The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Saturday, November 13. The focus is on the race cards at Cranbourne and Newcastle. The feature at Cranbourne is the Cranbourne Cup (Race 7), while the headline race at Newcastle is The Hunter (Race 8).
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
These bets may change leading up to the race day.
Cranbourne Race 2: 2. Station One at 1.55 (bet365)
Cranbourne Race 4: 3. Real Sensation at 3.70 (BlueBet, Sportsbet, Unibet)
Cranbourne Race 5: 2. Belle Plaisir (value) at 15.00 (bet365)
Cranbourne Race 8: 3. Mankayan at 3.60 (Sportsbet)
Newcastle Race 2: 2. Ma And Pa at 2.90 (BlueBet, Sportsbet, Unibet)
Newcastle Race 8: 1. Lost And Running at 2.80 (WinnersBet)
Newcastle Race 9: 11. Norwegian Bliss at 3.40 (bet365)
Newcastle Race 10: 6. Gravina at 2.45 (BlueBet)
Cranbourne Quaddie: 2,4/1,10,11/3/1,4,5,8
Newcastle Quaddie: 4,10/1,2/11/6
Cranbourne
Race 1:
YOU ESS ESS ARE (12) Initial appearance for Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young 2yo by Russian Revolution. Price is very tempting. EL PADRINO (2) Ciaron Maher and David Eustace 2yo runner on debut by Street Boss. Blinkers on could be an important change. Should run into the placings at least. GREYT MUMMA (8) Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman 2yo debutant by Capitalist. Should be in the finish. TAUT YOU COULD (6) O’lonhro 2yo on debut for trainer Greg Eurell and will try to take advantage of the gate. Could run into the placings.
Race 2:
BLUSHING TYCOON (1) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Flemington and displays good tactical speed. Blinkers off could be an important change. Stand out selection. STATION ONE (2) Chimed in with a win two runs back at this track and goes down in weight. Capable of taking this out. THE AMAZONIAN (3) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd three runs back at this course and gets some weight taken off today. Should just about get the run of the race. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Suited. TOROPEAK (5) Finished 3rd last time at Moe and drawn nicely. On a short turnaround. Can feature.
Race 3:
SCISSOR STEP (1) Rocketed home into 2nd last time at Moonee Valley but rising in weight. Gets a nice run behind the speed. Should go well. JIGSAW (3) Forgive the run when 10th at Caulfield. Should improve today but has more weight to carry. Trainer has gone for the winkers on, take note. Definite winning chance. RIDUNA (7) Won narrowly three runs back at Wyong. Keep in mind. HE’S XCEPTIONAL (2) Looked good when 3rd two runs back at Moonee Valley and goes down in class. Could run into the placings.
Race 4:
REAL SENSATION (3) Produced an eye catching run when 2nd two runs back at Horsham and third up from a spell. Possesses good finishing speed. Appears as a winning threat. OUR LONE STAR (4) Came on strongly when 3rd last time at Bendigo and second up. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Better claims. LYRICAL LAD (5) Nice run when placing 2nd three runs back at this course and having third run back from a spell. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the pace. Right in this. MAGNUS BELLAGIO (7) Was fighting out the finish when winning last run at Kilmore and carrying less weight this time. One for the trifectas and first fours in this race.
Race 5:
APRIL RAIN (6) Ran on strongly when 2nd two runs back at Rosehill and drops back to a suitable class. Having third run back from a spell. Surprise if it doesn’t win with room to spare. MAYBE THE BEST (10) Led and controlled the pace to win by 1 1/4L last run at Bendigo and can find a nice position from the draw. Should jump out and bowl along. Live winning chance. PAUL’S REGRET (4) Did its best work late when 3rd last start at Flemington and will appreciate the drop in class. Can measure up to this company. BRAZEN SONG (3) Finished on top three runs back at the track. Likely to be well placed early. Worth an each way bet in this.
Race 6:
DEXELATION (2) Game effort to win last start at Moonee Valley and having third run back from a break. Flying this campaign with 2 wins from as many starts. Will go well. BLESS HER (4) Caught the eye when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Appears well in this. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) Rocketed home into 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and first up specialist. Should get going late. Winning prospect. HUFFINGTON (6) Brave effort to win three runs back at Morphettville and carrying less weight this time. Worth keeping safe.
Race 7:
OUR PLAYBOY (11) Fought on gamely when winning last time at Flemington and third up today. Always seems to find the line well. Ticks plenty of boxes and looks like value. BUFFALO RIVER (1) Won two runs back at Caulfield but rising in weight. Displays good tactical speed. Betting may be best guide to the chances and each way is the likely play. KING MAGNUS (10) Came on strongly when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield but has more weight to carry. Finishes off strongly. Chance for exotics punters. AGE OF CHIVALRY (3) Brave effort to win last time at Flemington but will have to carry extra weight today. Third up from a spell. Very strong each way claims.
Race 8:
MANKAYAN (3) Kept chasing when 2nd last time at Flemington but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Well suited and should prove hard to beat. NOBEL HEIGHTS (9) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Geelong and suited by the weight drop. Better claims. ACCOUNTABILITY (5) Displayed potential when winning three runs back at Kembla Grange but going up in weight. Has the ability to figure. BRILLIANT VENTURE (13) Showed promise when winning last run at this course and will benefit with the weight drop. One of the major hopes.
