The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 6 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
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To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are often published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic resting of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. The average total scores in Rounds 1-5 have been 60.5, in contrast to 52.4 in 2022. There have been over eight tries per game this season, compared to six in 2022. Another trend is that margins tend to be either pretty tight or total blowouts. Of the 30 games played so far, 14 were won by 1-8 points and 14 were won by 17+ points. Only two games had a winning margin in the 9-16 range.
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Reds vs. Crusaders |
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New Zealand teams have an 8-1 record against Australian teams this season. The Crusaders have won eleven consecutive games against the Reds and the Queensland side has gone 0-7 as the underdog over the last twelve months. I would back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.20 (bet365).
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Drua vs. Rebels |
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The Drua make for tough opposition on Fijian soil. They have already beaten the Crusaders at home this campaign and they beat both the Rebels (24-0) and the Force (48-38) at home in pre-season. The Rebels have been decent this year, but their away record remains poor. The Melbourne side has lost five consecutive away games (four by 13+) and they failed to cover the line in their last four away fixtures. I would back the Fijian Drua in the head-to-head at 1.72 (bet365).
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Chiefs vs. Blues |
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The Blues have won seven consecutive away games and they have won three on the trot against the Chiefs. On the other hand, the hosts top the table with a 5-0 record so far this campaign. The Chiefs have covered the line in their last four home games while the Blues have covered the line in their last three away games. You can make a case for either team so I will opt for the margin market. Generally, games between the Chiefs and Blues two are tight. Nineteen of the last twenty-five meetings were settled by 1-12 points so I would back both the Chiefs 1-12 at 2.95 (Unibet) and the Blues 1-12 at 3.15 (Unibet).
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Brumbies vs. Waratahs |
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The Brumbies have won ten consecutive games against the Waratahs. The Canberra side has gone 3-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months while the Waratahs have gone 1-3 as the away underdog. The Brumbies have gone 4-1 so far this season, with their only defeat coming away against the Crusaders in a game where they chose to rest five Wallabies. The Waratahs, meanwhile, have made a 1-5 start to the season. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.26 (Unibet). The Waratahs will be desperate in this fixture and five of their last seven defeats were by 1-12 points. At the same time, five of the Brumbies’ last six wins were by 1-12 points. The Brumbies’ last three wins over the Waratahs were by 2, 7 and 6 points. Those looking for more risk should back the Brumbies 1-12 at 2.95 (Unibet).
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Hurricanes vs. Force |
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This will be the Force’s third straight game in New Zealand, which should take it’s toll. The Force’s last two away games against the Hurricanes saw them lose 41-6 and 43-6 and the Hurricanes enter this game having rested a few players and yet still beat Moana Pasifika 59-0. All five of the Hurricanes’ home wins over the last twelve months were by 13+ and the Hurricanes boast a 5-0 line record as the home favourite over the same period. The Force lost by 13 points to a vastly rotated Blues squad last week so if the Hurricanes revert to a full strength team then this should be a lopsided contest. I would back the Hurricanes 13+ at 1.42 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should back the Hurricanes -20.5 at 1.91 (BoomBet).
Just to reiterate, those who are more risk-averse should wait for the team sheets before wagering.