AFL Round 7 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 7 of the 2023 AFL season.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $90,000 competition for St Kilda v Port Adelaide on Friday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.


St Kilda

St Kilda vs. Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide


St Kilda have a poor record against Port Adelaide, however they will relish playing this home game at Marvel Stadium instead of an exotic alternative location like in previous years. St Kilda have gone 3-0 at home this season and they have covered the line in all six matches this year. The most impressive aspect of the Saints’ performances has been their league-leading defence. They have conceded just 59.5 points per game this season. To highlight how good that is, the next best defensive record is held by Geelong at 76.5 points per game. While Port Adelaide bring a three-gaming winning streak into this clash, all three wins were against sides currently outside the top 8. Their two games prior to that against top-8 opponents both ended in defeat. The Power have an average points difference of -34.5 from their two away games so far this season. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.50 (BlueBet).


Brisbane vs. Fremantle



Brisbane have gone 12-2 at The Gabba since 2022 and they have covered the line in each of their last four fixtures at this venue. Fremantle limp into this fixture on the back of three consecutive away defeats and they failed to cover the line in all three of those games. I would back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.14 (Dabble). For those looking for more risk I would actually take a punt on Fremantle to keep the scoreline more respectable than most are predicting. All five of their away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and there will (should!) surely be a reaction following their terrible home defeat to the Western Bulldogs last week. With that in mind, those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble).


Sydney vs. GWS



Sydney aren’t having a great season, however all of their defeats have been to strong teams and they boast a 9-3 home record over the last twelve months. Sydney are currently 10th on the ladder and are 3-0 against teams currently below them. Sydney also boast a 6-2 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. GWS bring a seven-game losing streak away from home into this clash and they were thrashed 112-39 by the Swans at the SCG last year. GWS have gone 2-12 as the underdog over the last twelve months. Given the Swans’ hot and cold form this season I will shy away from the line and margin markets and instead back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.25 (Dabble).


Melbourne vs. North Melbourne

North Melbourne


This is simply a bet against North Melbourne. The Kangaroos bring a 4-game losing streak into this game. North Melbourne have gone 0-6 at the MCG since 2018 and they have gone 1-11 away from home over the last twelve months. Nine of those defeats were by 25+ and eight were by 40+. Over the last decade, all four of North Melbourne’s defeats to Melbourne were by 25+. I would back Melbourne 25+ at 1.32 (Dabble).

West Coast

West Coast vs. Carlton



This is simply a bet against the injury-hit West Coast. The Eagles bring a four-game losing streak into this clash. They have gone 2-7 at home over the last twelve months and they have gone 2-18 as the underdog over the same period. Five of those seven home defeats were by 25+. Carlton won this fixture 116-53 last year and they are unbeaten (3-1-0) against sides currently outside the top-8. I would back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Dabble).


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