State of Origin Game I – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game I of the 2021 State of Origin Series.

2021 State of Origin Schedule

Due to the Covid outbreak in Melbourne, Game I has been moved from the MCG to Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville.

Game I – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Wednesday, 9 June, 8:10 PM AEST

Game II – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Sunday, 27 June, 7:50 PM AEST

Game III – Stadium Australia, Sydney
Wednesday, 14 July, 8:10pm AEST

2020 Series Recap

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
NSW 14-18 QLD

In a game of two halves the Blues led 10-0 at halftime but were outscored 4-18 in the second spell. Both sides scored three tries but Daly Cherry-Evans made all three conversions for Queensland while Nathan Cleary made just one of three for NSW.

Game 2 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney
NSW 34-10 QLD

After conceding the first try, NSW went on to dominate Game II by winning the first half 18–4 and the second half 16–6. Nathan Cleary responded well to criticism following Game I by putting in a commanding performance with the boot. Queensland’s cause wasn’t helped by the loss of five-eighth Cameron Munster to a head knock in the 2nd minute. They kept losing possession and it took some desperate defence to prevent the scoreline from blowing out further.

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
QLD 20-14

Cameron Munster passed the required concussion protocols and was declared fit to play, which had a huge impact on the result. Munster put in a man of the match performance and also received the Wally Lewis Medal. This was despite only playing two minutes of Game 2. The Blues had suffered a hammer blow 20 minutes into the game. Captain James Tedesco left the field due to a concussion, which forced an awkward positional reshuffle.

Queensland’s 2-1 series win was against the odds. They blooded 14 debutants in total, including four in the decider. It broke a streak of two series wins for NSW.

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-9 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 21-7 in Brisbane.

2021 State of Origin Game I Squads

Queensland

The Queensland squad was released alphabetically so the positions are a best guess.

1. Valentine Holmes, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Kurt Capewell, 5. Kyle Feldt, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. David Fifita, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Jai Arrow
Interchange: 14. AJ Brimson 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Jaydn Su’A
Reserves: 18. Coen Hess, 19. Reed Mahoney
Coach: Paul Green

After pulling off an upset series win last year, coach Wayne Bennett vacated the Queensland coaching role to focus on South Sydney’s 2021 NRL campaign. Paul Green was named as Bennett’s replacement in February and is making his Origin coaching debut for Queensland. He’s the former head coach of the North Queensland Cowboys (2014-20).

Green’s task has been made harder by the suspension of prop Josh Papali’i and the groin injury to fullback Kalyn Ponga. Lindsay Collins, Brenko Lee and Corey Allan are also out injured. Harry Grant (hamstring) and AJ Brimson (knee) are still under injury clouds. The latest news is that Cameron Munster is fit to play, however Dange Gagai reportedly missed a training session due to illness, which has cast doubt on his availability.

In Kalyn Ponga’s absence, Valentine Holmes is expected to play at fullback with Kyle Feldt making his Origin debut on the wing.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Jake Trbojevic, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Jack Wighton, 15. Junior Paulo, 16. Payne Haas, 17. Liam Martin
Reserves: 18. Api Koroisau, 19. Campbell Graham, Keaon Koloamatangi
Coach: Brad Fittler

The Blues squad selection was impacted by the unavailability of Boyd Cordner (concussion), Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion), Victor Radley (suspension), Angus Crichton (suspension) and Tyson Frizell (ankle). Panthers winger Brian To’o makes his Origin debut as a reward for his excellent start to the NRL season. Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic return to the centres after missing the 2020 Origin series. Jarome Luai has won the No. 6 jersey ahead of Jack Wighton. He will link up with Panthers teammate Nathan Cleary in the halves.

Queensland Country Bank Stadium history

The State of Origin has never visited Townsville before. This creates an interesting dynamic because it’s not neutral territory yet it’s not the fortress that is Suncorp Stadium

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Townsville weather forecast for Wednesday is a temperature range of 17-27 with a 5% chance of rain.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin bookmaker odds in the odds comparison section.

Series Betting

NSW are 1.58 (Unibet) favourites to win the series while Queensland are 2.62 (bet365) underdogs.

Going back to 2003, 17 of the 18 Origin series were won by 2-1 scorelines. For this reason the pairing of NSW 2-1 at 2.30 (bet365) and QLD 2-1 at 3.20 (bet365) holds strong appeal.

Game Betting

Game I odds and markets can be viewed here.

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game I are:

Queensland: 2.55 (bet365)
New South Wales: 1.54 (Sportsbet, Unibet)

The Blues are 4.5-point favourites with most bookmakers at the time of writing.

Match Result

NSW on paper have the superior backline so they should relish the dry conditions in Townsville. They will also benefit from the in-form halves pairing of Panthers teammates Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. The Blues are also bolstered by the returns of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic after they missed out on last year’s series. Brad Fittler has learned from last year’s series defeat and has named a Blues side with better versatility to cover for the loss of any particular player. Fittler has the advantage of going up against a Queensland coach with no Origin coaching experience.

In the Queensland’s favour is the home support of the Townsville crowd and the presence of Cameron Munster, who was immense in last season’s series win. They also have a strong recent track record of punching above their weight, having won the last two Game I’s where they were installed as the underdog. Queensland also won Game III as the clear underdog last year.

Overall, I’m leaning towards a NSW victory. Queensland won’t have the benefit of a Wayne Bennett halftime talk if they find themselves in a 10-0 hole like they did in Game I last year. I have too much respect for Queensland on home soil so I will steer clear of the Blues at the -4.5 line and will back them in the head-to-head.

Back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.54 (Sportsbet, Unibet)

Total Score

Game I tends to have the lowest total of the series. Since 2000, the average Game I total was 32.3 and since 2011 it was just 25.4. None of the last ten Origin Game I’s went over 34 points. One caveat to these stats is the six-again rule, which was introduced in 2020. Looking at NRL data, the total average score across 2020 and 2021 is 43.3, compared to 40.8 between 2009 and 2019. While the new rules have inflated NRL totals, two of the three Origin games last year went under the long-term averages. Also, the inflation in NRL scores doesn’t cover the ten-point gap between the long-term Game I average and the bookmakers’ total set for this match. Looking back at betting data, nine of the last ten Origin Game I’s went under the total as punters most likely relied too heavily on NRL rather than Origin data when betting on this market.

Back Under 42.5 at 1.90 (Sportsbet) – BEST BET

Let’s hope we get a great game. Best of luck punters!