Race 9:
CAMBOURNE (8) Looked good when 2nd two runs back at Benalla but coming back in trip today. Tracking very well this preparation. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) Won by a huge margin two runs back at Morphettville. Resumes after a break. Has the ability to figure. THE GENERAL (1) Looked good when 3rd last run at Kyneton and won’t be far away during the run. Racing consistently since returning from a break. One at a bit of odds. SWEET SIXTEEN (14) Charged home into 3rd three runs back at Flemington and second up. Possesses very good closing speed. Chance for exotics punters.
Race 1: Greyt Mumma
Race 2: Blushing Tycoon
Race 3: Scissor Step
Race 4: Real Sensation
Race 5: Belle Plaisir
Race 6: Excess Funds
Race 7: Aramayo
Race 8: Mankayan
Race 9: High ‘N’ Dry
Race 3: 1. Scissor Step and/or 2. He’s Xceptional
Race 5: 6. April Rain win + quinella with 10. Maybe The Best
Race 6: 4. Bless Her, while 7. Sir Kalahad is value
Race 8: 3. Mankayan
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
PRARIE FLOWER had plenty against her on debut and ran OK considering. EL PADRINO jumped out well in useful time but draws wide. TAUT YOU COULD went nicely. YOU ESS ESS ARE won a jumpout well on Monday and ran much faster time than El Padrino. GREYT MUMMA led clearly in her heat and wasn’t knocked about when VALENCONI went by her late.
Selections: 12. You Ess Ess Are (Top Tip), 8. Greyt Mumma, 7. Valenconi, 6. Taut You Could
Race 2:
BLUSHING TYCOON fought hard at Flemington, splitting two promising three-year-olds. It looks the right form but he does come up to 60kg and STATION ONE (who faded badly that same race at Flemington) has a 5.5kg swing. His debut win on wet was good. THE AMAZONIAN had little luck last time in a race where Maracana ran third. That ties in the form with that Flemington race referenced above. TOROPEAK perhaps next.
Selections: 1. Blushing Tycoon (Top Tip), 2. Station One, 3. The Amazonian, 5. Toropeak
Race 3:
Not sure leader, most can race handy. SCISSOR STEP gave the smart Generation a scare at The Valley and beat third easily. HE’S XCEPTIONAL was a forgive run there (tongue over bit) and fancy he beats Minsk Moment/Port Louis here prior with even luck. That turned out good form. JIGSAW failed last time but clearly has a case on his second to He’s Xceptional at MV. RIDUNA has run into two smart fillies her last couple, back to 1200m now. XTRA GEAR back around a bend has a case. TRUE NOBILITY made ground at MV behind Marine One.
Selections: 1. Scissor Step (Top Tip), 2. He’s Xceptional, 7. Riduna, 3. Jigsaw
Race 4:
SPEED: 2,10 may lead 7 from 5? Alas, 9, 11, 12 are (key) dual acceptors. LOFTY STAR has been freshened and is back to 1500m but has never seen wet. REAL SENSATION made good ground in $500,000 Country Final at Flemington and looks ready but comes back 100m. OUR LONE STAR made a solid return, 1500m suits. LYRICAL LAD was wide last time and that ties in the Country Final form. Wary OCEANS OF STANIMA. MANASA goes close if here and if handles wet. THE SENTINEL has upside. AUDREY GIRL comes back from the Group 2 Wakeful to Class 3, and can win … if here?
Selections: 3. Real Sensation (Value Bet), 12. Audrey Girl, 2. Lofty Star, 9. Manasa
Race 5:
SPEED: 3 and 10 can lead 4, who may get a rails trail. APRIL RAIN was beaten by a good one fresh then luckless at Flemington. She likes wet ground. PAUL’S REGRET beat April Rain home last time and there were positive signs she might be back to her best. That ties in BELLE PLAISIR obviously. Like the form around MAYBE THE BEST. STANDOFF looks ready to win. BRAZEN SONG gave a huge sight last week. Any leader bias here?
Selections: 6. April Rain (Best of the Day), 10. Maybe The Best, 4. Paul’s Regret, 5. Standoff
Race 6:
SPEED: 7, 8 & 9 with 5, 4 up there. BLESS HER chased hard fresh then battled up the straight last time. Back around a bend here and back on to wet are the big ticks. SIR KALAHAD is a very good wet-tracker but has never won at 1000m. He did beat DEXELATION easily back in July on heavy ground, at 1200m. Dexelation is flying this prep though. I AM SOMEONE a value swooper? HUFFINGTON has Dexelation form. BLAZEJOWSKI is a ripper but 1000m with 60kg might be too much?
Selections: 4. Bless Her (Top Tip), 7. Sir Kalahad, 2. Dexelation, 3. I Am Someone
Race 7:
Speed looks good. BUFFALO RIVER held on OK in the G1 Cantala, a swoopers’ race. ARAMAYO beat him home and he also raced close to that strong speed. AGE OF CHIVALRY is back in the good books, he did run very well in the 2020 Cantala off a wide run remember. LUNAR FOX wasn’t far way in a fast Toorak Handicap. He has gone up BIG odds! JUSTACANTA is flying! HARBOUR VIEWS a hope but draws wide. OUR PLAYBOY also draws out but is unbeaten at 1600m and loves wet ground. NO EFFORT can win. KING MAGNUS is another in-form horse.
