Super Rugby AU Grand Final – Brumbies v Reds – Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for the 2020 Super Rugby AU Grand Final between the Brumbies and Reds.

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To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.

Saturday, 19 September


Brumbies vs. Reds

7:15 PM AEST, GIO Stadium, Canberra
View a detailed form guide for Brumbies vs. Reds

Prior to their bye last week the Brumbies fell 7-27 to the Reds in Brisbane. The hosts ran out to an 18-0 lead before the Brumbies scored a late first half try. In the second stanza the Brumbies dominated both territory and possession but couldn’t find a way past the stubborn Reds’ defence. In their prior meeting in Round 5 the Brumbies prevailed 22-20 in Canberra, courtesy of a penalty after the final hooter. Prior to covid the Brumbies won 27-24 in Round 1, also in Canberra.

The Reds defeated the Rebels 25-13 in a physical qualifying final last week to extend their winning streak to four games. The two sides were locked 10-10 at halftime before the Reds pulled away with the win. Defence has been the key to the Queenslanders’ form. They have conceded just 28 total points in the last four games and just 3 total points in the previous two second halves. Last week’s win came at a cost, however, with Chris Feauai-Sautia unlikely to play this week after picking up a groin injury. In better news, Jordan Petaia is expected to be fit despite leaving the field last week.

Betting: travel could be the deciding factor here. The Reds bring superior form into this clash but they will head to Canberra on the day of the final. So far this season eleven teams have travelled on the day of the game and ten were defeated. The sole exception was the Waratahs’ victory over the Force on the Gold Coast in Round 7. Also counting against the Reds is the fact that they’re backing up after a physical contest while the Brumbies will be well rested. The final factor is the venue. The Brumbies have gone 7-1 at home over the last 12 months while the Reds have gone 1-1-6 away from home. Also, the Brumbies have won the last seven straight against the Reds in Canberra. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.70 (Sportsbet). Due to the Reds’ second half defensive record I also like the first half to be the highest scoring at 2.00 (bet365).
Confidence/value: low


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