The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 36 of the 2022/23 English Premier League. Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
My best bets each week are published on AusSportsTipping.com
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Nielsen’s Gracenote have published their probabilities of relegation for the bottom five clubs with three rounds to play. I’ve added the ‘fair’ odds based on those probabilities in brackets.
Nottingham Forest: 34% (2.94)
Everton: 26% (3.85)
Leicester: 68% (1.47)
Leeds: 73% (1.37)
Southampton: 100% (1.00)
Based on Gracenote’s probabilities, the 1.40 (bet365, Unibet) odds on Leeds offers some value to punters.
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Leeds vs. Newcastle
Newcastle in the head-to-head at 1.71 (Unibet)
Both teams to score at 1.68 (Unibet)
Same-game multi: Newcastle to win and both teams to score at 3.25 (Unibet)
Same-game multi: Newcastle to win and over 2.5 goals at 2.30 (bet365)
Leeds bring 0-1-5 form into this clash, while Newcastle have won eight of their last ten games, including three of their last four away games. Newcastle have gone 7-2-1 as the away favourite over the last twelve months and they won this fixture last season. Both teams scored in each of Leeds’ last ten games, while both teams scored in seven of Newcastle’s last eight wins. More specifically, for those looking at correct score wagering, in seven of Newcastle’s last eight wins, their opponents scored exactly one goal. In Leeds’ last six defeats, they scored exactly one goal.
Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest
Chelsea in the head-to-head at 1.52 (Unibet)
Call me crazy, but I’m backing Chelsea to win a game! They got the monkey off their back with a 3-1 away win over Bournemouth last week and they take on a Nottingham Forest side that has the league-worst 1-3-13 away record. Forest have lost seven consecutive away games coming into this fixture . Nine of their thirteen away defeats were by 2+ goals and nine were to nil.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
Aston Villa in the head-to-head at 2.23 (Unibet)
Aston Villa +0.5 (double chance) at 1.38 (bet365)
Aston Villa have a terrible home record against Tottenham, but this is the best Aston Villa form we’ve seen in many years. Tottenham, meanwhile, bring poor away form into this clash. Villa have won five consecutive home games and they have gone 8-3-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Tottenham have gone 1-1-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and this is the first time in a decade that they have been installed as the away underdog against Aston Villa. Spurs haven’t won away from home since January and they have lost four of their last five away games against sides in the top half of the table.
Fulham vs. Southampton
Fulham in the head-to-head at 2.55 (Unibet)
Fulham +0.5 (double chance) at 1.45 (bet365)
Southampton have the league-worst 2-4-11 home record this season and last week’s results have virtually guaranteed their relegation. The Saints are winless in their last ten games and they have lost six of their last seven fixtures. Fulham endured a tough run of three games against strong opponents, which might explain the inflated odds. Following that run they scored five times to thrash Leicester City last week. It was their their third consecutive win over teams in the bottom half of the table. Fulham are bolstered this week by the return of their top goalscorer, Aleksandar Mitrović, following his suspension.
Brentford vs. West Ham
Brentford in the head-to-head at 2.10 (BlueBet)
Brentford +0.5 (double chance) at 1.28 (bet365)
This fixture is sandwiched between West Ham’s two-leg semi-final fixtures in the Europa Conference League, so the Hammers could be forgiven for being distracted. Brentford have won all three fixtures against West Ham since promotion and the Hammers have gone 1-1-10 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Brentford have only lost one game out of eleven as the home favourite over the last year.
Arsenal vs. Brighton
Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 (bet365)
Over the last year, 16 of Arsenal’s 18 home games went over 2.5 goals, including the last seven. Furthermore, nine of Arsenal’s last eleven fixtures went over 3.5 goals. Over the same period, 12 of Brighton’s 16 away games went over 2.5 goals, including the last three. The last two meetings between Arsenal and Brighton went over 2.5 goals and their last meeting in January saw six total goals.