The following is a preview with betting tips for Super Bowl LVII. This game sees the Philadelphia Eagles play the Kansas City Chiefs at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Kick-off is at 10:30 AM AEDT on Monday the 13th.
This will be the third Super Bowl appearance in four years for the Kansas City Chiefs. They beat the 49ers 31-20 in 2020 and lost 9-31 to the Buccaneers in 2021. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl MVP in the 2020 winning season.
What’s to like about the Eagles
- The Eagles offence ranked 1st for rushing TDs and 5th for rushing yards this season. In contrast, Chiefs were ranked 8th and 20th, respectively, for those two metrics.
- The Chiefs defence conceded more passing TDs than any other team this season. The Eagles conceded the 12th fewest passing TDs.
- The Eagles defence ranked 1st for fewest passing yards conceded and 6th for interceptions. In contrast, the Chiefs defence was ranked 19th and 21st, respectively, for those two metrics.
- The Eagles defence ranked 7th for fewest points conceded per game, compared to 16th for the Chiefs.
- The Eagles also dominated their divisional playoff game (38-7) and crushed the injury-hit 49ers 31-7 in the conference championship. In contrast, the Chiefs won both of their postseason games by 3 to 7 points.
- The Eagles went 14–1 this regular season for games that QB Jalen Hurts started, compared to 14−3 for Patrick Mahomes.
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes sprained ankle during the post-season. The health of his ankle has been subject to speculation.
- The Chiefs are battling a number of injuries leading up to the game, while the Eagles are relatively healthy.
- The Eagles defence led the league with a whopping 70 sacks this season. The league bests in the previous tens seasons were 55, 56, 54, 52, 56, 48, 52, 54, 60 and 52 (albeit with one fewer game).
What’s to like about the Chiefs
- The Chiefs offence ranked 1st for passing yards and 1st for passing TDs this season. The Eagles were ranked 8th and 15th, respectively, for these two metrics.
- The Chiefs offence ranked 1st for points per game, while the Eagles were ranked 3rd.
- The Chiefs defence ranked 8th for rushing yards conceded and 7th for rushing TDs conceded. In contrast, the Eagles were ranked 16th and 18th, respectively, for those two metrics.
- The Chiefs offence is led by a previous Super Bowl MVP and five-time Pro Bowler in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes holds the NFL records for career passer rating and career playoff passer rating.
- Eagles QB Jalen Hurts’ throwing shoulder is not yet at 100% fitness after he suffered a sprain late in the season.
- Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is a two-time Super Bowl champion as a coach and a 4 time receiver of Maxwell Club NFL Coach of the Year. Reid boasts 28-4 record when coaching a team that is coming off a bye. In contrast for the Eagles, Nick Sirianni is only in his second season as a head coach.
- All three of the Chiefs’ defeats this season were by 1-7 points.
This is an intriguing match-up. The Eagles offence led the league in sacks, but the Chiefs’ defence conceded the third fewest sacks this season. The Eagles’ strength on offence has been their running game, but the Chiefs’ defence has a better track record in stopping the run than they do the passing game. Will the Eagles play to their running strength or attack the Chiefs’ weakness, which is defending the pass? As for the Chiefs, their strength on offence is their passing game, however the Eagles’ pass defence in terms of yards conceded is the best in the league. Will the Chiefs keep more to the ground against an Eagles defence with very average rush defence statistics? My guess is that both sides will play to their strengths, which means the Eagles will lean towards their running game while the Chiefs will pass the ball more.
Who to look out for in player betting
Patrick Mahomes looms large as the Chiefs’ most likely MVP should they win, however there is little value on him at 2.25. With other receivers battling injuries, Travis Kelce should have a big game for the Chiefs. He scored the first TD in both of the Chiefs’ postseason games and he recorded 95+ receiving yards in seven of the Chiefs’ last eight postseason games. Keep an eye on Marquez Valdes-Scantling as a higher odds option in the anytime TD markets. He scored in both the divisional playoff and conference championship.
For the Eagles, keep an eye on Jalen Hurts in the TD markets. He rushed for a TD in both the divisional playoff and conference championship. Given Mahomes’ ankle sprain, Hurts is worth looking at for head-to-head rushing markets between him and Mahomes. I’m not as keen on Hurts in the MVP market due to his questionable shoulder health and the strength of the Eagles’ running game.
Click here to compare Super Bowl LVII odds.
The Eagles are currently 1.5 point favourites with the total set at 50.5 with most bookmakers.
Bookmakers have had a hard time separating the two sides but I wonder if punters have too heavily on the star power of Patrick Mahomes. Offence tends to win headlines while defence wins championships, and I can’t help but look at the fact that the Eagles conceded just 7 points in each of the divisional playoff and conference championship (albeit against a banged-up 49ers). The Eagles squad is healthier than the Chiefs, which is another plus. Both sides come into this game in good form and it’s noteworthy that the Eagles have gone 10-5 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months while the Chiefs have gone 5-10 at the line on the back of a win.
Philadelphia Eagles in the head-to-head at 1.83 (Unibet)
Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer at 2.00 (TexBet)