on No. 2 The Bostonian
Moonee Valley Race 5: No. 1 Condo’s Express
Moonee Valley Race 8: No. 3 Dreamforce
Moonee Valley Race 9: No. 9 Lys Gracieux and No. 12 Mystic Journey
Moonee Valley Race 10: No. 5 Amangiri
Race 1: AMELIA’S ON FIRE
Race 2: WIDGEE TURF
Race 3: MR MARATHON MAN
Race 4: CELTIC BLAST
Race 5: GREYSFUL GLAMOUR
Race 6: PARSIFAL
Race 7: 1. BIVOUAC, 2. Vital Silver, 3. Loving Gaby, 4. The Bostanian
Race 8: RESERVE STREET
BACK – Bivouac – Bet to WIN (stake 2.3% of your total bank.)
Race 1, No.1 Amelia’s On Fire – 4 stars
Race 2, No.1 Widgee Turf – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 5, No.3 Oceanex – 4.5 stars
Race 7 – Manikato Stakes:
2. The Bostonian
4. Vital Silver
Top Pick: Bivouac ($1.85) – 4 stars
Best Value: Faatinah ($18)
Exotic: Boxed Exacta – 2,3,9
3. The Bostonian
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #2 The Bostonian
Race 7: The Bostonian each-way
BIVOUAC (9) brings a string of high-class ratings into this and just needs to hold his form to prove too strong. He was dominant in the Run To The Rose and then held off Yes Yes Yes in the Golden Rose. That form has certainly worked out! Has the pace to make the most of barrier one. THE BOSTONIAN (2) should be at his top now third up. Wants the 1200m and thought he ran really well in the Schillaci last time. He is the danger and looks a good each way betting option away from the short-priced favourite. TROPE (6) will be running on but no easy task to round them up. The fillies, LOVING GABY (11) and ANAHEED (10), are both talented and not dismissed lightly.
9. Bivouac (5 stars)
10. Anaheed (4 stars)
11. Loving Gaby (3 stars)
5. Vital Silver (2 stars)
BIVOUAC has not been missed by the market and it’s easy to see why. He has accounted for the subsequent Everest winner at his past two starts and partly due to that $14 million sprint, the field he meets tonight would be considered one of the weaker Manikato Stakes in recent memory. Loved TROPE’s fresh run at Randwick behind a track specialist in Deprive (since won again). Wide barrier not a big deal for him. LOVING GABY sat handier at Caulfield last start but couldn’t match motors with a potential star. Doubt those are the best tactics with her so expect a quieter ride. She is back to The Valley tonight, the scene of her terrific fresh win. THE BOSTONIAN and FAATINAH next best.
Selections: 9. Bivouac, 6. Trope, 11. Loving Gaby, 2. The Bostonian
BIVOUAC (9) Comes into this race in top form and the inside barrier helps. Clear on top pick. THE BOSTONIAN (2) Good run in the Schillachi and well suited over this trip. Can win. LOVING GABY (11) Fitter again and should benefit from the drop in weight. Each way the play. TROPE (6) Ran well behind Arcadia Queen last start. Not out of this.
Race 1: MILDRED
Race 2: ESPERANCE
Race 3: FASCINO
Race 4: VILLAMI
Race 5: CONDO’S EXPRESS
Race 6: SOUL PATCH
Race 7: HUMIDOR
Race 8: GAILO CHOP
Race 9: 1. LYS GRACIEUX, 2. Avilius, 3. Cape Of Good Hope, 4. Kluger
Race 10: GIRL TUESDAY
BACK – Mystic Journey – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your total bank.)
BACK – Te Akau Shark – Bet to WIN (stake 0.3% of your total bank.)
BACK – Avilius – Bet to WIN (stake 0.3% of your total bank.)
