The following are betting tips for the 2022 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals.
There are some familiar countries left in the competition. Six of the eight quarter-finalists have either won or made the final of a previous World Cup.
2022 Round of 16 Statistical Notes
- Six of the eight games went Winning Team / Winning Team in the HT/FT market.
- Both teams scored in six of the eight games.
- Six of the eight games were won by the favourite and the other two were draws at full-time.
- The average halftime total was 1.625 (median 1.5) and the average full-time total was 3.5 (median 3.5). Both of these figures were above the averages for the group stage (0.9 halftime, 2.5 full-time).
2010, 2014, 208 Quarter-finals Statistical Notes
- In each of the last three FIFA World Cups, three of the four quarter-finals were won in regular time and the other was won on penalties.
- Six of the nine winners won their games to nil
Croatia v Brazil
2 AM AEDT on Saturday, December 10
G1: Croatia 0-0 Morocco
G2: Croatia 4-1 Canada
G3: Croatia 0-0 Belgium
R16: Croatia 1-1 Japan (won 3-1 on penalties)
Croatia have only conceded two goals so far this tournament, however they have been held goalless twice. Their full-time draw against Japan in the Round of 16 continues a trend. Seven of Croatia’s last eight knockout games at World Cups and Euros went to extra time.
G1: Brazil 2-0 Serbia
G2: Brazil 1-0 Switzerland
G3: Brazil 0-1 Cameroon
R16: Brazil 4-1 South Korea
Brazil have only conceded two goals so far this tournament. They didn’t score a goal in the opening 60 minutes of any group stage match but they put four goals past South Korea in the opening 36 minutes of their Round of 16 fixture.
Croatia are big underdogs in this game but they did well to see off the dangerous Japanese and they have to be respected given they reached the the 2018 World Cup final. Croatia finished top of their UEFA Nations League group in June & September this year and that group contained France, Denmark and Austria. Croatia is a vastly experienced side that will not be in awe of the occasion.
Brazil remain the firm tournament favourites despite not having much luck with injuries. Gabriel Jesus and Alex Telles are out with knee injuries and Alex Sandro is battling to be fit for this game. The good news is that Neymar and Danilo returned to the squad for the Round of 16 following their early tournament knocks. Brazil’s attacking prowess in the first half against South Korea was an ominous warning to the rest of the competition. A similar performance would cause Croatia a lot of problems.
Brazil are the deserved favourites but the 1.33 odds are too short to hold appeal. Given that all six Round of 16 winners led at halftime, I would back Brazil/Brazil in the HT/FT market at 2.04 (BoomBet).
Netherlands v Argentina
6 AM AEDT on Saturday, December 10
The Netherlands’ results:
G1: Netherlands 2-0 Senegal
G2: Netherlands 1-1 Ecuador
G3: Netherlands 2-0 Qatar
R16: Netherlands 3-1 USA
The Netherlands have been consistently fast starters this tournament. They scored the opening goal in all four matches and they scored in the opening 30 minutes of their last three games. The Netherlands have yet to concede a first half goal. They have only conceded two goals so far this tournament.
G1: Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia
G2: Argentina 2-0 Mexico
G3: Argentina 2-0 Poland
R16: Argentina 2-1 Australia
Argentina have been relatively slow starters this tournament. An early penalty against Saudi Arabia was their only goal in the first 30 minutes of a game thus far. Defensively, Argentina are better than the goals conceded metric suggests. They have conceded the fewest shots on goal of any side in the quarter-finals.
The Netherlands don’t have the same superstar-laden squad as some other sides left in the tournament, but they do have high quality players across the pitch. You also can’t underestimate the benefit of having the highly experienced head coach Louis van Gaal. He was at the helm in the Netherlands’ 2014 campaign in which they lost to Argentina on penalties in the semi-finals. The Netherlands’ unbeaten form in this tournament continues their pre-tournament results. They went 5-1-0 in the UEFA Nations League and have gone 14-5-0 since Euro 2020. The Netherlands were given a scare by the USA in the Round of 16 and will know that an improved performance will be required if they are to progress.
Argentina’s dream of ending Messi’s international career on a high remains intact after they saw off Australia in the Round of 16. They won the 2021 Copa América and like the Netherlands, Argentina are a notoriously difficult side to beat. They have lost just one of their last 40 games. The Dutch will be a big step up from their previous opponents and you wonder how many more times Argentina can rely upon moments of magic from Messi to stay in the tournament.
