The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 7. The four Group 1 races of the day are the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6 at Flemington), Australian Cup (Race 8 at Flemington), Canterbury Stakes (Race 5 at Randwick) and Randwick Guineas (Race 7 at Randwick). The other group races at Flemington and Randwick are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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Flemington Race 1: No. 2 Muntaseera
Flemington Race 7: No. 3 Tenley each-way
Flemington Race 8, No. 6 Regal Power each-way
Randwick Race 2: No. 2 Farnan
Randwick Race 3: No. 1 Dame Giselle
Race 2, No.7 Albukhturi – each-way – 3.5 stars
Race 3, No.3 Spend – BEST BET – 5 stars
Best Bet: Exceedance ($5.50) – 4 stars
Best Value: Zoutori ($10)
Exotic: Trifecta: 5,6,11/2,4,5,6,11/2,4,5,6,11
Best Bet: Regal Power ($6.50) – 4 stars
Best Value: Harlem ($14)
Exotic: Trifecta: 4,6,8/4,5,6,8/2,4,5,6,8
1. Loving Gaby
Race 7: How Womantic
Race 8: Regal Power
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Holyfield; #9 The Watchman
Betting Confidence: High
Back – #6 Exceedance; #5 Bivouac
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Pretty Brazen; #3 Tenley
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #5 Kings Will Dream
Race 1: Muntaseera
Race 2: Holyfield each-way
Race 6: Loving Gaby each-way
Race 7: Tenley
Race 8: Regal Power each-way
MUNTASEERA (2) brings the standout form with the pattern of the day making her Blue Diamond fifth look a really good effort. Her win was slick and she ran well, again without a perfect run in transit, in the Prelude which rated highly. Horse to beat. GEIST (3) was sound just one place behind Muntaseera in that Predlue and has to have a hope off that. Skipped the Diamond to be aimed here. MINHAAJ (5) steps up in class but could hardly have been more impressive winning on debut and can measure up without shocking. Respect the solid JYOTI (1).
OLE KIRK (2) follows the All Too Hard path from a few years back. The stable unearthed a superstar there, and while Ole Kirk is unlikely to prove anywhere near as good, his debut was strong and the way he ran through the line suggested he would only be better up in trip. Got better the further they went there. HOLYFIELD (3) has the run and the win at the trip. Form around his debut win worked out relaly well and he kept finding last time. Lots to like. LARIMER STREET (1) was good at Warwick Farm and should cope up in trip now. CLOUDBREAKER (10) comes off a win at Sandown. Just an even race and this is tougher but clearly a horse on the up.
GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (2) was terrific winning first up. Ran good time from the front and while the pattern may have played to her there she is only going to be better up to a mile now and hard to peg back again. FIDELIA (4) certainly has the talent to run her down but she makes it hard for herself with her racing pattern. She will be flying late. BONVICINI (3) won well first up and don’t want to undersell that form. She can measure up. SPANISH REEF (1) is fitter and third up at the mile is her go. Hard to beat. BAM’S ON FIRE (6) should run well again and wary of Meuse.
LOVING GABY (11) won her side in the Lightning, gunning down Nature Strip and putting him away well. Wasn’t enough to land her the prize but she is a better horse at 1200m and that looks a good set up for her now. Think she can knock off the Coolmore 1-2-3 headed by EXCEEDANCE (6) who hits this first up. High-rating effort to gun down BIVOUAC (5) here and if he can come back around that level it will take a smart performance to hold him out. Bivouac and LIBERTINI (13) arrive off just even returns but both can come on second up and have top level talent. No knocking GYTRASH (1) off his surprise Lightning win. Has to be a hope again.
TENLEY (3) draws to get a soft run behind the leaders from the low draw. Didn’t get clear running when she desperately needed it first up around the Valley. Ran really well, arguably stiff not to win it, and better suited second up at 1400m now. RUBISAKI (1) won with a leg in the air up at Warwick Farm and must have a good hope back to Flemington where she is already twice a winner. HOW WOMANTIC (5) arrives here unbeaten in four. She’s smart but does have to stretch it to 1400m now and it’s not getting any easier. Good test for her. PRETTY BRAZEN (2) and LA TENE (4) must have hopes coming here off pleasing returns.