Race 9 #9 Lys Gracieux
Race 1, No.9 Mildred – 3.5 stars
Race 7, No.5 Hunting Horn – 3.5 stars
Race 8, No.9 Pacodali – EACH-WAY – 3.5 stars
Race 10, No.5 Amangiri – 4 stars
Race 9 – Cox Plate:
1. Lys Gracieux
2. Magic Wand
Best Bet: Lys Gracieux ($3.50)
Best Value: Magic Wand ($13)
Exotic: Exacta 9 – 2,3,8,10
1. Lys Gracieux
2. Mystic Journey
3. Magic Wand
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #6 Beauty Bolt
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #5 Dirty Work; #2 Lucifer’s Reward
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 Moonlight Maid
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #7 Humidor
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Dreamforce; #9 Pacodali
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #9 Lys Gracieux; #12 Mystic Journey
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #4 Music Bay
Race 3: Fascino
Race 5: Condo’s Express
Race 6: Serious Liaison and Battenburg
Race 7: Downdraft
Race 8: Dreamforce
Race 9: Mystic Journey each-way
Race 10: Amangiri
FASCINO (1) was big odds but ran really well in the Manifold and that looks a good piece of form for this thinner contest. She goes on top. ASIAGO (5) has won three on the bounce this time around and while the margin was only narrow last time she looks the one spiralling the right way. She can go on improving and give this a big shake. ASPECT RATIO (4) can get into a positive spot and comes off a win at the trip after finding the A-Grade fillies too hot in the Tea Rose. BEAUTY BOLT (6) is another coming through a good run in the Manifold and NUDGE (7) was right there with Asiago last time and that formline must be respected.
CONDO’S EXPRESS (1) won well here in the McKenzie before heading to the Blue Sapphire on the fresh side last time. Effort there was really good and now gets back to the Valley where he has looked so good. He can take a power of beating. LUCIFER’S REWARD (2) has been racing really well and outrunning his odds. Can do that again with the blinkers going on. Think he is a key chance. RUUCA (9) will improve second up and looks targetted at this coming from Brisbane. DIRTY WORK (5) has form around top liners and has to be a hope while HEYINGTON STATION (6) is winning and could measure up without surprising.
SERIOUS LIAISON (3) ran about over the mile at Caulfield but he was strongest late and gave the impression that a step up in trip would suit. Blinkers go on and that looks a big plus for him. Can be the improver. BATTENBURG (1) went to this trip and ran a blinder in the Spring Champion. Terrific effort and rates highly on the back of that. MOONLIGHT MAID (9) rounded up the fillies over a mile last time and will stay the longer journey. SOUL PATCH (5) closed well from too far back in the Guineas. Gets blinkers and improving nicely. CRAFTMANSHIP (6) can measure up.
DOWNDRAFT (4) is an interesting runner here. Progressive though this season, winning a pair of listed races before a very solid effort in the Leger Trial at the Curragh. That’s a good piece of form and he can continue to build on that here. MR QUICKIE (6) had no luck in the Caulfield Cup. Should have been in the finish there and this is easier. HUNTING HORN (5) has raced the best in Europe this season. Couple of really good efforts amongst his form and he should relish this ease in quality. HUMIDOR (7) is interesting tried up in trip now. He was okay last time and was set to peak on this day. SULLY (8) next best.
DREAMFORCE (3) worked hard in a high-pressure Epsom and was soft late. Can be very forgiving there. The run prior was terrific and he gets into a great spot here up on the speed. Best form marks him down as the horse to beat. SIKANDARABAD (10) ran really well in the Toorak, coming back from 2000m. Form around the mile is all solid and he must be considered one of the better winning hopes. MADISON COUNTY (13) also comes through the Toorak looking sure to run well. Faced tough tasks in both runs this time in but has run well and tipping he peaks third up for this. DREAM CASTLE (6) and ROX THE CASTLE (11) are others for the shortlist.
