Tuesday Horse Racing Tips – Flemington – November 3, 2020

The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Tuesday, November 3. The focus is on the full race card at Flemington, which includes the Melbourne Cup (Race 7). More tips and previews will be added as they become available.

Melbourne Cup article

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Best bets

Please note that these may change leading up to the race day.

Race 1: No. 1 Ingratiating
Race 2: No. 2 Joviality
Race 4: No. 8 Yonkers
Race 5: No. 2 Ain’tnodeeldun


Sportsbet – The Wolf:

Race 1: Ingratiating
Race 2: Twain’s Express
Race 5: Ain’tnodeeldun – BEST BET
Race 6: Tavidance

Race 7:
Two-pronged strategy here. Surprise Baby is seemingly the forgotten horse but if he can replicate his performance last year, he’s the one to beat. The Wolf will be saving on Tiger Moth, however, as he just has too much talent to ignore. If you’re looking for something at odds, Stratum Albion could shock at a massive price.

Trifecta: 12,13,21/1,5,7,9,12,13,14,16,21/1,5,7,9,11,12,13,14,15,16,21,23

TOP 5:
1. Surprise Baby
2. Tiger Moth
3. Prince of Arran
4. Sir Dragonet
5. Stratum Albion

Race 8: Junipal
Race 9: Music Bay -each-way
Race 10: Chicago Cub each-way

Quaddie: 1,5,7,9,12,13,14,16,21/1,6,8,15/2,4,5,15/1,2,6,7,10,15,16,17

Unibet – Race Comments:

Race 1:
INGRATIATING (1) Got the cash when winning last run at this venue and fitter for debut run. Has to be strongly considered. MARINE ONE (7) Capitalist 2yo trained by Lloyd Kennewell having first start. One of the main chances. Respect. GULF OF SUEZ (6) 2yo first starter sired by Fighting Sun for trainer Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. One for your trifecta. OWN THE NIGHT (8) Ciaron Maher and David Eustace trained 2yo by Astern on debut. Can run into the placings.

Race 2:
JOVIALITY (2) Bold effort to win three runs back at Warwick Farm and going well this campaign. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Has genuine claims in this race. TWAIN’S EXPRESS (3) Third up from a spell. Chimed in with a win three runs back at Mornington. Sure to be thereabouts again. SWEET REPLY (4) Charged home into 2nd last run at Randwick and will try to take advantage of the draw. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Good chance and wouldn’t be surprised to see it pick up a win. PRIDE OF JENNI (6) Landed the spoils when winning last run at Mornington and gets the perfect draw. Chance.

Race 3:
HARD LANDING (1) Game effort to win three runs back at Moonee Valley and should come to hand quickly. Could take beating. ALLEBOOM (3) Made a mess of them when winning two runs back at Morphettville and expecting to settle positively. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Winning claims. MR MOPPETT (2) Got the cash when winning two runs back at Leeton but going up in weight. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Has been a model of consistency since coming back from a spell. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. HARLEM BLUES (4) Resumes after a spell. Scored a victory last run at Ballarat but facing a stronger class. Winnable race.

Race 4:
YONKERS (8) Showed promise when winning last start at Caulfield. Should enjoy a cosy run off the pace. Has to be included. KNIGHTS ORDER (2) Fought on well to win last run at Randwick and expecting to settle positively. Leading chance. DJUKON (1) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last start at Randwick but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Displays very good finishing speed. Big danger. SIN TO WIN (7) Made considerable ground when 2nd three runs back at this track and has a great burst of speed late. Likely to fill a place.

Race 5:
AIN’TNODEELDUN (2) Did a good job when winning last start at Morphettville and can go through the gears. Going well this preparation winning 2 from 3 attempts. Should simply breeze past them to win. ACROPHOBIC (3) Came on strongly to finish 3rd three runs back at Randwick and looks well graded. Should just about get the run of the race. Contender. GRINZINGER LORD (8) Did well when 2nd last time at Kilmore but up in class. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Capable of forward showing and can be competitive. CONFRONTATIONAL (1) Handy enough when winning last start at Geelong but coming back in distance. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Been in the money 6 from 8 attempts this preparation. Exotics hope in this event.

