The following is a survey of Australian racing tips for Saturday, March 20. The focus is on Rosehill, which features five Group 1 races: the Ranvet Stakes (Race 4), Rosehill Guineas (Race 5), George Ryder Stakes (Race 6), Golden Slipper (Race 7) and The Galaxy (Race 8). The feature races at Mornington are also covered. More tips and previews will be added as they become available.
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These may change leading up to the race day as more tips come in.
Mornington Race 7: Mount Popa
Mornginton Race 8: Ancestry
Rosehill Race 5: Mo’unga
Rosehill Race 6: Avilius
Rosehill Race 9: She’s Ideel
MOUNT POPA (7) Third up. Showed promise when winning last start at Randwick but carrying more weight than last time. Main hope. IRISH FLAME (4) Racing for the second time this week. Good run when finishing 2nd last run at Moonee Valley. Could run a race. SAN HUBERTO (1) Having third run back from a spell. Made considerable ground when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield and easy to come into at this distance. Up to these. DEFIBRILLATE (3) Fought on well to win two runs back at Caulfield and shows very good closing speed. Strong form this campaign winning 4 from 6 starts. Worth keeping safe.
ANCESTRY (1) Won last run at Moonee Valley and should muster plenty of early toe. Expect bold showing and to run very well. SIRIUS SUSPECT (3) Proven record second up with 3 wins from 5 starts. Did a good job when winning two runs back at Flemington and ideal distance as proven previously. Better hope. FELICIA (5) Set a strong tempo when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and shows good early pace. Can’t be left out of trifectas. BROOKLYN HUSTLE (4) Started $15 and finished 8th last time at Flemington but possesses good finishing speed. Can measure up to this company.
Race 7: Mount Popa
Race 8: Sirius Suspect
Race 7: Lord Belvedere
Race 8: Felicia
SPEED: 4 may lead 7 with 2, 6 plus 1,1 0 handy? There was little between CHAPADA, DEFIBRILLATE and SAN HUBERTO over the line in the Group 1 weight-for-age Australian Cup. San Huberto was strongest late (11.96 last 200m) out of those and the race was dominated closer to the speed. NONCONFORMIST was a forgive run there. IRISH FLAME made Persan work to beat him last week. LORD BELVEDERE beat Persan when fresh in spring and gave him 3kg. MOUNT POPA’s form is easy to tie in through Shared Ambition (he was 0.5L off San Huberto in that Australian Cup). AUSSIE NUGGET is flying, 2400m an unknown.
Selections: 1. San Huberto (Value Bet – SCRATCHED), 7. Mount Popa, 5. Lord Belvedere, 2. Chapada
SPEED: 1,3 mainly from 11,10,5. The two key runners ANCESTRY and BROOKLYN HUSTLE are both acceptors for G1 MV Friday night so? ANCESTRY was a fast winner around MV last week when 2nd-up. SIRIUS SUSPECT held on well in a G1 Newmarket Hcp fresh. BROOKLYN HUSTLE was luckless though and should have beaten him home clearly for mine. FELICIA is very good at 1200m and proven fresh/ Jumped out well. BLAZE FORTH beat Mystic Journey three runs back. HIGHTAIL improves drier. HOW WOMANTIC crossed line with Ancestry in an Oakleigh Plate. Little between LAVERROD and I’M TELLING YA of late.
Selections: 1. Ancestry (Top Tip), 4. Brooklyn Hustle, 3. Sirius Suspect, 5. Felicia
7. Mount Popa, 5. Lord Belvedere, 4. Irish Flame, 2. Chapada
5. Felicia, 1. Ancestry, 11. Laverrod, 8. Hightail
Race 6: So Let’s Toast (15.00), Lofty Star (16.00, 4.20) (each way)
Race 7: Defibrillate (6.50) (win), Chapada (8.50) (win)
Race 8: Ancestry (2.60) (Win)
Race 4: 3. Maritana
Race 6: 1. Confrontational
Race 7: 7. Mount Popa
Race 8: 1. Ancestry
Race 1: 9. Andermatt
Race 2: 7. Dadoozdart
Best bet: Four Moves Ahead looks terrific value in this year’s Golden Slipper.