A full-time draw wouldn’t surprise me and given the Netherlands’ fast starts and Argentina’s slower starts. I am also looking at wagers on the Netherlands to score first. Given that only 25% of quarter-finals games at the last three World Cups ended in regular time draws, I will shy away from the draw selection at 3.30 odds and instead take the following:
Netherlands to score first at 2.50 (TexBet)
Or for more risk:
Netherlands/Draw in the HT/FT market at 16.00 (BoomBet)
Morocco v Portugal
2 AM AEDT on Sunday, December 11
G1: Morocco 0-0 Croatia
G2: Morocco 2-0 Belgium
G3: Morocco 2-1 Canada
R16: Morocco 0-0 Spain (won 3-0 on penalties)
Morocco’s campaign has been built around their strong defence. They have kept three clean sheets in four games this tournament and no side has conceded fewer goals than Morocco (1). It’s worth pointing out that those clean sheets came against Croatia, Belgium and Spain. On the flip side, Morocco have scored the fewest goals (4) of any team left in the tournament and they have been held scoreless twice. Their expected goals metric of 3.08 is the lowest of any side in the quarter-finals.
G1: Portugal 3-2 Ghana
G2: Portugal 2-0 Uruguay
G3: Portugal 1-2 South Korea
R16: Portugal 6-1 Switzerland
Thanks to their thrashing of Switzerland, Portugal are now tied with England for the most goals (12) scored in the tournament. On the flip side, Portugal have conceded more goals (5) than any other side left in the competition.
Morocco are in their first ever quarter-final and are aiming to become the first African nation to reach a semi-final. They are well organised and difficult to score against, as evident by the fact that they have conceded just one goal in their last eight games. They will likely set themselves up to play on the counter like they did against Spain, but Morocco can ill afford to waste their opportunities again given Portugal’s offensive performance in the Round of 16.
The talking point around Portugal is the performance of 21-year-old Goncalo Ramos, who scored a hat-trick against Switzerland in the Round of 16. Ramos sits tied for second in the tournament top goalscorer standings despite having played in just one game. He had only 33 minutes of international football under his belt prior to that match so it will be interesting to see how he fares now that the spotlight will be on him leading up to this game. The other talking point was the fact that Ramos’ inclusion came at the expense of 37-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who was relegated to the bench. It was a bold, but profitable move by head coach Fernando Santos, who will now have every right to keep Ronaldo from the bench once more.
This fixture features the low-scoring Morocco against the free-scoring but also frequently conceding Portugal. I expect Morocco’s lack of offensive punch will hurt them in the end as Portugal will waste fewer chances than Spain, Belgium and Croatia did. I expect Portugal will prevail in a low scoring encounter but a 0-0 regular time draw is a possibility given that three of Morocco’s last six fixtures resulted in this scoreline. I would place the following bets:
0.85 units on Portugal in the head-to-head at 1.70 (bet365)
0.15 units on the 0-0 correct regular time score at 8.50 (BlueBet)
England v France
6 AM AEDT on Sunday, December 11
G1: England 6-2 Iran
G2: England 0-0 USA
G3: England 3-0 Wales
R16: England 3-0 Senegal
England have kept three consecutive clean sheets. They are the only team to have scored 3+ goals in three games. England’s goal difference of 10 is the best in the tournament. No side has scored more than England (12). One issue is that England have been slow starters. They have yet to score a goal in the opening 30 minutes of a game.
G1: France 4-1 Australia
G2: France 2-1 Denmark
G3: France 0-1 Tunisia
R16: France 3-1 Poland
France are the only side in the quarter-finals that has yet to keep a clean sheet. Of the teams remaining, only Portugal (5) has conceded more goals than France (4).
This is a fantastic fixture to wrap up the quarter-finals. France are the reigning World Cup champions while England reached the 2018 World Cup semi-finals and the Euro 2020 final. All eyes will be on whether England can contain Kylian Mbappé, but the threat of Olivier Giroud can’t be overlooked. Meanwhile, France will have their hands full keeping half a dozen England threats quiet. England boast a high quality goalkeeper in Jordan Pickford, but questions remain over whether the rest of their defensive ranks can keep France quiet.
France and England have scored 21 goals between them this tournament. Both sides boast tremendous firepower but questions remain of both teams regarding their defence. I would back both teams to score at 1.78 (BlueBet).