The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 6 of the 2023 AFL season.
At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $90,000 competition for Brisbane vs. Collingwood on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
GWS vs. Brisbane
This fixture will be played at Manuka Oval in Canberra, an alternative home venue that GWS have a terrible recent record at. The Giants have gone 1-8 both in the head-to-head and the line at Manuka Oval since 2019. They are the underdogs for this fixture, which doesn’t bode well either. GWS have gone 2-11 as the underdog over the last twelve months and 1-4 as the home underdog. Brisbane generally have not been good away from home over the last twelve months, however they thrashed North Melbourne in neutral territory last week. One team that Brisbane have a particularly good away record against is GWS. The Lions have have won their last three away games and covered the line in their last five away games against the Giants. Last year Brisbane won this fixture by a 40-point margin. GWS have failed to cover the line in each of their last four games coming into this clash. I would back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.32 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane -20.5 at 1.90 (BlueBet, Colossalbet).
Geelong vs. Sydney
Much like the previous pick, the venue is worth noting here. This will be Geelong’s first game of the season at GMHBA Stadium, a venue that they have dominated recently. Geelong have always been strong at this venue, but in 2022 they took it to another level, going 8-1 both in the head-to-head and the line. In all home fixtures, Geelong have gone 13-2 in the head-to-head and 11-4 at the line over the last twelve months. Sydney beat Richmond last week, but the Swans are one of those teams where it’s better to play them on the back of a win. Sydney have gone 7-10 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months, compared to 5-3 on the back of a defeat. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.50 (BlueBet, BoomBet).
Hawthorn vs. Adelaide
Adelaide’s last eight games spanning this season and the last went over the total. This includes a streak of five away games going over the total. This season Adelaide’s average total score is 189.2 with no game falling below 180. Hawthorn’s average total at UTAS Stadium since 2022 is 166.2 and this game should be above that average. Adelaide’s last visit to this venue in 2021 saw a 201 total score. Mild, dry conditions are forecast for Saturday. I would take over 164.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.50 (bet365).
Gold Coast vs. North Melbourne
Gold Coast have gone 5-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. They gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line as the home favourite against North Melbourne over the past decade. North Melbourne have gone 1-10 away from home over the last twelve months and they have gone 3-8 at the line away from home over the same period. Eight of North Melbourne’s ten away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ points and seven of those defeats were by 40+. I would back Gold Coast in the head-to-head at 1.30 (Dabble).
Melbourne vs. Richmond
Richmond have gone 1-5 as the underdog over the last twelve months and they bring a three-game losing streak into this clash. Richmond have gone 2-6 at the line on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months.
Over the last decade, Melbourne have won all four games against Richmond when installed as the favourite. Seven of Richmond’s eight defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and, over the last decade, seven of Melbourne’s eight wins over Richmond were by 1-39 points. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.35 (BoomBet, Colossalbet). Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).
Collingwood vs. Essendon
Both teams have made 4-1 starts to the season but it could be argued that Collingwood have had the tougher fixture list. The Pies have gone 12-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months and 9-0 as the home favourite. Essendon, meanwhile, have gone 2-6 as the away underdog. Looking at the stats, the 1-39 margin jumps off the page. Over the last twelve months, 17 of Collingwood’s 18 wins were by 1-39 points, while 7 of Essendon’s 8 away defeats were by the same margin. The two meetings between the two last year were settled by 11 and 4 points. Essendon covered the line in each of their last four away games against Melbourne. I would back Essendon +39.5 at 1.22 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.20 (Colossalbet, Dabble).