MYSTIC JOURNEY (12) gets a chance to land in a great spot here, stalking an even tempo. That’s where she races best and after closing strongly from too far back last time she appeals as being much better suited now. Star mare that can take out a very even looking Cox Plate. LYS GRACIEUX (9) heads the betting with strong form in the book highlighted by her big Group 1 win in Japan last time. A repeat of that would test these. MAGIC WAND (10) also arrives off a big international Group 1 last time out. Ran second in the Irish Champion and looks to get on speed favours in this. Can forgive AVILIUS (2) through the Caulfield Stakes and CASTELVECCHIO (14) has the right profile to measure up. Should be able to settle handy from his low draw.
AMANGIRI (5) has peaked and won third up in the past and looks on track to follow that pattern this time around. She was solid first up and then improved nicely up to the mile last time in a similar race. Like her with that mile run under the belt now. MUSIC BAY (4) is also a third up winner and comes here poised to peak off a sound 1400m run last time. Nice option for her. GIRL TUESDAY (2) pulled up with excuses last time. Comes back in trip and did run really well over the mile two back in much stronger company. SCARLET DREAM (3) is another easing in trip. She will run on. VANUATU (11) heads up the fringe chances.
5. Asiago (5 stars)
2. Bonvicini (3 stars)
1. Fascino (3 stars)
4. Aspect Ratio (3 stars)
1. Condo’s Express (5 stars)
12. Hearty Lass (4 stars)
2. Lucifer’s Reward (2 stars)
6. Heyington Station (2 stars)
9. Moonlight Maid (5 stars)
3. Serious Liaison (4 stars)
6. Craftmanship (2 stars)
5. Soul Patch (2 stars)
7. Humidor (3 stars)
9. Alfarris (3 stars)
11. Attention Run (3 stars)
6. Mr Quickie (3 stars)
11. Rox The Castle (5 stars)
2. Debt Agent (3 stars)
3. Dreamforce (3 stars)
1. Gailo Chop (3 stars)
12. Mystic Journey (3 stars)
2. Avilius (3 stars)
7. Te Akau Shark (3 stars)
1. Black Heart Bart (3 stars)
4. Music Bay (3 stars)
12. Seewhatshebrings (3 stars)
1. Consensus (3 stars)
8. Extreme Bliss (3 stars)
SPEED: Not sure leader but any/ all of 2,4,5,7,8 can be right up there so? LA FALAISE kept closing in Guineas Prelude in limited room finishing between Missile Mantra and Flit. The 1600m looks ok. ASPECT RATIO won her maiden well beating Relucent who had form behind Acting, that’s the filly that won said Guineas Prelude. FASCINO and BEAUTY BOLT were both very good in Manifold Stks in swoopers race ASIAGO beat NUDGE at Kembla, there was merit in their last 600m/ overall figures that day.
Selections: 3. La Falaise, 4. Aspect Ratio, 6. Beauty Bolt, 1. Fascino
5, 9 & 12 the dual acceptors this race. DIRTY WORK did a stack of work at Rosehill and ran very well, he wasn’t far away latest in strong race run in fast time. The end of 1200m is still some query. CONDO’S EXPRESS battled well in a strong Blue Sapphire at Caulfield when eight weeks between runs. SARTORIAL SPLENDOR was caught wide on speed last time. HEARTY LASS had a softer run to beat him that day. Sartorial Splendor beat home LUCIFER’S REWARD prior. RUUCA can win if here. CIELO D’ORO ran on at Bendigo against the race shape.
Selections: 1. Condo’s Express, 7. Cielo D’oro, 9. Ruuca
SPEED: 4 can lead 1, 8 with 2 off those. BATTENBURG was run over by two very good 3YOs in the G1 Spring Champion. One of them, Castelvecchio, is in the betting in a Cox Plate later today. It was his first go at 2000m. SOUL PATCH is a danger. He was hard at it a long way out in the G1 Caulfield Guineas but hit the line sweetly. In fact, only winner Super Seth had a faster last 200m. Yes 2040m! INDEPENDENT ROAD was wide/huge at Flemington when jumping quickly to 1800m. SERIOUS LIAISON charged late at Caulfield. He will relish 2040m also. MOONLIGHT MAID is another suited to this trip.
