The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 7 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
Compare Super Rugby odds
View the Super Rugby form guide
To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are often published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic resting of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. The average total scores in Rounds 1-6 have been 60.4. This is in contrast to 52.4 in 2022. There have been almost eight and a half tries per game this season, compared to six in 2022. Another trend is that margins tend to be either pretty tight or total blowouts. Of the 36 games played so far, 17 were won by 1-8 points and 15 were won by 17+ points. Only four games had a winning margin in the 9-16 range.
 |
Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika |
 |
This fixture is a challenge because the Crusaders may choose to either partially or heavily rotate their squad. They last did so in Round 3 and they have a bye next week, so I’m going to bank on them playing a decent number of All Blacks this week. All seven of the Crusaders’ home wins over the last twelve months were by 13+ points. Moana Pasifika limp into this fixture having conceded 62, 59 and 45 points in their last three games. Their losing margins to the Brumbies, Hurricanes and Highlanders were 26, 59 and 28, respectively. On average Moana Pasifika are conceding almost 7 tries per game, so Leicester Fainga’anuku should have a field day if he plays. In light of the Crusaders’ squad uncertainty, I would back the Crusaders 13+ at 1.16 (bet365). I may later opt for a more aggressive bet, depending on the team sheet announcements later in the week.
 |
Reds vs. Brumbies |
 |
The Brumbies defeated the Reds 23-17 in Canberra in Round 3, which continues a run of relatively close contests between the two. Eight of the last ten meetings and six of the last seven meetings between the two were settled by 1-6 points. Five of the last ten meetings were settled by 3 points or less. The two games that broke this trend were 14 and 19 point wins for the Reds. The Brumbies’ last five wins over the Reds were all by 6 points or fewer. The Brumbies bring stronger form into this clash than the Reds. The visitors have gone 5-1 so far this season, which includes an away win over the Blues. Their sole defeat came when they fielded a heavily rotated squad in Christchurch against the Crusaders. The Reds, in contrast, limp into this fixture in 2-4 form. What’s stopping me from jumping all over the Brumbies is the fact that they have lost each of their last seven away games against the Reds. Another concern is the Brumbies’ defence, which has conceded 36, 35 and 36 points in their last three games. I will side with a close contest and back both the Reds 1-12 at 3.45 (Unibet) and the Brumbies 1-12 at 2.90 (Unibet).
 |
Highlanders vs. Hurricanes |
 |
The Highlanders’ injury crisis has abated to some extent, which has seen them turn their season around with three consecutive wins, albeit against weak opposition. The key to this fixture is the Highlanders are at home. The data I have at hand goes back for the last twelve meetings where the Highlanders hosted the Hurricanes, and out of those dozen games, the Hurricanes never won by 13+ points. All seven of their wins were by 1-12 margins and their winning margin last season was 1 point. Over the last twelve months the Highlanders have only lost one of their seven home games by 13+ and that was when they fielded an injury-ravaged and Aaron Smith-less squad against the Blues. The Highlanders have a bye next week so I expect they will pick their best squad for this clash. While the Hurricanes have gone 5-2 as the away favourite over the last twelve months, they have gone 2-5 at the line as the away favourite. I would back the Highlanders +12.5 (“Start +12.5” market) at 1.48 (bet365). Given the Hurricanes have gone 11-2 as the favourite over the last twelve months and the Highlanders have gone 1-6 as the underdog, those looking for more risk should consider the Hurricanes 1-12 at 2.88 (Unibet).
 |
Rebels vs. Blues |
 |
The Rebels boast a 6-0 line record as the home underdog over the last twelve months and their three home defeats during this period were all by 1-12 points. Five of the Blues’ seven away wins over the last twelve months were by 1-7 points. I am a little cautious given the Blues have handed out some punishing defeats to the Rebels in years gone by, but I will lean on recent form and back the Rebels +20.5 at 1.53 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider the Blues 1-12 at 3.35 (Unibet).