Exotic: Box Trifecta: 2,3,5,8,10,13
1. Four Moves Ahead
Race 9: 5. Polly Grey
1 – Four Moves Ahead (6.00), 2 – Ingratiating (17.00), 3 – Profiteer (3.80), 4 – Home Affairs (16.00)
PRIVATE EYE (4) Good win last run at this venue but resuming after a spell. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Flawless this preparation with 4 wins from 4 starts. Include in chances. ISOTOPE (5) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at Doomben and going well this preparation. Finishes off strongly. Chance to break through and a could give a show. DOUBTLAND (2) Second up. Placed 3rd three runs back at Randwick. Worth a bet. PRAGUE (1) Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd two runs back at Randwick and always seems to find the line well. Should be right in the finish.
SACRAMENTO (4) Displayed potential when winning two runs back at the track. Should muster plenty of early speed. Big danger. COLLIDE (5) Having second run back from a spell. Dashed home into 3rd last run at Randwick. Goes close. FAVORITE MOON (11) Gave nothing else a chance when winning two runs back at Haydock Park but fresh after a break. Expecting to settle just off the pace. One of the major hopes. YONKERS (10) Was fighting out the finish when winning last start at Randwick and gets a reduction in weight. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. One to watch and an each way chance.
WRITTEN BEAUTY (4) Winner two runs back at Randwick and third up today. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Winning claims. EMANATE (13) Pulled away to win two runs back here. Could take beating. VULPINE (2) Got the prize when winning last run at Randwick but rises in weight today. Likely to be well placed early. Meeting a good field and you can take on trust. EVERY ROSE (3) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at Randwick and should jump out and bowl along. Include.
ADDEYBB (1) First up. Landed the spoils when winning last run at Ascot and gets a favourable draw. A likely win. VERRY ELLEEGANT (4) Strong record when third up with 4 wins from 5 starts. Brave effort to win last run at Randwick and expected to be flashing home. This looks promising. MASTER OF WINE (2) Having second run back from a break. Not competitive when 6th last run at Randwick. Looks well placed against these and proven performer at this trip in the past. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Can feature. NETTOYER (5) Jumped at $16 and was 4L from the winner at Randwick last time on a good surface and likely to get back in the field. Among better hopes.
MO’UNGA (3) Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd last run at Randwick and shows very good closing speed. Goes close. LION’S ROAR (1) Third up today. Did a good job when winning last run at Randwick. Big danger. MONTEFILIA (11) Having second run back from a break. Landed the spoils when winning three runs back at Randwick and gets a nice run behind the speed. Deserves consideration. WHEELHOUSE (4) Winner three runs back at Randwick. Should just about get the run of the race. Market may be ultimate guide.
FUNSTAR (11) Jumped at $15 and finished 1/2L from the winner at Randwick last run on a soft surface. Looks well placed against these and won’t be far away during the run. Respect. ARCADIA QUEEN (10) Having second run back from a break. Got the cash when winning two runs back at Flemington and finishes off strongly. Definite winning chance. KOLDING (1) Nice run when 2nd two runs back at Randwick and shows good early pace. Going well this preparation. Strong hope. AVILIUS (2) Stormed home when 3rd last start at Randwick and will be motoring home late. Could prove to be very difficult to beat.
PROFITEER (2) Comprehensive victory when winning two runs back at Randwick but rising in grade. Will be positive in the run early. Looks a winning hope. STAY INSIDE (8) Spaced the field to win two runs back at Randwick but up against stronger competition. Very tidy this preparation winning 2 from 3 starts. Expected to fight out the finish. FOUR MOVES AHEAD (13) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Randwick but racing in stronger company today. Strong form this campaign winning 2 from as many starts. Gets a chance to win. ARTORIUS (3) Left nothing to chance when winning last start at Caulfield. Expected to be flashing home. Will be around the mark at odds.
HAUT BRION HER (4) Proven record when resuming with 2 wins from 3 runs. Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd last start at this venue and shows good early pace. Warrants a bet. EDUARDO (1) Fought on well to win last start at Randwick and expecting to settle positively. Should be right in the finish. WILD RULER (11) Nice effort when winning last start at Randwick and displays good tactical speed. Strong claims. TAILLEUR (13) Fought on well to win last time at Randwick and easy to come into at this distance. Warrants a bet.