Selections: 11. Our Playboy (Top Tip), 3. Age Of Chivalry, 5. Lunar Fox
Race 8:
SPEED: 1 looks the leader from 3, 9, 2, 12? MANKAYAN made Great House work to beat him in the Hotham at Flemington and that horse was coming off a good effort in a Caulfield Cup. ACCOUNTABILITY beat Mankayan back in September. NOBEL HEIGHTS won well Geelong, not 100% sure wet ground is all. BLANDFORD LAD’s last two have been good. BRILLIANT VENTURE beat him last time. BRAWL tries 2500m. It looks OK and he has the upside. STARCASTER will give a sight. CONSTANTINOPLE is going better than the form guide says. ROYAL CROWN value improver?
Selections: 3. Mankayan (Top Tip), 1. Starcaster, 12. Brawl, 2. Constantinople
Race 9:
Speed good on paper. IMPERIAL HILTON is unbeaten fresh. HIGH ‘N’ DRY found the line nicely fresh and has won twice second up. NAVAL ENVOY gave a sight at Flemington in the greys race with ADDRESS MELBOURNE not far off him. MR ROGER has been kept fresh since a good return win. CAMBOURNE had a slow recovery rate last start. SWEET SIXTEEN produced a race-fastest last 200m in an on-pacers’ race at Sale and her Standoff form ties in that greys race. FRANKIE TWO ANGELS a hope. Gate?
Selections: 14. Sweet Sixteen (Top Tip), 5. Naval Envoy, 4. High ‘n’ Dry, 3. Imperial Hilton
Race 1:
12. You Ess Ess Are, 5. Jamarra, 2. El Padrino, 10. Prairie Flower
Race 2:
2. Station One, 1. Blushing Tycoon, 5. Toropeak, 3. The Amazonian
Race 3:
1. Scissor Step, 3. Jigsaw, 5. Big Apple, 9. Video
Race 4:
3. Real Sensation, 5. Lyrical Lad, 2. Lofty Star, 4. Our Lone Star
Race 5:
2. Belle Plaisir, 6. April Rain, 10. Maybe The Best, 3. Brazen Song
Race 6:
2. Dexelation, 1. Blazejowski, 7. Sir Kalahad, 4. Bless Her
Race 7:
18. Mystery Shot, 10. King Magnus, 17. Imperial Lad, 8. In a Twinkling
Race 8:
3. Mankayan, 13. Brilliant Venture, 12. Brawl
Race 9:
13. Staredown, 7. Redsnap, 12. Frankie Two Angels, 5. Naval Envoy
Race 1:
Not much to get excited about from the raced and so it’s off to the jump outs in search of the best chances. Think the pick of them is GREYT MUMMA (8) who was run down in a Mornington jump out but was given an easy time of it after showing nice pace. Has a big profile for this. YOU ESS ESS ARE (12) showed nice pace here and must be respected kicking off on the home track. EL PADRINO (2) and TAUT YOU COULD (6) are others to have shown some ability at the jump outs. The latter is another home track debutante who looks targetted at this. VALENCONI (7) beat Greyt Mumma and that has to be respected.
Selections: 8. Greyt Mumma (top tip), 12. You Ess Ess Are, 2. El Padrino, 6. Taut You Could
Race 2:
BLUSHING TYCOON (1) was good at Caulfield in a race that has worked out and then even better at Flemington last time at 1800. Moved through to win there but was knocked off late by a promising one. Looks to land in the first couple here and is a clear cut top pick. Through the same race STATION ONE (2) should get a softer time of things and bounce back to form. Led and folded at Flemington but far easier now. Similar scenario for THE AMAZONIAN (3) who was tracking well before being well beaten in the Fillies Classic at the Valley. Soft track mile there. Things are different this time. SACRED COVE (4) comes right up in class but best effort to date last time and can improve again.
Selections: 1. Blushing Tycoon (top tip), 2. Station One, 3. The Amazonian, 4. Sacred Cove
Race 3:
SCISSOR STEP (1) was among those beaten a long way in the Blue Sapphire but was quickly back in top form when chasing a smart one around the Valley last time. Slick race and that form looks to sit above what he faces this time. Think he breaks through. JIGSAW (3) comes back to his home track after a plain one at Caulfield. Better suited at this level and tipped to go well. RIDUNA (7) is another that will find this easier having bumped into a couple of future stars in her latest outings. Back to 1200m won’t hurt. HE’S XCEPTIONAL (2) was a listed winner early in the spring. Below that latest but in the right race on his home deck now.