Race 6:
GROUNDSWELL (2) Displayed potential when winning last start at Moonee Valley and should race on the speed. Has been a model of consistency since returning from a spell. Has to be included. TAVIDANCE (11) Proven record when resuming with 2 wins from 3 attempts. Bolted in when winning last start here but returns to a shorter trip. Will be competitive. THE DIFFERENCE (18) Finished on top last time at Morphettville and will benefit with the weight drop. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Suited. OCULAR (16) Fought on well to win two runs back at Bendigo but rising in class. Racing consistently since returning from a break. No surprise to see a win.

Race 7:
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (1) Extremely classy winner of the Epsom Derby in 2019 who has drawn perfectly here. Can win despite the big weight. SIR DRAGONET (5) Far too good in the Cox Plate and should relish the 3200m. Can do the double. TIGER MOTH (21) Lightly raced 4yo having only 5th career start and gets in well with 52.5kg. Strong chance. SURPRISE BABY (13) 4th in this race last year and looks set to peak third-up. Each way if playing.

Race 8:
PURPLE SECTOR (15) Third up today. Won by a huge margin last time at Randwick but bit of extra work to do with more weight today. Can have an impact. HOMESMAN (1) Solid effort when winning last time at Moonee Valley and shows good early pace. Chance to break through and a could give a show. JUNIPAL (6) Had a comfortable win two runs back at Caulfield but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. HARBOUR VIEWS (8) Honest race when 3rd three runs back at Moonee Valley and looks well graded. Should just about get the run of the race. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race.

Race 9:
LYRE (3) Surprising run when 6th at Moonee Valley. Does look suited and goes down in grade. Should race just behind the speed. Could take beating. CORDILLA (15) Scored a victory last time at Cranbourne and suited by the weight drop. Will be looking to sit just behind the leaders. One of the main dangers. MUSIC BAY (5) Having second run back from a break. Chimed in with a win two runs back at this course. Very strong each way claims. WILD VIXEN (2) Brave effort to win last run at Geelong and second up. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Chance in this field so include in exotics.

Race 10:
YAO DASH (15) Faded to finish 6th last time at Randwick. Should improve and will be positive in the run early. Winning hope. THE ASTROLOGIST (17) Second up from a spell. Bold effort to win last time at Geelong and gets some weight relief. Has to be included. EXHILARATES (6) Second up. Produced an eye catching run when 2nd three runs back at Doomben. Right in this. SHAMINO (9) Races well third up winning 2 from 3 runs. Rattled home nicely into 2nd two runs back at Morphettville. Should enjoy a cosy run off the pace. Meeting a good field and you can take on trust.

bet365 – Suggested Play:

Race 1: Ingratiating
Race 2: Joviality
Race 3: Hard Landing
Race 4: Yonkers
Race 5: Acrophobic
Race 6: Groundswell
Race 7: Tiger Moth
Race 8: Harbour Views
Race 9: Music Bay
Race 10: Yao Dash

Racing.com – Suggested Bets:

Race 1: Ingratiating
Race 2: Joviality, Sweet Reply, 3. Twain’s Express
Race 3: Seeress each-way
Race 4: Yonkers
Race 5: Ain’tnodeeldun, Acrophobic
Race 6: Ocular
Race 9: Cordilla

Racing.com – Matt Welsh:

Race 1:
7. Marine One, 1. Ingratiating, 9. Dosh, 8. Own The Night

Race 2:
2. Joviality, 11. Aswaat, 3. Twain’s Express, 10. Way To Go Paula

Race 3:
9. Echoes In Eternity, 1. Hard Landing, 7. Jungle Sensation, 6. Seeress

Race 4:
8. Yonkers, 13. Monmouth, 4. Vin De Dance, 7. Sin to Win

Race 5:
2. Ain’tnodeeldun, 1. Confrontational, 11. Made By Khan, 12. Miss Madec

Race 6:
3. Bravo Tango, 2. Groundswell, 15. Left Hand Man, 5. Savatoxl

Race 7:
13. Surprise Baby, 15. Russian Camelot, 12. Prince Of Arran, 23. Miami Bound