Selections: 1. Battenburg, 5. Soul Patch, 2. Independent Road, 3. Serious Liaison
SPEED: 5 may lead? 2, 8, 9 can be handy. 1, 11 off those. MR QUICKIE was outstanding first up then a forgive run his next two. He looked to have plenty to offer in the Caulfield Cup but nowhere to go! TOP OF THE RANGE was terrific in the Coongy off a wide run behind Wolfe, who wasn’t disgraced in that Caulfield Cup. ATTENTION RUN covered ground in the Metrop. Her Newcastle Cup run prior was excellent working on a hot speed. SULLY is going super. DOWNDRAFT has “proper” G1 form for the Oz debut. Not many I can put the pen through here …
Selections: 6. Mr Quickie, 4. Downdraft, 11. Attention Run, 8. Sully
SPEED: 3,5,11 from 1,6 with 7 off those? SIKANDARABAD closed off well in G1 Toorak Hcp ridden back, he likes MV and speed on paper suits. DREAMFORCE was a forgive run in G1 Epsom, he beat all-bar Avilius prior and easily beat Te Akau Shark before that, handles Soft but he is better dry. PACODALI can turn the tables on ROX THE CASTLE here at WFA/ 1600m with likely speed on and is a bigger price early markets. GAILO CHOP drops to 1600m but has a case.
Selections: 10. Sikandarabad, 3. Dreamforce, 9. Pacodali, 1. Gailo Chop
SPEED: 4 & 10 go forward with 5,9 coming across. 12 next? LYS GRACIEUX beat Kiseki easily last start, he was second to Almond Eye in last year’s Japan Cup. Lys Gracieux easily beat KLUGER when they clashed in Japan, that horse made Winx work to beat him in Queen Elizabeth in Sydney. MAGIC WAND ran into Magical last start, she was coming off .75L 2nd to Enable. MYSTIC JOURNEY ran on well in Turnbull Vs tempo/ pattern at her first go 2000m. TE AKAU SHARK was excellent in Epsom and can measure up. 3YO CASTELVECCHIO goes in everything for mine.
Selections: 9. Lys Gracieux, 7. Te Akau Shark, 14. Castelvecchio, 12. Mystic Journey
SPEED: 1, 5 can lead 4, 6 handy. GIRL TUESDAY is 5-weeks between runs and back in trip. she was confronted with the same scenario in April at Randwick, she won easily. Go back two starts and she’s crossing the line with Avilius. AMANGARI set a strong speed last time when second up and fought hard when collared, she easily beat some smart mares that day. MUSIC BAY was terrific fresh then had a setback and was five weeks off into Flemington when sound against males. She beat SNOGGING her last go 1600m. PURE SCOT the best blowout? CONSENSUS has a case.
Selections: 5. Amangiri, 2. Girl Tuesday, 4. Music Bay, 7. Pure Scot
1. Asiago (5 stars)
2. Fascino (4 stars)
3. Aspect Ratio (4 stars)
1. Condo’s Express (5 stars)
2. Lucifer’s Reward (4 stars)
3. Ruuca (4 stars)
1. Serious Liaison (5 stars)
2. Battenburg (5 stars)
3. Moonlight Maid (4 stars)
1. Downdraft (3 stars)
2. Mr Quickie (5 stars)
3. Humidor (4 stars)
1. Dreamforce (5 stars)
2. Sikandarabad (4 stars)
3. Madison County (4 stars)
1. Amangiri (5 stars)
2. Music Bay (4 stars)
3. Girl Tuesday (4 stars)
ASIAGO (5) Going well this campaign winning 3 from as many starts but up against stronger competition here. Fought on gamely when winning last time at Kembla Grange. Expect to go close. FASCINO (1) Chimed in with a win three runs back at Ballarat. Hard to dismiss. ASPECT RATIO (4) Brave effort to win last start at Warwick Farm but racing in stronger company today. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Looks promising in this race. BEAUTY BOLT (6) Brave effort to win three runs back at Seymour. Has a great burst of speed late. Can give this a shake.