REGAL POWER (6) was terrific closing against the pattern in the lead up and looks ideally placed going to 2000m here on the back of that. Looms as the big improver from Caulfield and just needs an honest tempo to run at to think that he round them up. AVILIUS (2) will be right there with him. Thought he was terrific late in the piece in the Chipping Norton last week and if he can fire on the back up (no reason to think that he won’t) he’s hard to stop. KINGS WILL DREAM (5) gets another soft run from a low draw and he is going as well as ever. Must be a chance, as must be FIFTY STARS (7) backing up from the Blamey which he won in fast time last week. MIRAGE DANCER (8) was as good as Regal Power in the Peter Young and he too has to be respected in a deep and interesting Australian Cup.
2. Muntaseera (3 stars)
1. Jyoti (3 stars)
7. Succeed Indeed (2 stars)
4. Incredulous Dream (2 stars)
10. Cloudbreaker (3 stars)
1. Larimer Street (3 stars)
3. Holyfield (3 stars)
5. Lunar Fox (3 stars)
9. Paint The Town Two (3 stars)
6. Bam’s On Fire (3 stars)
10. Neighbourhood (3 stars)
2. Greysful Glamour (3 stars)
11. Loving Gaby (3 stars)
1. Gytrash (3 stars)
7. Halvorsen (3 stars)
4. The Inevitable (3 stars)
1. Rubisaki (5 stars)
5. How Womantic (3 stars)
2. Pretty Brazen (3 stars)
4. La Tene (3 stars)
14. Miss Siska (3 stars)
6. Regal Power (3 stars)
7. Fifty Stars (3 stars)
9. Southern France (3 stars)
NOTE: Rail was 4m Wednesday. At time of writing no races had been run and today’s rail position is TBA. Last time they raced midweek here it was ‘Rapid Racing’ and all straight races. It came to the Saturday and inside section was superior ground (according to senior riders). MUNTASEERA was race-fastest last 200m of a Blue Diamond despite racing out in the inferior ground. MINHAAJ won like a good filly at Bendigo, she’d chased Hanseatic in a jumpout prior. JYOTI was backed heavily to win the Gold Sovereign, Third there had run well behind Personal, who placed in Blue Diamond. GEIST has a case.
Selections: 2. Muntaseera (Top Tip), 5. Minhaaj, 1. Jyoti, 3. Geist
SPEED: 3, 5, 10 and fancy 4 goes forward. 11 takes trail? HOLYFIELD was too strong for SUROOJ at Sandown Hillside, on debut he beat Prime Star, that’s the 2YO who won the $2m Inglis Millennium at Warwick Farm, beating the luckless LARIMER STREET. OLE KIRK was strongest late to win the Talindert Stakes at debut, fancy 1400m suits now. CLOUDBREAKER beat many of today’s key rivals at Sandown Lakeside last start and she was up on speed. THE WATCHMAN was the best of the closers there and was on debut.
Selections: 3. Holyfield (Top Tip), 1. Larimer Street, 2. Ole Kirk, 9. The Watchman
SPEED: 2 leads. Any/all of 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 handy. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR had track pattern on her side fresh but won well in fast time. She’s very good on her day. SPANISH REEF was beaten for speed that same race then came to the outside before running on into third, she was one of only two to place all day away from the inside lanes. Her 1600m record is outstanding. FIDELIA produced a lazy 32.9 last 600m last week. She has backed-up and won in the past. She has 3.5kg on Spanish Reef from the spring clash. FABRIC won well latest and has placed to Fidelia. BONVICINI, MEUSE hopes from Vanity.
Selections: 4. Fidelia (Top Tip), 1. Spanish Reef, 2. Greysful Glamour, 7. Fabric
EXCEEDANCE and BIVOUAC were two-all last prep, Exceedance won both on wet tracks, Bivouac both on dry. Exceedance is unbeaten fresh and won a hot Group 1 Coolmore here up the straight, third that day was LIBERTINI, 1.9L away. She came wide fresh on a day most winners were inside. Worth noting, she is unbeaten (4 from 4) on dry tracks. LOVING GABY was first home outside in the Lightning and beat the luckless Bivouac when they clashed last prep. ZOUTORI went super fresh in the Oakleigh Plate and is a hope on his Gilgai run. THE INEVITABLE, HALVORSEN, GYTRASH are hopes.
Selections: 6. Exceedance (Best of the Day), 5. Bivouac, 13. Libertini, 11. Loving Gaby
Not sure map/leader. Nine of 15 can race handy though! TENLEY looked unlucky fresh in the Typhoon Tracy and should have won the Exford Plate here second up last prep at 1400m. RUBISAKI was impressive in Inglis Sprint in Sydney. She’s been beaten twice in her life and the aggregate margin is .3L. What a jet. Expect much better here from SOUTHBANK and SCORE, who come off complete forgive runs at Caulfield. PRETTY BRAZEN made a good return in The Vanity, beating FASCINO. Suspect staying 1400m it is advantage her again. HOW WOMANTIC is unbeaten and runs time. 1400m looks OK. CHASSIS best roughie?