Race 8:
15. Purple Sector, 12. Galaxy Raider, 8. Harbour Views, 1. Homesman

Race 9:
3. Lyre, 5. Music Bay, 15. Cordilla, 4. Fabric

Race 10:
2. William Thomas, 17. The Astrologist, 15. Yao Dash, 6. Exhilarates

Racing.com – Matt Hill:

Race 1:
7. Marine One, 9. Dosh, 8. Own The Night, 1. Ingratiating, 2. Finance Tycoon

Race 2:
2. Joviality, 3. Twain’s Express, 11. Aswaat, 4. Sweet Reply, 6. Pride Of Jenni

Race 3:
3. Alleboom, 9. Echoes In Eternity, 6. Seeress, 1. Hard Landing, 2. Mr Moppett

Race 4:
8. Yonkers, 5. Naval Warfare, 1. Djukon, 2. Knights Order, 7. Sin to Win

Race 5:
5. Ultimate Edition, 2. Ain’tnodeeldun, 1. Confrontational, 8. Grinzinger Lord, 12. Miss Madec

Race 6:
11. Tavidance, 5. Savatoxl, 6. Outrageous, 14. Titan Blinders, 2. Groundswell

Race 8:
6. Junipal, 15. Purple Sector, 8. Harbour Views, 1. Homesman, 13. Odeon

Race 9:
15. Cordilla, 13. The Closer, 2. Wild Vixen, 6. My Pendant, 5. Music Bay

Race 10:
17. The Astrologist, 11. Excess Funds, 9. Shamino, 8. Holbien, 6. Exhilarates

Racing.com – Grace Ramage:

Race 1:
1. Ingratiating, 9. Dosh, 8. Own The Night, 7. Marine One

Race 2:
3. Twain’s Express, 10. Way To Go Paula, 2. Joviality, 5. Violinist

Race 3:
6. Seeress, 1. Hard Landing, 4. Harlem Blues, 3. Alleboo

Race 4:
8. Yonkers, 13. Monmouth, 4. Vin De Dance, 7. Sin to Win

Race 5:
2. Ain’tnodeeldun, 8. Grinzinger Lord, 12. Miss Madec, 1. Confrontational

Race 6:
2. Groundswell, 11. Tavidance, 1. Coming Around

Race 8:
15. Purple Sector, 12. Galaxy Raider, 1. Homesman, 14. Game Keeper

Race 9:
5. Music Bay, 15. Cordilla, 14. Rich Hips, 3. Lyre

Race 10:
17. The Astrologist, 9. Shamino, 15. Yao Dash, 12. Algadon Miss

Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:

Race 1:
Doubt there’s been a more impressive 2yo winner in Melbourne so far than INGRATIATING. He was simply too good for General Beau who had been an impressive winner himself 10 days earlier. They put a significant margin on 3rd. That straight track and race experience is a huge advantage in these early 2yo races. TREPORTI had jumped out well before debuting at Bendigo. That was heavy 9 ground and doubt we saw his best. That Bendigo race is often a good form lead for this. FINANCE TYCOON’s form ties in a few lengths behind INGRATIATING. MARINE ONE and DOSH looked okay at the jumpouts.
Selections: 1. Ingratiating (top tip), 4. Treporti, 7. Marine One, 9. Dosh

Race 2:
Potential is there for genuine tempo via 5, 6, 9, 10 and 12. Defaulting to the Sydney form with JOVIALITY and SWEET REPLY. One draws in, the other out. JOVIALITY is deep into her prep but this is a stable you don’t second guess. Take out the Flight run where she had excuses and her form is faultless. She’ll be sailing home out in open air. SWEET REPLY looked unlucky last time when she had her first start at 1400m. She gets the soft run behind them. TWAIN’S EXPRESS’s effort was huge at The Valley. She’s got plenty of upside and she’ll enjoy 1400m. ASWAAT can run well 1st up. 5,6,9 have claims.
Selections: 2. Joviality (top tip), 4. Sweet Reply, 3. Twain’s Express, 11. Aswaat