CONDO’S EXPRESS (1) Displayed potential when winning two runs back at this venue. Has run into the money 6 from 7 attempts this preparation. Looks promising in this race. SARTORIAL SPLENDOR (3) Ran on strongly when 3rd last run here and won’t be far away during the run. Among better hopes. DIRTY WORK (5) Should be going forward early. Finished 4th last start at Randwick but looks well placed in this grade. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. HEARTY LASS (12) Really dug deep when winning last start at this venue and third up today. Should muster plenty of early speed. Worth an investment.
BATTENBURG (1) Nice run when 3rd last time at Randwick and back in an easier grade. Rates well in this race. MOONLIGHT MAID (9) Winner last run at Flemington and tracking very well this campaign. Will be trying to topple them late. Serious contender. SOUL PATCH (5) Was first to greet the judge when winning two runs back at Flemington and looks well placed in this grade. Possesses good finishing speed. One of the major hopes. INDEPENDENT ROAD (2) Ran on strongly when 2nd last time at Flemington but up against stronger competition today. Should be swooping on the field late. Can figure here.
MR QUICKIE (6) Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd three runs back at Flemington and will be hitting the line strongly. Goes close. HUMIDOR (7) Displayed promise moving through the field into 5th last start at Caulfield and will find this grade easier. Will be motoring home late. Open to improvement and is a strong chance again. DOWNDRAFT (4) First run back from a break. Pulled away to win two runs back at Down Royal and will benefit with the weight drop. This field suits. HUNTING HORN (5) Has early speed and positions nicely. Folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Leopardstown but will appreciate the drop in class. Don’t disregard.
DREAMFORCE (3) Put a gap on the rest when winning three runs back at Randwick. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Looks a winning hope. GAILO CHOP (1) Was competitive when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and proven runner at this trip. Should muster plenty of early speed. Respect. SIKANDARABAD (10) Was found wanting late when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield but up in weight today. Will be trying to topple them late. Key hope. MADISON COUNTY (13) Flashed home late into 2nd three runs back at Randwick and should get going late. Marginal chance.
LYS GRACIEUX (9) Japanese import who comes here with very strong form lines. Looks hard to beat. MYSTIC JOURNEY (12) Had too much to do in the Turnbull Stakes and should get a better run this time in. Can bounce back. AVILIUS (2) Made up good ground in the Caulfield Stakes. Winning chance with early pace on. CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (11) Good win in the Caulfield Stakes and should improve from that run. Each way.
AMANGIRI (5) Should muster plenty of early speed. Solid run on the pace before weakening to finish 3rd last time at Randwick and having third run back from a break. Prominent showing expected and won’t be far off them. GIRL TUESDAY (2) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Randwick and going down in class. Has a nice turn of foot. This field suits. MUSIC BAY (4) Third up today. Was fighting out the finish when winning three runs back at Morphettville. One of the main dangers. SCARLET DREAM (3) Produced an eye catching run when 2nd three runs back at Randwick and looks well placed in this grade. Will be motoring home late. Looks to be the value.
Race 1: CLOSE TO ME
Race 2: LORD DESANIMAUX
Race 3: DIAMOND THUNDER
Race 4: LUVALUVA
Race 5: MULTAJA
Race 6: MASTER OF ARTS
Race 7: 1. JUST THINKIN’, 2. Kubrick, 3. Bottega, 4. Colada
Race 8: RONSTAR
Race 9: ROMANI GIRL
Race 2, No.4 Ambitious Prince – 3.5 stars
Race 3, No.1 Diamond Thunder – 4 stars
Race 6, No.7 Master of Wine – BEST BET – 5 stars
Race 3 #3 Faretti – LAY BET
Race 6 #7 Master of Wine – BEST BET
Race 9 #12 Napoleon Solo – VALUE BET