The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 4 of the 2023 AFL season.
At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $90,000 competition for Brisbane vs. Collingwood on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Brisbane vs. Collingwood
If this were being played at the MCG I would be all over Collingwood, but Brisbane have gone 11-2 at the Gabba since 2022. Furthermore, over the last twelve months the Lions have gone 2-0 as the home underdog. Brisbane have also gone 8-1 in the head-to-head and 6-3 at the line on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. They opened their campaign with a 126-72 away defeat to Port Adelaide but responded with a win over Melbourne at home a week later. Brisbane then suffered an away defeat to the Western Bulldogs last week so it wouldn’t surprise me if we see another strong response this weekend. Brisbane have won four consecutive games against Collingwood and as well as three on the trot against the Pies at the Gabba. I do have concerns for Brisbane, however. They have flopped in two of their three games this season and Collingwood boast a 12-1 record as the favourite over the last twelve months, including a 4-0 record as the away favourite. The Pies also boast a 4-1 record as the away favourite against Brisbane.
Rather than throw my hat into the head-to-head market, I will focus on the winning margin. The Lions have only lost one home game by 40+ over the last twelve months and seven of their nine home wins were by 1-39 points. Out of those seven, six were by 1-24 points. As for Collingwood, all 13 of their away games over the last twelve months were settled by 1-39 points. Seven of Collingwood’s last eight away wins were by 1-24 points. I would back both Brisbane 1-39 at 2.60 (Colossalbet) and Collingwood 1-39 at 2.45 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider both Brisbane 1-24 at 3.65 (Unibet) and Collingwood 1-24 at 3.40 (Dabble).
North Melbourne vs. Carlton
Carlton have gone 6-1 both in the head-to-head and the line at Marvel Stadium since 2022. North Melbourne, in contrast, have gone 3-8 in the head-to-head and 4-7 at the line at this venue. North Melbourne have gone 2-18 in the head-to-head and 7-13 at the line as the underdog over the last twelve months. During this period, eight of their nine home defeats were by 40+ points and all nine defeats were by 25+ points. Carlton beat North Melbourne by 50 points last year and seven of their eleven wins over the last twelve months were by 25+ points. I would back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.26 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Carlton -24.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs
Richmond have gone 11-1-4 in the head-to-head and 12-4 at the line at the MCG since 2022. At the same time, the Western Bulldogs have gone 0-3 in both the head-to-head and the line at this venue. Richmond have gone 7-2-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months while the Western Bulldogs have gone 0-6 as the away underdog. The Western Bulldogs haven’t beaten Richmond since 2019. I would back Richmond in the head-to-head at 1.50 (Colossalbet). Seven of Richmond’s eight home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, so those looking for more risk should consider Richmond 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).
St Kilda vs. Gold Coast
Gold Coast recorded an impressive home win last week but their away form is generally poor. The Suns have gone 2-8 away from home over the last twelve months and 1-6 as the away underdog. St Kilda have made a 3-0 start to the season and they have won seven consecutive games against the Suns. St Kilda boast a 9-5 line record at Marvel Stadium since 2022, while Gold Coast have gone 1-3 both in the head-to-head and the line at this venue. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.50 (Unibet). Five of St Kilda’s six home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and seven of the Suns’ eight away defeats were by the same margin. Those looking for more risk should consider St Kilda 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
Sydney vs. Port Adelaide
Sydney boast a 6-1 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months and they have won nine consecutive games at the SCG. Port Adelaide have gone 2-7 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and this will be their first visit to the SCG since 2018. No stats jump off the page in the line and margin markets, so I would simply back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.35 (BlueBet).
West Coast vs. Melbourne
West Coast have gone 2-19 over the last twelve months and their cause isn’t helped by their growing injury list. They lost this home fixture against Melbourne 38-112 last year and the Demons come into this game on the back of a 50-point win over Sydney. Coincidentally, both of their wins this season have been by 50-point margins. Looking back further, five of Melbourne’s six away wins over the last twelve months were by 25+ points and four were by 40+. Six of West Coast’s eight home defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+. I would back Melbourne 25+ at 1.32 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 40+ at 1.70 (Colossalbet).