The following are betting tips for the 2022 AFL Semi-finals.
At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $90,000 competition for Melbourne vs. Brisbane on Friday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Melbourne vs. Brisbane
The stats stack up against the Lions. Brisbane have gone 0-12 in the head-to-head at the MCG since 2015 and 0-6 at the line at this venue since 2018. The Lions have lost their last four meetings against the Demons. They have also failed to cover the line in their last five head-to-heads as well as their last four away games against Melbourne. The Demons beat the Lions 117-53 at the MCG in June and 115-57 at the Gabba in the final regular season round. Melbourne lost their qualifying final to Sydney last week, but the Demons have won their last four games on the back of a defeat. Brisbane, on the other hand, have a mediocre 8-7 record on the back of a win. The Lions had only the 10th best defensive record this season, which is not a good statistic for finals footy. Melbourne, on the other hand, finished the regular season with the best defensive record in the league. Four of Brisbane’s away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points, so I’m on the fence regarding the line. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.36 (Picklebet).
For those looking at alternative markets, I also like Melbourne to lead at halftime at 1.45 (BlueBet). Melbourne boast an 18-4 record at halftime while Brisbane have an indifferent 12-10 halftime record this year.
Those looking for more risk, or perhaps a small hedge bet, should consider the Melbourne/Brisbane HT/FT selection at 11.00 (BoomBet). Melbourne have blown four halftime leads this season while Brisbane won a league-high five games from halftime losing positions.
Collingwood vs. Fremantle
The stats offer support to both sides. Collingwood have won six straight games as the home team and they have gone 10-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months. Collingwood also beat Fremantle 80-44 in Perth in their sole meeting this season. Fremantle, however, have gone 5-1-0 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. The Dockers boast a 9-2 away record at the line over the last twelve months (6-0 as the away underdog) and they have won their last two away fixtures against Collingwood. The Dockers upset Melbourne in their sole fixture at the MCG this season. Also in Fremantle’s favour is they boasted the second best defensive record during the regular season, compared to 9th for Collingwood. I will avoid the head-to-head and instead bet on the winning margin. Over the last twelve months, 21 out of Collingwood’s 23 games were settled by 1-39 points. As has been well documented, Collingwood have a recent track record of being involved in incredibly tight games. I would wager 0.6 units on Collingwood 1-39 at 2.05 (BoomBet) and 0.4 units on Fremantle 1-39 at 3.10 (BoomBet).
For those looking for more risk, I would back Collingwood to win the game and to Fremantle cover the +12.5 line. Collingwood’s last eight wins were by 1, 7, 4, 4, 5, 7, 5 and 11 points (in descending order of date). I would back Collingwood 1-12 at 7.00 (Moneyball).