Selections: 1. Scissor Step (top tip), 3. Jigsaw, 7. Riduna, 2. He’s Xceptional
Race 4:
REAL SENSATION (3) ran really well first up behind a promising one and then wasn’t far away in the Country Series Final at Flemington where that first up formline held up well enough. Looks a good piece of form for this and he appeals as the clear horse to beat. Danger is OUR LONE STAR (4) who ran well first up from a break behind a handy winner who controlled things from the front. Going to take a step forward now and races like this are well within range. LYRICAL LAD (5) comes through a hot race at Sale. Time there was strong and the form has worked out. MAGNUS BELLAGIO (7) and MISTER ME (10) are others to consider.
Selections: 3. Real Sensation (top tip), 4. Our Lone Star, 5. Lyrical Lad, 7. Magnus Bellagio
Race 5:
Little doubt that the top pick is APRIL RAIN (6) and she is sure to be popular having had no luck at all when well fancied at Flemington last time. Back and held up at a key stage there. Just about should have won when resuming as well. Due some luck and draws to get the right run for a gun jock this time. Through the same race BELLE PLAISIR (2) can have a good chance of knocking April Rain off. Ran well there having made a solid start for this yard at Geelong. Still has upside and can peak here third up. MAYBE THE BEST (10) might be one to go right on with it now that she has broken through. Always been well regarded. PAUL’S REGRET (4) is another through the key Flemington form reference. She was good there and no reason to think she doesn’t run well again.
Selections: 6. April Rain (top tip), 2. Belle Plaisir, 10. Maybe The Best, 4. Paul’s Regret
Race 6:
Liked the way that EXCESS FUNDS (5) went through the line when resuming. Pulled up with excuses and tipped straight out after one run last prep but clearly back in good order based on the Valley return and give him a good chance of finding his best now and knocking these off. Has to turn the tables on DEXELATION (2) from the Valley. He’s found career best form now and has to be hard to beat again. Not much luck for BLESS HER (4) at Flemington and a couple of runs prior had been terrific. Ratings are great for this if she can bounce straight back. 1000m might be a touch sharp for BLAZEJOWSKI (1) but respect him here on his home track for a yard that would be targetting a race named after their former champ.
Selections: 5. Excess Funds (top tip), 2. Dexelation, 4. Bless Her, 1. Blazejowski
Race 7:
Deep and interesting Cup. ARAMAYO (4) wasn’t far away in the Cantala last time, and that gives him a chance, but it’s his form in Sydney prior that really stands out. Ran well behind Zaaki in the Tramway and strong through the line when second in an Epsom. That’s great form for this. OUR PLAYBOY (11) will be loving any rain that is around. Loves the wet and he was as good as ever last week. Wide draw but think he wants to be out in clear air. So does BUFFALO RIVER (1) who wants to roll along and he is another that will be rain dancing. Going to have plenty of company on pace but he’s a good horse. So is KING MAGNUS (10) who keeps fronting up and running big races. Did that again in the Cantala and no reason to think he drops away now. AGE OF CHIVALRY (3) snapped a drought last week. Has a hope on the back up.
Selections: 4. Aramayo (top tip), 11. Our Playboy, 1. Buffalo River, 10. King Magnus
Race 8:
MANKAYAN (3) leaps off the page a bit coming through the Hotham last time. Tracked a strong pace there and moved through to win the race before being picked off late on in a fast overall time. Big effort and one that rates highly against these. Think he can replicate that form here and that should be good enough. NOBEL HEIGHTS (9) needs to come up a notch or two to match him but is heading the right way and is respected off a win. ACCOUNTABILITY (5) has found his form and strung good efforts together. Well placed again here, as are BRILLIANT VENTURE (13) and TRUE MARVEL (17) who are others racing in good form lately.
Selections: 3. Mankayan (top tip), 9. Nobel Heights, 5. Accountability, 13. Brilliant Venture
Race 9:
Really liked the return of HIGH ‘N’ DRY (4) who looks set for a big summer campaign and he can mount that on the back of a win here. He was a second up winner last time around and, while that was over a mile, a strongly run 1300m should work for him. CAMBOURNE (8) ran a plain one last time but he is better than that. Solid two back and the fresh run says he is right up to winning here. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) and THE GENERAL (1) are both racing well enough to get involved and D’JUMBUCK (9) should be coming to his peak third up. Has each way claims.
Selections: 4. High ‘N’ Dry (top tip), 8. Cambourne, 3. Imperial Hilton, 1. The General
Unibet – From The Traders’ Desk:
Race 4 #12 Audrey Girl (12.00) (VALUE BET)
Race 7 #1 Buffalo River (7.50)
Newcastle
Race 8: 1. Prime Candidate (17.00), 2 – Lost And Running (3.20), 3 – Gem Song (17.00)
Race 1:
UNCORKED (9) Pierro 2yo on debut for trainer Adrian Bott & Gai Waterhouse. Holds a major chance. VANCOUVER’S CROWN (4) 2yo debutant sired by Vancouver for trainer Jason Coyle. Each way. RUSSIAN CONQUEST (8) Russian Revolution 2yo trained by Peter Snowden & Paul Snowden on debut. Winning chance. MATISSE’S COMET (7) Your Song 2yo having first race appearance for trainer Gary Nickson. Respect the betting.