SHE’S IDEEL (7) Strong record when third up with 2 wins from 3 runs. Flashed home late into 2nd last start at Randwick. Possesses very good finishing speed. Serious player. POLLY GREY (5) Ran on strongly when 3rd two runs back at this track and having third run back from a break. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Expect to go close. WELSH LEGEND (12) Racing for the second time this week. Bold effort to win last time at the track and carrying less weight this time. Warrants a bet. ATTENTION RUN (9) Goes well first up with 2 wins from 4 runs. Competitive effort when 3rd three runs back at Newcastle and gets a nice run behind the speed. Looks set to run a place.
Race 1: Doubtland
Race 2: Collide
Race 3: Emanate
Race 4: Addeybb
Race 5: Mo’unga, saving on Montefilia
Race 6: Avilius
Race 7: Stay Inside
Race 8: Tailleur
Race 9: She’s Ideel
A truly great card of racing but the weather looms large. Wednesday’s rating was Soft 6 but up to 20mm was due to fall on Thursday, at least 20mm on Friday, and then continue into raceday itself. That takes us well and truly to the Heavy range and possibly to a surface that will be problematic for many of the horses competing. Last week the rain didn’t arrive as expected; I would happily take that scenario again. Rail out 3 metres. The first is a good field of 3YOs but there’s not much speed here that’s for sure. HOLYFIELD more of a 1400m horse but this may FEEL like 1400m. BELLA NIPOTINA and PRAGUE have kicked up in the past and may do again? I’ll have ANDERMATT on the up. ISOTOPE has beaten Wild Ruler, Away Game etc… Slightly concerned about gate 1 for PRIVATE EYE.
Selections: 9. Andermatt (Top Tip), 5. Isotope, 1. Prague, 4. Private Eye
3 and 4 to lead 9 and 2. Without any concrete evidence that SACRAMENTO is a wet track duffer I’m happy to back up with him here. A defeat to Mount Popa giving that horse a bit of weight is just further evidence he is holding up great form at the moment. The only time he has seen Heavy was a respectable 5th in last year’s Derby and you would say he is a much improved horse since then. Not sure the same can be said for QUICK THINKER, who of course won that Derby. He has some improving to do but does at least get the ground on which it could come. COLLIDE peaking and through the Mount Popa race as well.
Selections: 4. Sacramento (Top Tip), 5. Collide, 1. Raheen House, 2. Quick Thinker
Solid speed from 2 and 3. 13 and 9 might have to trail in behind. I’ll be backing TAILLEUR wherever she ends up today. No signs of that decision at preview time but perhaps the low weight in the G1 is just as tempting as the clear topweight against this good bunch of girls. Her wet-track record is getting to be extensive and I remember in particular that Moonee Valley win where the ground was extremely testing. Tipping this could be a bog as well and if so she’s the one. EVERY ROSE beat home Hungry Heart last start and wasn’t far from Vangelic (who should have gone close to winning the G1 last week). WRITTEN BEAUTY was a letdown (for me) last start. Onto very wet??? I just don’t know.
Selections: 1. Tailleur (Top Tip – SCRATCHED), 3. Every Rose, 2. Vulpine, 4. Written Beauty
Definitely a case of a small field having as much appeal as a large one. And clearly – look, I know this is always a bit risky to say but SURELY it applies here – a race in two. We all like and admire VERRY ELLEEGANT and a key part of that is the knowledge she is seemingly always up for a fight. Well, she’s got one here again because her old rival (and yes I think even though they’ve only met twice the term does apply) ADDEYBB is back to keep his record intact. Renowned as one of the best wet-trackers in the country is VERRY ELLEEGANT and I’m not here to quarrel about that, but she has raced on Heavy only once in the last two years and on that occasion ADDEYBB had her done by 3L. Can’t wait for this one.
Selections: 1. Addeybb (Top Tip), 4. Verry Elleegant, 2. Master Of Wine, 5. Nettoyer
9 to lead from 5, 2 and 4. The key leadup at Randwick was on Good going and this promises to be evry different but both MO’UNGA (who was clearly a luckless runner-up) and LION’S ROAR won their debuts on Heavy so there is real hope that they will cope with a drastic change is conditions. Add to the mix lone filly MONTEFILIA who had no issue with heavy winter going last year and whose return – despite her being strongly backed into $6 – was every bit as good as many expected and a great return for something like this. Absolutely she can win. KHOEKHOE worth some thought as well. Handles soft and returned nicely.
