The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 1 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $150,000 competition for Richmond vs. Carlton on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Richmond vs. Carlton
After making a sluggish 2-4 start to last season, Richmond went 11-1-4 and never lost a game by more than 6 points for the rest of the campaign. Carlton had a strong campaign but flat-lined at the end of the season with four consecutive defeats to miss out on the playoffs by the barest of margins. Richmond have won 11 of the last 12 meetings against Carlton and they relish the MCG. The Tigers went 11-3 in both the head-to-head and at the line at the MCG last year. Carlton, meanwhile, went 4-5 in both the head-to-head and at the line at this venue. Richmond have won 12 of the last 16 meetings against Carlton when they were installed as the favourite. Recent history suggests that this game will be close. Ten of Richmond’s 13 wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, while all 10 of Carlton’s defeats were by 1-39. Furthermore, 12 of Richmond’s last 13 wins over Carlton were by 1-39 points. I would back Richmond in the head-to-head at 1.72 (bet365, Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Richmond 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble).
Geelong vs. Collingwood
Geelong bring a 16-game winning streak into this season and they went 19-6 at the line over the last 12 months. The Cats went 7-1 in the head-to-head and 6-2 at the line at the MCG last season. Collingwood improved dramatically last year compared to 2021, but there is a query of possible mean reversion this year given that nine of their wins were by 1-7 points. Seven of Collingwood’s eight defeats last year were by 1-39 points and their three defeats to Geelong since 2021 were all by 6-13 points. Looking back further, eight of the last nine meetings between the two were settled by 1-24 points. I would back Geelong 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 1-24 at 3.25 (Dabble).
Eleven of the last 13 meetings between Geelong and Collingwood went under the bookmaker’s total. Furthermore, 8 of the last 9 meetings resulted in a total score of 150 or below. I would back under 170.5 at 1.72 (Dabble).
Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane
Both teams have made handy acquisitions but Brisbane arguably have the edge in that department due to the incoming trio of Josh Dunkley, Jack Gunston and Will Ashcroft. Brisbane have won five on the trot against Port Adelaide and they have gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings against the Power when installed as the favourite. Over the past twelve months Port Adelaide have gone 3-9 as the underdog but they only suffered one 40+ defeat last season. I would back Brisbane 1-39 at 2.40 (bet365, Dabble).