Race 2:
MA AND PA (2) Led throughout to win by 1 1/4L last run at Rosehill and should be going forward early. Going well this campaign winning 4 from as many starts. Rates a winning chance. SACRED COMMAND (10) Game effort to win three runs back at Goulburn and gets a reduction in weight. Ready to win. CISCO BAY (1) Kept finding the line when 3rd three runs back at Randwick and back from a freshen up. Possesses good closing speed. Strong chance. PRINCE OF ARRAGON (3) Jumped at $26 and came in 8th last run at Goulburn but second up from a break. Expected to settle towards the tail. Modest chance for multis.
Race 3:
CEASEFIRE (2) Won three runs back at Scone and goes down in weight. Will give a big sight. CASINO KID (5) Did its best work late when 2nd three runs back at Randwick and third up today. Expected to be flashing home. Must respect in this event. RAOUL (8) Left nothing to chance when winning three runs back at Scone and dropping weight today. Market watch advised and can run into the money. TESTATOR SILENS (18) Did a good job when winning two runs back at Wagga. Having third run back from a break. Goes very close.
Race 4:
CREAM RISES (8) Finished more than 3L behind the winner at Rosehill last run on a good surface. Expected to be flashing home. Respect against this field. TAMPERING (4) Ran on strongly when 5th last run at Rosehill and likely to be well placed early. Very competitive this preparation. Capable of getting into the money. HIGHLY DESIRED (5) Bold effort to win two runs back at Goulburn and third up from a spell. Should muster plenty of early toe. Major hope. HARVEY’S WAY (13) Was first to greet the judge when winning last start around here and will appreciate a good gate. Respect against this field.
Race 5:
MIGHTYBEEL (3) Nice effort when winning two runs back at Randwick and James Mcdonald rates highly. Going well this preparation. Could take beating. LOVE TAP (1) Scored a victory three runs back at Kembla Grange but rising in weight. Nash Rawiller is a suitable jockey booking. Appears well in this. MA AND PA (5) Was much too speedy in front to win by 1 1/4L last run at Rosehill and expecting to settle positively. Strong form this campaign winning 4 from as many starts. Big danger. SHIBLI (6) Finished on top last run at Rosehill and backs up quickly today. Very competitive this campaign. Winnable race.
Race 6:
KING’S CHARISMA (4) At $5.5 came in 5th last time at Flemington. Expecting improvement. Classy enough for this field and is one of the major players. SHARED AMBITION (1) Peaked on the run when 2nd three runs back at Randwick. Should muster plenty of early speed. Well suited and should prove hard to beat. KISS THE BRIDE (3) Hit the line well when 3rd last run at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Will be competitive. HUSH WRITER (7) Ended up over 6L behind the winner at Randwick last start on a good track. Looking for an improved run. Has shown early pace in races to date. Suited.
Race 7:
FESTIVAL DANCER (10) Showed a clean pair of heels to win by a margin of nearly 5 1/2L last time at Goulburn and won’t be far away during the run. Racing consistently this campaign. Warrants a bet. ARNAQUEUR (4) Improved when 5th last run at Randwick. Will be hitting the line strongly. Keep in mind. DUFRESNE (1) Landed the spoils when winning three runs back at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Likely to be well placed early. Worth strong consideration. LEASE (2) Good result placing 2nd last start at Randwick and gets some weight taken off today. Should muster plenty of early speed. Trainer has gone for the blinkers off, take note. Worth keeping safe.
Race 8:
LOST AND RUNNING (1) Put in a competitive run when placing 2nd last time at Rosehill but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Can get the job done. TOP RANKED (2) Came in 2nd two runs back at Windsor and change in trainer to Annabel Neasham. Should be ready to fire fresh with 5 wins from 5 starts. Will be in the finish. BANDERSNATCH (5) Won by a big margin last start at Randwick but resuming from a spell. Displays good tactical speed. Winnable race. GEM SONG (3) Brave effort to win two runs back at the track and can save some energy from the alley. Resumes after a spell. Chance.
Race 9:
NORWEGIAN BLISS (11) Fought on well to win last run at Canterbury and shows good early pace. Strong form this preparation winning 3 from as many starts. Hard to overlook. FASHCHANEL (3) Was average finishing 8th last time at Rosehill. Should improve today. Having third run back from a break. Major player. TINKER MCPHEE (5) Didn’t find the line when 8th last start at Warwick Farm. Fresh after a break. Good prospect for the exotics at least. ZOU DE MOON (10) Was much too speedy in front to win by a margin of 1 1/2L last run at Scone and third up. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many attempts. Betting may be best guide to the chances and each way is the likely play.
Race 10:
GRAVINA (6) Kept finding the line when 3rd last run at Randwick. Honest enough customer who is strongly placed. KATALIN (12) Won narrowly last start at Rosehill and carrying less weight this time. Having second run back from a break. Looks a winning hope. EDIT (8) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Tamworth. Possesses good closing speed. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. ACQUITTED (3) Placed 3rd two runs back at Sandown and change in trainer to Kris Lees. Racing fresh today after a break. Genuine threat.
