The following are betting tips for the semi finals of the 2023 AFL season.
At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $75,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Melbourne and Carlton. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
Melbourne (4) vs. (5) Carlton
You can make a case for both teams. Melbourne have won 7 of their last 9, while Carlton have won 10 of their last 11. Melbourne have gone 11-3 at the MCG this season, however Carlton have won five on the trot away from home. The Blues also beat Melbourne at the MCG in Round 22. Carlton will be without Jack Martin and Harry McKay, while the latest players to be sidelined for Melbourne are Jacob van Rooyen and Angus Brayshaw. Rather than pick a winner, I will back a competitive contest. The lead for either team never eclipsed 18 points in their Round 22 clash. It was the 5th meeting out of the last 6 that was settled by 1-24 points. Narrowing it down further, four of the last six games between Melbourne and Carlton were won by 1-6 points. A low scoring game could be on the cards too. Carlton have played nine times at the MCG this season for an average total score of 140.4. Their average total score away from home this season is 152.9 and their last game against Melbourne saw just 116 points. Carlton’s last five games against Melbourne went under the total and their last four games as the away side against Melbourne went under the total. My bets for this game are:
Port Adelaide (3) vs. (7) GWS
Port Adelaide have gone 10-2 at home this season, however they will be wary of the fact that GWS have gone 8-4 away from home and 6-3 as the away underdog. This is a replay of the two sides’ Round 22 clash, which the Power won comfortably, 21.10 (136) to 13.7 (85). One concern for Port Adelaide, however, is they have been streaky this season. The Power have gone 15-3 on the back of a win but 2-4 on the back of a defeat. They lost their Qualifying Final against Brisbane last week, so their fans will be hoping they can avoid a fifth back-to-back defeat. GWS come into this game having won 9 of their last 12 games, however they have lost their last four games against Port Adelaide. The Giants failed to cover the line in fall four of those defeats. Over the last decade the Power have never lost at home to the Giants by more than 22 points. Six of the Giants’ eight away wins this season were by 1-24 margins. I expect either Port Adelaide will win, or GWS will nick an upset victory. I would place the following bet:
Port Adelaide +23.5 (alternative line) at 1.15 (bet365)