The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 13 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are usually published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic rotation of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. The average total score in Rounds 1-12 is 60.1, up from 52.4 in 2022. There have been 8.3 tries per game this year, compared to six in 2022.
Reds vs. Blues
The Reds upset the Chiefs last week but the hosts had rotated out nine players for that game. The Reds have gone 1-6 as the underdog over the last twelve months and 0-3 as the home favourite. The Blues, meanwhile, have gone 5-0 as the away favourite. The Reds have gone 1-6 at the line at home over the last twelve months while the Blues have gone 4-1 at the line as the away favourite. Another factor for this fixture is the Reds won last week while the Blues lost. The Reds have gone 1-4 on the back of a win over the last twelve months while the Blues have gone 4-0 in the head-to-head and 3-1 at the line on the back of a defeat. All four of the Reds’ home defeats over the last twelve months were by 8+ points. I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.28 (bet365, Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider the Blues -9.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
As always, the biggest risk for this bet is the squad list for the Blues. Those who are more risk-averse should wait to see if the Blues name a strong squad before considering a bet.
Chiefs vs. Hurricanes
The Chiefs rotated out nine players and suffered a shock home defeat to the Reds last week, so they will be keen to make immediate amends. The Chiefs have gone 7-1 at home over the last twelve months, both in the head-to-head and the line. Their sole defeat was last week with that weakened squad. The Hurricanes thrashed Moana Pasifika last week, but they have an indifferent 5-4 head-to-head and 3-6 line record on the back of a win over the last twelve months. The Wellingtonians have gone 0-3 as the underdog over the last year. The Chiefs have won four straight games against the Hurricanes, including a 33-17 win in Wellington in Round 8. It’s worth noting that 7 of the Chiefs’ last 8 home wins over the Hurricanes were by 1-12 points and the Hurricanes’ three away defeats over the last twelve months were all by 1-12 points. I would back the Chiefs in the head-to-head at 1.35 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider the Chiefs 1-12 at 2.88 (Unibet).
Waratahs vs. Drua
The Waratahs bring a three-game winning streak into this clash and they have won three consecutive home games. This is primarily a bet against the Fijian Drua, however, and their poor away form. The Drua have lost five consecutive away games, four by 13+ margins, and they have gone 2-4 at the line away from home over the last twelve months. The Waratahs won and covered the line in all three previous meetings against the Drua. This includes a 46-17 win in Melbourne in Round 2. All three Waratahs’ wins over the Fijians were by 24+ margins. I would back the Waratahs in the head-to-head at 1.23 (Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider the Waratahs -10.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
Force vs. Brumbies
The Force have gone 5-1 at home over the last twelve months. The Brumbies won last year’s visit to Perth by a one-point margin and their other 2022 win was by a six-point margin in Canberra. The Force covered the line in their last three meetings against the Brumbies and three of the Brumbies’ four away wins over the last twelve months were by 1-12 points. I would back the Force +12.5 at 1.91 (bet365).