Selections: 3. Tenley (Value Bet), 1. Rubisaki, 11. Score, 8. Southbank
SPEED: 10 leads 14 & 4. Maybe 3, 5, 7, 11 handyish? VOW AND DELARE returns, he was nice late when 1.6L off KINGS WILL DREAM in the Turnbull here fresh last prep. ‘Kings’ is drawn for a gun trail here and he was third up last prep when he won said Turnbull. AVILIUS is the class, his sectionals home last week were outstandin, is he a length better in Sydney? He was beaten 1.4L this race last year behind HARLEM, who is flying (without luck) this prep. REGAL POWER came from back/wide against bias/tempo behind MISS SISKA in Peter Young when 9-weeks off. MIRAGE DANCER was just as good! Yes 2000m.
Selections: 6. Regal Power (Top Tip), 5. Kings Will Dream, 2. Avilius, 8. Mirage Dancer
Muntaseera (5 stars)
Geist (5 stars)
Minhaaj (3 stars)
Ole Kirk (5 stars)
Holyfield (4 stars)
Larimer Street (5 stars)
Greysful Glamour (4 stars)
Fidelia (5 stars)
Bonvicini (1 star)
Loving Gaby (5 stars)
Exceedance (4 stars)
Bivouac (4 stars)
Tenley (5 stars)
Rubisaki (5 stars)
How Womantic (5 stars)
Regal Power (5 stars)
Avilius (4 stars)
Kings Will Dream (4 stars)
Race 8: 1. KINGS WILL DREAM, 2. Mirage Dancer, 3. Avilius, 4. Miss Siska
Race 6 #6 Exceedance
BACK – Loving Gaby – Bet to WIN (stake 1% of your bank)
Race 2, No.1 Tagaloa – 4 stars
Race 4, No.7 California Zimbol – 4.5 stars
Race 8, No.8 Shared Ambition – 4 stars
Race 2, No. 2 Farnan
Race 4, No. 5 Anaheed
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #2 Farnan
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #1 Dame Giselle
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #5 Savatiano
Betting Confidence: Medium
Back – #3 Redzel
Betting Confidence: Low
Back – #5 Shadow Hero
Race 1: Fasika
Race 2: Farnan
Race 3: Dame Giselle
Race 5: Standout
Race 6: Nature Strip
Race 7: Shadow Hero
Race 9: Danzdanzdance
FASIKA (3) was very good in both starts to begin last preparation before a touch out-classed in the Golden Eagle prior to a break. Since trialled well in the lead up and this looks a suitable assignment. Will handle the conditions and should prove hard to beat. I AM EXCITED (2) is sure to relish the drop back in grade for this having not been disgraced in the Lightning Stakes first up. The booking of Bowman a further push. BOOKER (1) is a big watch on debut for the Gerald Ryan stable having gone like a bomb at the trials. Certainly capable. INVICTUS SALUTE (6) continues to race well and appears the next in line.
FARNAN (2) returned with a bang last start when simply dominant winning the Silver Slipper. Went into that off a 42 day break, so suspect he has more to come and has drawn to find the front or sit just off for Bowman. In the right stable and ticks a few boxes. TAGALOA (1) did a great job when winning the Blue Diamond Stakes last start, just whether he comes off that run is the query, if he holds his form, if not improves, he looms as an obvious threat. GLOBAL QUEST (3) gets the blinkers on for the first time and cannot be underestimated, while BARTLEY (7) appears the next in line.
DAME GISELLE (1) failed to fire in the Lonhro Plate first up, however she remains open to sharp improvement second up and while this isn’t the Grand Final, she is a very talented filly and should prove hard to beat. CELLSABEEL (4) went too bad to be true last start and is clearly worth another chance. Her win two back was simply too good to ignore. SEE YOU SOON (3) is the big watch in the race, she displayed plenty of ability in her maiden preparation and can certainly make her presence felt. SUPREME IDEA (5) has been saved for this race and gets conditions to suit. Won well last start and no reason to think she can’t go back to back.
STANDOUT (7) couldn’t have been more impressive first up when making light work of his rivals in the Expressway. Since kept fresh (35 days) and they just don’t trial any better leading into this. Progressive and is clearly the one to beat. SAVATIANO (5) toyed with her rivals first up and has now won three of her last four. On an upward spiral, though will need to be to match the 3YO. Stablemate ALIZEE (4) won well last start and appears well set up dropping back in trip. Just query whether she has any more upside. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (3) the next in line.