Race 3:
In an even race SEERESS can run very well 1st up. Her 1st-up win on the synthetic last prep was excellent. She recorded the day’s quickest closing sectionals. She then went to Moonee Valley and measured right up against speedsters who would be competitive here. HARD LANDING has the advantage of straight experience (a win). He’s unbeaten at 1000m. BIXILON appeals like what who could sit off them and be strong. His debut on dry ground was good and there are hints of form that line up to a couple of these. MR MOPPETT ran well at Randwick when a favourite. ALLEBOOM is fast and he’ll give a sight.
Selections: 6. Seeress (top tip), 1. Hard Landing, 2. Mr Moppett, 5. Bixilon

Race 4:
Chris Waller has a good record in this race and he’s well represented this year. YONKERS might be his best chance. He rounded off his prep nicely for this race by winning well at Caulfield. He’s got the upside you want in these races. If he’s a good chance, then SIN TO WIN is a danger. He gets a significant weight advantage on Yonkers through that Caulfield race. He’s ticking over well but it has been a long time since a win. MONMOUTH is flying. He relished the 3000m at MV two back then was good in his hometown cup. DJUKON (62kg?), KNIGHTS ORDER (61.5kg?), NAVAL WARFARE, JACK REGAN next.
Selections: 8. Yonkers (top tip), 7. Sin To Win, 13. Monmouth, 1. Djukon

Race 5:
AIN’TNODEELDUN, up to now, looks the most promising 3yo in this field. He blew them away at Sale recording quick time for the day before winning a good race in Adelaide. ACROPHOBIC is a strong danger. That Stan Fox 4th is good form for this. Back to dry is the key. ULTIMATE EDITION gets another go. He was also a big maiden winner two runs back before failing to cope with the rise to 2200m last time. He was too keen in that race. These lightly raced maidens are not well weighted but all show talent and a few strike dry ground for the first time. 8 and 10 in particular create interest.
Selections: 2. Ain’tnodeeldun (top tip), 3. Acrophobic, 5. Ultimate Edition, 8. Grinzinger Lord

Race 6:
Good race. There are a stack of chances. From the top the better ones could be GROUNDSWELL (gelding has been the making of him it seems), OUTRAGEOUS (trialled well, drawn well and he’s a 1st up winner here at 1400m), HEAVENLY EMPEROR (loves this track, can win if ready), TAVIDANCE (would be keener if soft but smart horse who should run well), AQUEDUCT (part of the speed but is going too well to ignore), OCULAR (looking for 1400m now, gate awkward but like with a quiet ride anyway over 1400m) and STARCASTER (huge talent who will be strong). Could easily have missed the winner.
Selections: 16. Ocular (top tip), 8. Heavenly Emperor, 2. Groundswell, 11. Tavidance

Race 7:
RUSSIAN CAMELOT’S effort in the Cox Plate was outstanding. If he comes on from that effort, he can continue the current day trend of Northern Hemisphere bred 3yos winning or running well in this race. He looked a natural stayer when he won the SA Derby back in May at just his 3rd start that prep. Fellow NH 3yo TIGER MOTH looks a star. Can he do it at just start no.5? Happy to be with him. VERRY ELLEEGANT is still untapped as a stayer. I doubt 3200m will stop her. She has such a great will to win. SURPRISE BABY was the run of the race in last year’s Cup. Concede chances to 1,6,9,12 and of course, it won’t end there.
Selections: 15. Russian Camelot (top tip), 7. Verry Elleegant, 13. Surprise Baby, 21. Tiger Moth

Race 8:
Like the placement here for HARBOUR VIEWS. He’s tried to be a Group 1 horse but at this stage he’s falling short, His 1st up effort in the Feehan (Gr2) was good. With blinkers going on and a good draw he’ll get his chance. ODEON is flying and he maps for a great run. He won this race in 2017. He has a nice weight edge on JUNIPAL, who can bounce back here. At a crucial stage he was blocked for a run in the Toorak. PURPLE SECTOR will be all the rage after winning impressively last time. If he brings that form to Melbourne, he’ll go close. In a good race, concede chances to 1, 11 and 12 too.
Selections: 8. Harbour Views (value bet), 13. Odeon, 6. Junipal, 15. Purple Sector