Selections: 3. Mo’unga (Top Tip), 1. Lion’s Roar, 11. Montefilia, 6. Khoekhoe
DREAMFORCE (absolutely NOT a wettie) and SAMADOUBT (hardly a massive fan either) can lead if here. DAWN PASSAGE will be some odds here and, granted, he does need a lift from what he offered a fortnight ago but his Golden Eagle run here on very heavy ground stays in my mind and I can imagine him getting through this going better than most. FUNSTAR was in that Golden Eagle as well and despite having a bigger wet track reputation she couldn’t deal with it. AVILIUS is 2 from 2 on Heavy of course. Is the one that breaks his losing run? And this is really is cold comfort for ARCADIA QUEEN. Hardly a reward for being excluded from the All-Star Mile, this promises to be every bit as wet as it ended up at the Valley anyway.
Selections: 8. Dawn Passage (Value Bet), 11. Funstar, 6. Cascadian, 2. Avilius
Conditions to play a big part obviously; fancy there will be some fancied horses that fail to fire here because of the going. Speed from 2 and 10, with 12 and 1 sitting handy. I’m with STAY INSIDE, a colt that raced away on Soft 7 two back then simply got too far back and had limited room last start behind Anamoe/Profiteer. I see things coming together better for him today. FOUR MOVES AHEAD might be a touch further back than she has been in her two wins but her ability to handle wet is a positive. ANAMOE, ARTORIUS and PROFITEER are easy to find on form but could strike ground that is nothing like what they’ve experienced.
Selections: 8. Stay Inside (Top Tip), 13. Four Moves Ahead, 3. Artorius, 10. O’president
9 and 13 have other options but both in the mix if they choose this. EDUARDO is super speedy and can hold all others at bay. Performed really well on wet through last winter and a ‘fair and square’ defeat of Nature Strip coming inn is not to be sneezed at. That said, I am willing to choose the mare TAILLEUR down the bottom with a seven kilo pull on the toppie. Can see her getting a gun trail and we know she revels in what ever type of wet ground we end up with. BELLA VELLA is a G1 winner on Soft 7 and has a chance to place if here instead of MV. JUNGLE EDGE ever-popular and the most renowned mudlark in the country but in this company at this stage of his career…..I can have him running well but I’d be surprised if he won.
Selections: 13. Tailleur (Best of the Day), 1. Eduardo, 9. Bella Vella, 8. Splintex
14 + 3 emergencies in the last. How’s this ground by now?? After what MISSYBEEL did last start we fully expect she will be pressing on again. 11 is an on-pacer if she shows up on the quick turnaround. Handy sit 15, 17, 13. These wide draws for mares like SHE’S IDEEL and POLLY GREY could in fact be just what is required at the end of this meeting, and both are accomplished wet-trackers well poised 3rd-up rising to the suitable 1900m. OUTBACK DIVA new to the trip but she is a consistent girl that at least creates some interest. Hope we got through!
Selections: 7. She’s Ideel (Top Tip), 5. Polly Grey, 10. Outback Diva, 4. Aliferous
Junior’s Tip: Verry Elleegant (2.15) (win)
Jack’s Tip: Verry Elleegant (2.15) (win)
Junior’s Tip: Mo’unga (2.60) (win)
Jack’s Tip: Mo’unga (2.60) (win)
Junior’s Tip: Avilius (4.20) (win)
Jack’s Tip: Junipal (15.00, 4.00) (each way)
Jack’s Tip: O’president (11.00)
Junior’s Tip: Four Moves Ahead (5.50), Rocket Tiger (61.00, 14.00) (roughie)
Junior’s Tip: Tailleur (4.80)
Jack’s Tip: Haut Brion Her (4.80) (win)
Race 3 #2 Vulpine (9.50) – VALUE BET
Race 5 #3 Mo’unga (2.80) – LAY BET
Race 6 #2 Avilius (3.70) – BEST BET
Race 7: Race 7 #10 O’president (11.00)
Race 5 – 9 Here To Shock (51.00) – LONG SHOT
Race 6 – 2 Avilius (4.00) – BEST BET