NATURE STRIP (2) went awful first up when safely held in the Lightning Stakes. Clearly better than that and by all reports may have been a touch underdone. Chris Waller is the master and expect him to bounce back in a big way. Clearly the one to beat. REDZEL (3) beat home Nature Strip last start and this C&D is certainly his wheelhouse. Drawn to get into a good spot and is very hard to knock. SANTA ANA LANE (1) will likely improve with the run and could find these a bit sharp, but hard to ignore his class. DEPRIVE (5) takes on the big boys, but deserves his chance.
SHADOW HERO (5) closed off well in the Hobartville and should show good improvement racing second up (2/2). Still likely to be short of his best, however he may settle closer from the good draw and should prove hard to beat. CASTELVECCHIO (1) has never beaten home Shadow Hero in three meetings and hasn’t won since his 2YO season, but it was hard not to love his last 200m in the Hobartville. Could they press the button and roll forward? If so, would have to be a big chance. BRANDENBURG (6) won the lead up in fine style and while a big SP (40-1), the market can undervalue lightly raced horses. Hard to knock. MICROPHONE (3) disappointed last start, but still wasn’t disgraced, next best.
DANZDANZDANCE (1) closed off well first up when finishing a close fifth behind Alizee in the Apollo Stakes. Open to good improvement off the back of that effort and should appreciate the drop back in grade. Will relish the conditions and with JMac going aboard she ticks a few boxes. Should prove hard to beat on class alone. EMERALDS (13) caught the eye late in the Light Fingers and is another who will appreciate the drop back in grade. Drawn well for McEvoy and looms as a major threat. IRITHEA (2) gets the blinkers back on and can improve sharply, while ALIFEROUS (8) also holds claims second up.
6. Invictus Salute (5 stars)
7. Seasons (4 stars)
3. Fasika (2 stars)
5. Bangkok (2 stars)
1. Tagaloa (5 stars)
2. Farnan (4 stars)
3. Global Quest (2 stars)
6. Blondeau (2 stars)
1. Dame Giselle (5 stars)
2. Mildred (3 stars)
3. See You Soon (3 stars)
5. Supreme Idea (3 stars)
4. Alizee (4 stars)
7. Standout (3 stars)
5. Savatiano (3 stars)
1. Mister Sea Wolf (3 stars)
3. Redzel (5 stars)
1. Santa Ana Lane (4 stars)
2. Nature Strip (2 stars)
7. Miss Leonidas (2 stars)
2. Super Seth (5 stars) – SCRATCHED
3. Microphone (3 stars)
1. Castelvecchio (3 stars)
6. Brandenburg (3 stars)
10. Killer Instinct (3 stars)
2. Irithea (3 stars)
11. Missybeel (3 stars)
9. Gayatri (3 stars)
Randwick rated Soft 5 on Wednesday morning but showers were falling at that time and more was expected into Thursday. The full extent of the predicted rainfall may lead us to Heavy and then it would be a matter of whether Friday/Saturday could be relatively clear to decide if we can improve back to Soft. Rail out 3 metres. We begin with a G3 sprint for mares. Interesting speed setup. I have SPIRITUAL PURSUIT kicking up from 1 but BOOKER is into a new stable and led throughout in her latest trial. FASIKA was unbeaten in her first prep than winless but admirable last time around in stronger grade. She was behind BOOKER in her trial but crossed the line with Santa Ana Lane.
Selections: 3. Fasika (Top Tip), 2. I Am Excited, 5. Bangkok, 6. Invictus Salute
OLE KIRK also accepted for Flemington and several others (all but FARNAN and BLONDEAU) were nommed for Sunday’s Black Opal at Canberra (where it was raining heavily on Wednesday). So we will lose a couple I think it’s fair to presume. It’s just another piece of the mind-bendingly perplexing puzzle that is the Golden Slipper leadup. Keep in mind that all Slipper winners from 2011 to 2018 won or ran 2nd in either this or the Reisling so it’s a crucial day. I’m with FARNAN after an emphatic return from QLD. Maybe he can lead today and will be hard to get to if he does. The Blue Diamond winner TAGALOA (if he’s here) creates heaps of interest.
