The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 33 of the 2022/23 English Premier League. Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
My best bets each week are published on AusSportsTipping.com
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Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
Under 2.5 goals at 1.57 (bet365, Dabble)
Eight of the last nine meetings between Wolves and Crystal Palace went under 2.5 goals. This includes the last four meetings at Molineux Stadium. Three of Wolverhampton’s last four games went under this total and Palace’s last two fixtures went under 2.5. If you had backed under 2.5 goals on every Wolverhampton home fixture over the last twelve months you would be in profit. The same can be said if you had backed every Crystal Palace away game over the same period.
Aston Villa vs. Fulham
Aston Villa in the head-to-head at 1.75 (Colossalbet, Dabble)
Fulham have had a great season but they have lost four of their last six games and they remain without striker Mitrović. Aston Villa bring 7-2-0 form into this clash and they have won four consecutive home games.
Leeds vs. Leicester City
Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 (bet365)
The primary driver behind Leeds’ relegation concerns is their defence, which has conceded almost two goals per game this season. Six of their last seven opponents scored twice and three of their last five opponents scored four or more. It has been better news offensively. The Whites have the 11th best offensive record at home this season. Leeds have found the back of the net in each of their last seven games. These two trends have contributed to consistently high scores, with each of their last seven games going over 2.5 goals. Looking back further, 12 of Leeds’ 19 home games over the last twelve months went over 2.5. Leicester City’s games have seen a fair share of goals too. Over the last twelve months 13 of the Foxes’ 19 away games went over 2.5 goals. Much like with Leeds, defence is a key reason why the Foxes are in relegation trouble. Leicester City have failed to keep a clean sheet in all 17 league games since the World Cup break. They have conceded an average of 2.2 goals away from home this season. Again, much as in the case with Leeds, Leicester City have been stronger offensively. They have the 6th best offensive away record this season with an average 1.5 goals scored per away game. Despite the tension of this being a massive game in the relegation battle, I will side with over 2.5 goals.
Man City vs. Arsenal
Man City in the head-to-head at 1.55 (bet365)
Man City -1.5 at 2.40 (BoomBet, Colossalbet)
Arsenal have stumbled with three consecutive draws, including a 3-3 home draw against the bottom-placed Southampton. Each of their last three opponents scored two or more goals. Man City have gone 15-1-1 at home over the last twelve months and they have won eleven consecutive league matches against Arsenal. City bring a six-game winning streak into this clash as well as a six-game winning streak at home. Arsenal have failed to score in their last three visits to Etihad Stadium and they lost this fixture 5-0 last season. Four of Arsenal’s five defeats over the last twelve months were by 2+ goals and 13 of Man City’s 15 home wins were by 2+ goals. Arsenal remain without key defender William Saliba. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in the five games he has missed.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 (BoomBet, Colossalbet, Dabble)
Fifteen of Man City’s seventeen home games over the last twelve months went over 2.5 goals. Arsenal’s last eight fixtures went over 2.5 goals. Man City’s average home total score this season is 4.3, while Arsenal’s average away total is 2.8. Twelve of the last fifteen league meetings between Man City and Arsenal went over 2.5 goals.
Southampton vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth in the head-to-head at 3.20 (bet365)
Bournemouth +0.5 at 1.65 (bet365)
Southampton have the league-worst 2-4-10 home record this season with a -15 goal difference. The Saints have gone 0-1-4 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Bournemouth have won four of their last seven games, including their last two away fixtures against Leicester City and Tottenham.
Tottenham vs. Man Utd
Man Utd in the head-to-head at 2.40 (Dabble)
Man Utd +0.5 at 1.46 (Dabble)
Tottenham commence life under their new interim manager Ryan Mason. This follows a 2-3 home defeat to Bournemouth and a 6-1 away thrashing at the hands of Newcastle. Newcastle had jumped out to a scarcely believable 5-0 lead inside the first 21 minutes of that match. Prior to that Tottenham were very fortunate not to have lost to Brighton. Manchester United bring a three-game winning streak into this clash and they have won four consecutive games against Tottenham. United have gone 7-1-4 as the away favourite over the last twelve months and they have gone 3-5-0 for the last eight games as the away favourite against Tottenham.