Race 1: Uncorked
Race 2: Ma And Pa
Race 3: Ceasefire
Race 5: Mightybeel
Race 6: King Charisma
Race 8: Lost And Running
Race 10: Gravina
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
Feature Saturday racing heads up the highway to Newcastle for their ‘Hunter’ card. Conditions dry Wednesday morning but 30-60mm was expected to set in later that afternoon so we will be downgraded significantly. The full extent of that prediction would probably have us Heavy but I’ll guess S6 or 7 at this stage. We begin with the Max Lees Classic, for 2YOs, and most of these step out for the first time. UNCORKED looked professional in her winning trial. Never led it outright but showed a good kick to put away the runner-up. RUSSIAN CONQUEST should also offer plenty on debut. None of them of course have any wet track credentials.
Selections: 9. Uncorked (Top Tip), 8. Russian Conquest, 3. Lord Of The Hunter, 4. Vancouver’s Crown
Race 2:
2, 7, 9, 10, 11 dual acceptors. Pace from 2 if here. 8 and 11 may have to step up if he’s absent. MA AND PA entered for a longer race later on but can control proceedings here without too many worries. He is putting together a lovely record and the fact Rawiller is on will mean he is a short priced fave again. All that said, if we’re on the worst side of Soft 6 I could look to CISCO BAY to cause what would be a minor upset. Comes through stronger races and may not have to get miles back in this lineup. He’s a genuine BM88 horse, particularly on wet. One quiet trial for HUETOR; I’d prefer to have a look here.
Selections: 1. Cisco Bay (Top Tip), 2. Ma And Pa, 4. Zegalo, 10. Sacred Command
Race 3:
Pace from 3, 4, 11, 14 and 18. Typically open. I’ll have TESTATOR SILENS after a very meritorious Highway debut last start. The rain won’t faze him and he sets up well in running. Plenty of dangers including STREET POWER. Gun run almost guaranteed here and his first attempt at this level was really positive as well. SHELBY SIXTYSIX has McDonald booked and was unlucky not to salute last start. Wary of him getting ‘buried’ here too though. CASINO KID doesn’t run poorly but his rearwards positioning is rarely a help.
Selections: 18. Testator Silens (Top Tip), 9. Street Power, 13. Shelby Sixtysix, 5. Casino Kid
Race 4:
12 to lead 5, 4 and 11. TAMPERING comes through the Four Pillars and the run was sound. I’m not here saying that $700,000 is necessarily the right formline for this but he is in the midst of a decent prep and can either lead or stalk here with Bowman riding. MISS SCALINI would be who I turn to if genuinely wet. She is a possible leader and has handled Heavy 10 without a worry. If respecting her we should also make time for LADIES’ GEM.
Selections: 4. Tampering (Top Tip), 12. Miss Scalini, 11. Ladies’ Gem, 13. Harvey’s Way
Race 5:
Waller with 5 of the 11 at preview time and they’re all racing well so this is a bit of a trick. Happy to look away from the leading stable though if LOVE TAP shows up to the race. He won much weaker races on wet at the start of his career so I’m hoping he can make the switch here without fuss. Rawiller knows him well of course and I’m sure would be looking at a top four position in run. Might just be wanting this distance now too. And while the Waller runners have been ‘BM78ing’ (hey, anything can be a verb these days) LOVE TAP comes through some seriously higher level races. Suspect MILK MAN’s Brisbane work could be underrated here too.
Selections: 1. Love Tap (Top Tip), 2. Milk Man, 5. Ma And Pa (SCRATCHED), 10. Solar Apex
Race 6:
3 to lead 1 and 6. This is probably (I think?) the biggest race Dylan Gibbons has ridden in and he has a great chance of winning it on SHARED AMBITION. For starters obviously the 3 kilos off is a great help, but he is a cool customer who won’t be fazed by crossing up prominent here. SHARED AMBITION is fine with anything down to Soft 7 and I wouldn’t turn away from him even if it was a bit worse than that either. Without winning he’s had an honest prep in genuine races (mostly won by the very genuine Think It Over) and if you go back further he was beating Entente and placing to Zaaki. KING’S CHARISMA the main danger for mine.
Selections: 1. Shared Ambition (Best of the Day), 4. King’s Charisma, 2. Yonkers, 3. Kiss The Bride
Race 7:
10 and 1 to cross up? Or perhaps Nash wants to push and hold on LEASE. FESTIVAL DANCER completed her hat-trick with a massive win at Goulburn and even though she is very deep into her campaign here I want to be respectful of her at this level. There’s really no reason not to be when we saw her beating LEASE two back fair and square. KOKORO looks to be on the up and full of promise. Has to cope with wetter ground here (I’m presuming).
Selections: 10. Festival Dancer (Top Tip), 7. Kokoro, 2. Lease, 6. Contributingfactor
Race 8:
11 to lead from 1 crossing up and 5 handy. That barrier only looks briefly scary for LOST AND RUNNING if you factor in the relative lack of real pace in this race. He’s never been a get-backer at any time so I think they’ll get busy and show some real positivity. If all that falls into place then his recent two runs are absolutely the right form to be winning this. PRIME CANDIDATE good enough to switch down south and run well again. Got to love his honesty. TOP RANKED has been working well we hear and was working at a high level back home. If CRIADERAS makes his way into the final field I would be compelled to throw even more money at him. We have a real love/hate thing going on.
