AFL Finals Grand Final Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for the Grand final of the 2020 AFL season.

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Saturday, October 24


Richmond vs Geelong

7:30pm , The Gabba
View a detailed form guide for Richmond vs Geelong


This very strange old 2020 AFL season comes to an end on Saturday night–yes, night–when the Tigers take on the Cats in the very first night Grand Final, and the very first Grand Final outside of Victoria. The Tigers earned their place by beating Port Adelaide on Friday night in what was one of the best games of football all year. The slightly slippery conditions only added to the intensity, meaning neither team had any time and space with the ball. It was a real scrap all evening, and while Port could easily have won, the Tigers thoroughly deserved the victory.

The Cats played the following night against the Lions, and it was a very different affair: they walked all over Brisbane, winning with ease. It was probably a little surprising, but the Cats were red hot and Brisbane seemed a little off their game. The intensity seemed a fair way below the standard set the previous night, but it’s always hard to compare games that are played in different conditions and at different grounds. That said, I’m not sure the Cats would’ve been good enough to cope with the intensity and pressure that was on display on Friday.

They’re a good team, Geelong, but I don’t think they’re right up there with the very best. They are carried by their best players, and while that’s not usually a recipe for success, now that they’ve made it to the last game of the year all they need is one more big game from Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Guthrie, and Menegola, and decent supporting roles from Stanley, Blicavs, Ablett, and Rohan, and they’ll be a chance.

But the Tigers have been the best team of the past three years, they’ve got the big game experience, they can handle the pressure, and they’ve got just as many star players as Geelong, while having a stronger bottom five or six. The Cats love playing at the Gabba, and I do think that’ll play somewhat to their advantage, but I doubt it’s enough to impact the result. The weather will play another significant role, with storms forecast all day in Brisbane, but as far as I’m concerned it won’t favour either side: both of them seem to play pretty well in the wet.

That should mean this is a scrappy, low scoring Grand Final, but I’d still be terribly surprised if Geelong got within three goals of Richmond. The Tigers have consistently proven themselves to be too good in the big games, and I expect them to clinch a third premiership on Saturday evening. And how could you go past Dustin Martin for another Norm Smith medal?

Betting tip: Richmond to win @ $1.85 (bet365, BlueBet, Unibet)


Best Bets of the Round

Richmond to win @ $1.86 (bet365, BlueBet, Unibet)


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