Race 9:
With any luck, CORDILLA could be unbeaten this prep. At Cranbourne where she drew a little wider than previous starts, she got some open air and won well with her 61kg. The mare she defeated has Probabeel form in New Zealand. LYRE has to be a strong danger. Her last 1400m start was a 4th to Probabeel in a Gr 1 beaten a length. She’s forever luckless but perhaps the 1400m tempo will help her now. Raffle the rest. WILD VIXEN won well 1st up and she has some strong 2nd-up form. Good signs for MUSIC BAY in the same race. FABRIC has had a good prep but does draw awkwardly. Could go on.
Selections: 15. Cordilla (Best of the Day), 3. Lyre, 2. Wild Vixen, 4. Fabric

Race 10:
WILLIAM THOMAS almost won the 1400m this day last year with this weight. Think he can go one better in this race. There’s every chance it’s a perfect draw for him. Every run has been good this prep. EXHILARATES had excuses 1st up. Good mares like her have a good record in this race. THE ASTROLOGIST was a brilliant winner 1st up albeit in BM64 grade but he did carry 62.5kg. CHICAGO CUB and SIRIUS SUSPECT are good straight horses who are drawn to be on speed out wide. They’ll be hard to get by. YAO DASH has Bivouac/Yes Yes Yes form on dry ground. Excess Funds next.
Selections: 2. William Thomas (top tip), 6. Exhilarates, 17. The Astrologist, 15. Yao Dash

Sportsbet – Gary Legg:

Race 7:
Best: Finche
Surprise Baby
Anthony Van Dyck
Prince of Arran
Steel Prince
Numbers: 11, 13, 1, 12, 18, 16.

Race 8:
Best: Harbour Views – will appreciate the drop in grade after solid effort in G1 behind Arcadia Queen.
Homesman – dominant when won G3 at the Valley, can only be fitter.
Odeon – was brave second in the Cranbourne Cup. Wide throughout and did all the chasing.
Numbers: 8, 1, 13.

Race 9:
Best: Cordilla – was going to win a long way out at Cranbourne. Big jump in grade, she drops 6kgs and is promising.
Lyre – far from disgraced in G1 Manikato Stakes and drops back in grade and tackles own sex only.
Rich Hips – won at Caulfield and then was last of eight, but did closed strongly last start and more tempo in this.
Fabric – honest mare close second in G3 latest, winner this track and distance.
Numbers: 15, 3, 14, 4.

Race 10:
Best: Exhilarates – wintered in Qld and was wide throughout when resuming. She will be better for the run and in the money all four starts when second-up.
The Astrologist – drops 6.5kgs after dominant win at Geelong and he has plenty of upside.
Chicago Cub – straight track specialist winning three of four here. Close up behind Coruscate latest.
Shamino – only 2.4lens behind Graff in G2 last start, when did best work late. Third-up now so should be primed.
Yao Dash – resuming, good form before a spell and two Sydney trails were strong.
Numbers: 6, 17, 10, 9, 15.

BlueBet – Cup Day Best Bets:

MELBOURNE CUP- TIGER MOTH – Race 7 No.21 (Flemington)
Exciting young stayer who fits the profile of recent cup winners. Has to contend with the wide draw but is weighted to win and gets the services of Kerrin McEvoy. Should be in the finish.

BEST – INGRATIATING – Race 1 No.1 (Flemington)
Think we can kick off the day a winner with this Godolphin colt who was ultra-impressive on debut winning this course and distance in slick time. Only has to repeat that to be winning here.

VALUE – OUTRAGEOUS – Race 6 No.6 (Flemington)
Liked what I’ve seen from him at the trials in preparation for this 1st up assignment. Has form around Groundswell last prep and maps nicely from the gate. Good play at double figures.


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