Selections: 1. Lost And Running (Top Tip), 11. Prime Candidate, 2. Top Ranked, 16. Criaderas
Race 9:
1, 6, 8, 10 the dual acceptors. NORWEGIAN BLISS unbeaten and plenty to like about each of her wins. Has handled to Soft 7 so no real reason to think she won’t be happy on whatever we end up on here. Should pozzie perfectly too. BAROSSA ROSA the other big winning hope for mine. Gave a great sight last time and will be up (near the) front here too. MISS EINSTEIN fresh hardly the worst but she loves getting way back.
Selections: 11. Norwegian Bliss (Top Tip), 4. Barossa Rosa, 6. Miss Einstein, 3. Fashchanel
Race 10:
A very interesting race to close the day. Not heaps of speed. 9 could lead 14. Liked the trial of import ACQUITTED and the booking of Bowman looks a signal that the horse can be ready to win at his first foray out here. CANASTA races well fresh and is at least an each-way hope. EDIT ran a beauty in the Kosciuszko and got to the line well behind Eduardo last time too. Would love him to settle a bit closer. GRAVINA lobs up in the last of the day for the fourth time this prep. Expecting more of the same from him; he’ll run well but can’t be a short priced favourite in this field surely. (McDonald goes on so maybe he can be!)
Selections: 3. Acquitted (Value Bet), 9. Canasta, 8. Edit, 6. Gravina
Race 4: #3 HIGH COURT (31.50, 7.50) – BEST VALUE
Race 9: #11 NORWEGIAN BLISS (3.30) – BEST BET
Race 1:
A lot to learn here with the majority of these babies facing the starter for the first time. UNCORKED (9) looked very good winning a recent Randwick trial and the third horse in that trial has since gone on to place in a Group 3 at Flemington. From a good barn and Clark was in the irons for that trial victory and sticks. Looks set for a strong debut. VANCOUVER’S CROWN (4) is from a winning family and didn’t do much wrong in a recent Warwick Farm trial victory. Can measure up on debut. RUSSIAN CONQUEST (8) is by first season sire Russian Revolution and will have a few eyeballs on her. Have to respect the Snowden/Berry combination. LORD OF THE HUNTER (3) only narrowly went down first time at the races, albeit in much lesser grade. Has race experience on his side and may run a race. The well-bred EXCURSION (5) draws perfectly for McEvoy in gate one and a forward showing would not surprise.
Selections: 9. Uncorked (top tip), 4. Vancouver’s Crown, 8. Russian Conquest, 3. Lord Of The Hunter
Race 2:
The regally-bred MA AND PA (2) has turned the corner this time in stringing together four wins on the bounce, with Rawiller in the saddle for three of those victories. Has won two from three over this mile journey and no reason why he can’t continue on his winning way. Former Kiwi SACRED COMMAND (10) has been thereabouts in four Australian efforts and will be nearing his peak fifth run in. Can play a role in the finish. CISCO BAY (1) has a handy record over this distance range with two wins and five placings from 11 outings and is drawn to get all the favours from the inside alley. In the mix with the claim. PRINCE OF ARRAGON (3) will strip fitter second-up from the spell and can earn some minor money. CHARMMEBABY (6) goes well for Buckley and is best of the rest.
Selections: 2. Ma And Pa (top tip), 10. Sacred Command, 1. Cisco Bay, 3. Prince Of Arragon
Race 3:
The Highway usually attracts a capacity field and this version is no exception. CEASEFIRE (2) only narrowly went down in a Rosehill edition last time out and will be nearing peak fitness fourth-up from the spell. Drawn to get some cover from gate six and gets 3kg off with the claim. Looks very hard to toss. CASINO KID (5) has been just behind the placegetters in two recent Highway efforts and is another to get some weight relief with Jones’ claim. Has to be included. Former Godolphin galloper RAOUL (8) is an honest conveyance only missing a drum once in eight career starts. A must for the multiples. The very well-related STREET POWER (9) looks a genuine top-three contender and TESTATOR SILENS (18) hasn’t done much wrong with two wins and a third from three starts to date. In the mix.
Selections: 2. Ceasefire (top tip), 5. Casino Kid, 8. Raoul, 9. Street Power
Race 4:
CREAM RISES (8) didn’t have much luck in the Four Pillars last time out and wasn’t disgraced finishing seventh three lengths back. Showed plenty of ability last preparation and gets the services of Rawiller in the saddle. Will be tough to hold out. TAMPERING (4) is a very honest conveyance placing in the top five in seven of his past eight outings. Drawn perfectly for Bowman in gate two and has a handy record over the mile with two wins and three placings from eight attempts. Looms as the main danger. HIGHLY DESIRED (5) gets 3kg weight relief with the claim and looks a top-three hope. HARVEY’S WAY (13) has a win and a placing from two starts at this circuit and is one for the exotics. CAESARS PALACE (7) mixes his form but can show up if he brings his best.