Selections: 2. Farnan (Top Tip), 1. Tagaloa, 3. Global Quest, 9. On The Lead
10 accepted for Newcastle Friday. Only 3 and 4 were nommed for Canberra Sunday. 5 and 2 look the speediest. The top five are the key runners. DAME GISELLE and CELLSABEEL had their colours lowered last start at odds-on and you would expect good stables to persist only if they thought they could bounce back strongly. In CELLSABEEL’s case she pulled up 2/5 lame so there’s a fair excuse. Doesn’t she get buried away here on the inside though? I’m not so sure MILDRED can’t measure up; she is most experienced here and has won on Soft 7. Maybe DAME GISELLE wants drier?? And SEE YOU SOON Is exciting but will have to fly from the tail.
Selections: 2. Mildred (Top Tip), 4. Cellsabeel, 5. Supreme Idea, 1. Dame Giselle
5 and 3 to lead the 6. STANDOUT will be presented with conditions he hasn’t seen before but he has developed an awesome record and a neat trial win on Feb 25 has kept him at the right mark. Form from behind him in the Expressway has stood up pretty well (bar perhaps Kolding at Caulfield). THE BOSTONIAN might be worth a saving bet. Fresh form outstanding and if it gets to Heavy he won’t be fazed one bit. ALIZEE I presume will be favourite and on these conditions perhaps that’s fair. Hopefully BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER enjoys running around this way. Things haven’t panned out this prep so far but he is G1 standard clearly.
Selections: 7. Standout (Top Tip), 2. The Bostonian, 4. Alizee, 3. Begood Toya Mother
Hot speed in a hot race. 2 bounces and dashes, 8 crosses up, 4 tries to be there and 3 as well. It may relegate the likes MISS LEONIDAS and JUNGLE EDGE to trailing roles, which seems a bit weird. The easy assumption is that all that pace is a great setup for the swoopers, of which there are two. It feels a bit obtuse to tip the lesser performed of the two but I have a feeling that DEPRIVE still has higher levels to go and will rip home here with SANTA. His latest two at Randwick are a TJ Smith win and an Everest 2nd so there can’t be any knock. Plenty knocked NATURE STRIP after his Lightning defeat. Has still won 9 of 12 when starting odds-on and you’re showing a profit if you’re loyal to him.
Selections: 5. Deprive (Top Tip), 1. Santa Ana Lane, 2. Nature Strip, 3. Redzel
Tricky speed map. Did MICROPHONE relish leading last time? He has the chance to cross up again here I think. That said, BRANDENBURG and RELOADED were way closer than I expected in the Hobartville so presume they’re rolling up as well. That was an on-pace dominated race and this may be as well. The one time SUPER SETH led he got beaten at $1.40 so I presume they’re trailing. Gallant in defeat last time, clearly he’s come back well and his only mile run was that defeat of Alligator Blood of course. RELOADED is now 3rd-up peaking but must cope with a tricky barrier. And maybe BRANDENBURG is just now at a new level??
Selections: 2. Super Seth (Top Tip) – SCRATCHED, 8. Reloaded, 3. Microphone, 6. Brandenburg
In a race where most like settling back, 11 and 2 lead the way. DANZDANZDANCE draw widest (which may or may not be problematic) but her return was good enough to think she’s well placed here even with 59.5kg against her own kind. In fact that may be generous to the others as she is clearly top rated of them. A wet track does not worry her but McDonald has a task to slot her in for a decent trail. I’m down the page for the dangers. IRITHEA has limited experience at a mile but will be prominent and perhaps getting a cosy run. NETTOYER always a chance to run on in whatever she competes.
Selections: 1. Danzdanzdance (Top Tip), 2. Irithea, 3. Nettoyer, 5. Aqua D’ivina
Fasika (5 stars)
I Am Excited (4 stars)
Booker (4 stars)
Farnan (5 stars)
Tagaloa (4 stars)
Global Quest (4 stars)
Dame Giselle (5 stars)
Cellsabeel (4 stars)
See You Soon (4 stars)
Standout (5 stars)
Savatiano (4 stars)
Alizee (4 stars)
Nature Strip (5 stars)
Redzel (4 stars)
Santa Ana Lane (5 stars)
Shadow Hero (5 stars)
Castelvecchio (4 stars)
Brandenburg (4 stars)
Danzdanzdance (5 stars)
Emeralds (5 stars)
Irithea (5 stars)
Race 4 #3 Dawn Passage – VALUE BET
Race 6 #2 Nature Strip – LAY BET
Race 8 #8 Shared Ambition – BEST BET
BACK – Cellsabeel at anything above $3.30 for 2 units
BACK – Microphone – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your bank)
BACK – Brandenburg – Bet to WIN (stake 0.7% of your bank)