Selections: 4. Tampering (top tip), 5. Highly Desired, 13. Harvey’s Way, 7. Caesars Palace
Race 5:
This could be an absolute Waller-fest. MIGHTYBEEL (3) is as honest as they come never missing the top five in ten career starts. Goes well over this distance range with two wins and a second from four attempts and gets in-form hoop McDonald back on board. Will be right there when the whips are cracking. LOVE TAP (1) mixes his form but is one from one over this trip and will get across easily from gate two. Looks a danger. Former Kiwi LORD ARDMORE (4) got the job done last time out and will take plenty of confidence from that victory. In the mix. SHIBLI (6) won going away from them last start and will be rock-hard fit for this. Has to be included. SOLAR APEX (10) has only missed the top four once in 14 outings and that was in the Group 1 SA Derby. One for the exotics.
Selections: 3. Mightybeel (top tip), 1. Love Tap, 4. Lord Ardmore, 6. Shibli
Race 6:
One of the features on the card, the inaugural running of the $300,000 The Beauford. KING’S CHARISMA (4) wasn’t disgraced last time out when fifth in the Group 3 Hotham at Flemington on Derby day. Drops slightly back in distance here but will be fit and gets Berry on board. Looks very hard to toss. SHARED AMBITION (1) has been a model of consistency without winning this time in and gets 3kg off with the claim. Can make his presence felt. The well-named KISS THE BRIDE (3) out of the dam I Do has placed his past couple and looks a genuine top-three contender. HUSH WRITER (7) improved last time out and is an each-way chance if he can get a soft lead. TORRENS (6) put in a career-best performance last start and goes well for Duggan who has two wins from three steers. In the mix.
Selections: 4. King’s Charisma (top tip), 1. Shared Ambition, 3. Kiss The Bride, 7. Hush Writer
Race 7:
The Group 3 Spring Stakes. FESTIVAL DANCER (10) has really started to hit her straps putting three wins together on end, all over this mile trip. Gibbons has been on board for two of those victories and she is sure to be racing with a lot of confidence. Can take the step-up to this grade. The well-related ARNAQUEUR (4) has been competing in some pretty elite company of late and will be at peak fitness for this. Shapes as one to consider. DUFRESNE (1) was a handy second in the Four Pillars last start and can run a race if he can get an easy lead. In the mix. LEASE (2) doesn’t win out of turn but is usually thereabouts and has placed three from five over the journey. One for the exotics. LOCH EAGLE (8) best of the rest with McDonald engaged.
Selections: 10. Festival Dancer, 4. Arnaqueur, 1. Dufresne, 2. Lease
Race 8:
The big one. The third running of the $1 million The Hunter. LOST AND RUNNING (1) has been racing in the highest of company this time in including a very respectable fourth in The Everest before a solid second in the Classique Legend behind Eduardo. Has a win and a second from two attempts at the trip and gets Bowman in the irons to navigate from the wide draw. Best form puts him right in this. Former Great Britain galloper TOP RANKED (2) is the wildcard of the race having his first run in the region. Was thereabouts at Group 1 level up north and is prepared by the astute Neasham camp. Has to be respected. BANDERSNATCH (5) resumes here but has won two from five when fresh and is a winner at this circuit. In the mix. GEM SONG (3) has a strong record when racing fresh with two wins and two placings from five outings and is drawn to get the run of the race from the inside alley. Hard to ignore. PRIME CANDIDATE (11) will be near peak fitness now and should be in it for a long way.
Selections: 1. Lost And Running (top tip), 2. Top Ranked, 5. Bandersnatch, 3. Gem Song
Race 9:
The Gerry Harvey-owned NORWEGIAN BLISS (11) hasn’t put a hoof wrong in three starts to date as Doyle works her way through the grades. Was a convincing winner at this circuit two starts back before heading to town and getting the job done. Adkins stays on top and it’s very hard to ignore winning form. Can continue the unbeaten run. FASHCHANEL (3) drops back from Group 2 company where she wasn’t disgraced in the Hot Danish last time out. Gets plenty of weight relief with the 3kg claim and strips fitter third-up from the spell. Looks a major player. Former Kiwi TINKER MCPHEE (5) gets the Waller/McDonald treatment here and has to be respected first-up after a trial victory. ZOU DE MOON (10) has put two wins together since joining the new stable and is one for the exotics. BAROSSA ROSA (4) may try to get an easy lead and can fill the frame.
Selections: 11. Norwegian Bliss (top tip), 3. Fashchanel, 5. Tinker Mcphee, 10. Zou De Moon
Race 10:
Godolphin plays a strong hand in this final event. GRAVINA (6) is a model of consistency with two wins and four placings from her past six starts. Will be nearing his peak fourth-up from the spell now and drawn to get a cosy run from gate three. Is clearly the one to beat. Stablemate KATALIN (12) put the writing on the wall for this with a strong Rosehill win first-up and is one from one around this circuit. Looks the main danger. EDIT (8) has been thereabouts in harder company his past two outings and looks a genuine contender for the Country Championships next year. Has to be included. Northern hemisphere galloper ACQUITTED (3) is first-up but has a handy fresh record with a win and two seconds from three attempts. A watch on betting is advised. NEVER TALK (5) best of the rest with the 3kg claim.
Selections: 6. Gravina (top tip), 12. Katalin, 8. Edit, 3. Acquitted
Unibet – From The Traders’ Desk:
Race 2 #2 Ma And Pa (2.90) – BEST BET
Race 8 #1 Lost and Running (2.60)